The Performance of Agricultural Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans

The purpose of this article is to evaluate the performance of market advisory services for the 1995–2003 corn and soybean crops. A new database from the Agricultural Market Advisory Services (AgMAS) Project is used in the evaluation. This database should not be subject to survivorship and hindsight biases. Overall, the results provide little evidence that advisory services as a group outperform market benchmarks, particularly after considering risk. The evidence is more positive versus the farmer benchmarks, even after taking risk into account. Results also suggest that it is difficult to predict the pricing performance of advisory services across crop-years.     

Asset Pricing Implications of Firms' Financing Constraints

We use a production-based asset pricing model to investigatewhether financing constraints are quantitatively important forthe cross-section of returns. Specifically, we use GMM to explorethe stochastic Euler equation imposed on returns by optimalinvestment. Our methods can identify the impact of financialfrictions on the stochastic discount factor with cyclical variationsin cost of external funds. We find that financing frictionsprovide a common factor that improves the pricing of cross-sectionalreturns. Moreover, the shadow cost of external funds exhibitsstrong procyclical variation, so that financial frictions aremore important in relatively good economic conditions. (JELE22, E44, G12)     

Intellectual capital and value creation in the production and assembly of vehicles and auto-parts sector in Brazil： A panel data analysis

This work investigates the relationship between intellectual capital and value creation in the sector of production and assembly of vehicles and auto-parts in Brazil. Through the access of the database from the annual industrial research conducted by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, we gathered 865 observations, from 2000 to 2006, of public and private Brazilian companies with more than 100 employees. The database allows the estimate of relevant aggregated variables such as national accounts, gross domestic product, intermediate consumption, as well as propitiates a sectorial study of business strategies and performance, including value added by individual companies. In particular, in this study we use data on variables associated to intellectual capital. To achieve the goal of the study, we consider intellectual capital as defined by Pulic （2000, 2002）, including human capital and structural capital. For the analysis of business performance, we used Pulic＇s VAIC （Value Added Intellectual Cofficient） index as a measure of efficiency of the employed financial and intellectual capital. Regression models were run to verify the relationship among the efficiency in the use of intellectual capital and the profitability of Brazilian companies. The gross income, calculated as before selling, general and administrative expenses, depreciation expenses, amortization and interest expenses, was used as measure of the flows of value creation and the profitability was measured by the gross income to the total assets of the companies. Considering the constructs defined by Pulic （2000, 2002）, we tested, for the Brazilian sector of Production and Assembly of Vehicles and Auto-parts, the following hypotheses： （l） there is a positive relationship between value creation and intellectual capital, （2） there is a positive relationship between value creation and stock of intellectual capital, （3） there is a positive relationship between value creation and efficiency of the employed capital, （4） there is a positive relationship between value creation and efficiency of the human capital, （5） there is a positive relationship between value creation and efficiency of the structural capital. The results of the study, obtained through panel data analysis and through the use static and dynamic models, support the hypotheses that the intellectual capital of the companies, in its flow and stock dimensions, is positively and significantly related to value creation.     

Property development firms IPOs in Brazil： Was there overpricing or not？

Between September 2005 and October 2007, representative companies of the Brazilian residential real estate market adopted a strategy intended to increase their investment capacity by Initial Public Offer （IPO）. The setting at that time was favorable for constructing residential real estate designed for the middle class, in view of two main factors： First, in 2005, a restructuring of the Brazilian finance system had relaxed requirements needed to receive financing for the purchase of residential property; Second, there was substantial demand in the middle class market because most developers had been focusing on the upper class market in order to guarantee the sale resources in the production phase. Thus, it was necessary to enhance the investment capacity of the real estate companies to attend the middle-class demand. These two factors, associated with a favorable outlook for the Brazilian, as well as the global economy, encouraged those representative companies to rapidly increase their investment capacity by IPO in a short time. The focus of this article is to analyze the quality of the investments in the stock of these real estate companies （21 offers were taken into account in the analysis）. In order to identify what these companies＇ expectations were and how they supported their decisions to enter BOVESPA with their designated prices and amounts, correlating offers against the BOVESPA Index （market index） were also analyzed. The results allow concluding that these offers were not supported by validated procedures of pricing, but rather were just speculative offers, even though we do take into account the investment grade granted to the Brazilian economy within the period concerned in our analysis.