入世后我国物流业的六大发展趋势

随着世界经济的快速发展和现代科学技术的进步，物流产业呈现出六大发展趋势，电子商务物流，绿色物流，物流规模经济，第三方物流，物流国际化及物流标准化，本文通过对这六大发展趋势的总结和分析，结合我国的实际情况，指出了在入世后激烈的竞争状态下，我国现代物流业的发展方向。     

Forecasting crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels

This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels. Theoretically, petroleum inventory levels are a measure of the balance, or imbalance, between petroleum production and demand, and thus provide a good market barometer of crude oil price change. Based on an understanding of petroleum market fundamentals and observed market behavior during the post-Gulf War period, the model was developed with the objectives of being both simple and practical, with required data readily available. As a result, the model is useful to industry and government decision-makers in forecasting price and investigating the impacts of changes on price, should inventories, production, imports, or demand change. This work is partially sponsored by the Office of Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Department of Energy, USA, and was presented at the International Atlantic Economic Conference, Athens, Greece, March 2001.     

The Willingness to Accept Value of Statistical Life Relative to the Willingness to Pay Value: Evidence and Policy Implications

Large disparities between willingness to accept (WTA) and willingness to pay (WTP) based values of statistical life are commonly encountered in empirical studies. Standard economic theory suggests that if a public good is easily substitutable there should be no marked disparity between WTA and WTP values for the good, though the disparity increases with reduced substitutability. However, psychologists have shown that people often treat gains and losses asymmetrically and tend to require a substantially larger increase in wealth to compensate for a loss than the amount they would be willing to pay for an equivalent gain. Although most transport projects may aim to improve safety, situations arise when a relaxation of an existing regulation saves resources but increases the risk of death and injuries. A survey was recently carried out in New Zealand to determine people’s willingness to pay to reduce road risks and their willingness to accept compensation for an increase in risk. This paper reports the disparity observed between the two measures and considers some of the problems posed for policymakers.     

Hirschman's loyalty: Attitude or behavior?

Over the past two decades there has been much controversy over what Hirschman intended by the term loyalty in his bookExit, Voice, and Loyalty. Some have interpreted Hirschman's loyalty as an attitude that deters exit and promotes voice. Others have interpreted Hirschman's loyalty as a distinct behavior, like exit and voice, that results from dissatisfaction. This article examines both views of loyalty simultaneously. First, comprehensive and reliable scales to measure the behavioral responses to dissatisfaction are developed. Second, the relationship between loyalty and the behavioral responses to dissatisfaction are examined. Results of this research indicate that both interpretations are important and together help us better understand how employees behave when they are dissatisfied.