Calm After the Storms: Income Distribution and Welfare in Chile, 1987-94

After rising during most—but not all—of the 1960–85period, inequality in Chile seems to have stabilized since around1987. Following the stormy period of economic and politicalreforms of the 1970s and 1980s, no statistically significantLorenz dominance results could be detected since 1987. Scalarmeasures of inequality confirm this picture of stability, butsuggest a slight change in the shape of the density function,with some compression at the bottom being "compensated for"by a stretching at the top. As inequality remained broadly stable,sustained economic growth led to substantial welfare improvementsand poverty reduction, according to a range of measures andwith respect to three different poverty lines. Poverty mixedstochastic dominance tests confirm this result. All of thesefindings are robust to different choices of equivalence scales.     

Conditional Cash Transfers, Schooling, and Child Labor: Micro-Simulating Brazil's Bolsa Escola Program

A growing number of developing economies are providing cashtransfers to poor people that require certain behaviors on theirpart, such as attending school or regularly visiting healthcare facilities. A simple ex ante methodology is proposed forevaluating such programs and used to assess the Bolsa Escolaprogram in Brazil. The results suggest that about 60 percentof poor 10- to 15-year-olds not in school enroll in responseto the program. The program reduces the incidence of povertyby only a little more than one percentage point, however, andthe Gini coefficient falls just half a point. Results are betterfor measures more sensitive to the bottom of the distribution,but the effect is never large.     

Competitiveness, resources, and capabilities: empirical evidence from retail banking

This research aims to identify and measure bank employee perceptions of the determinants of competitiveness in terms of resources, skills, and capabilities within the retail banking sector. All the 40 branches of a leading Portuguese bank—the Caixa Geral de Depósitos—operating in two Portuguese districts were surveyed. Our results show that bank competitiveness differs according to performance evaluation, human resource (HR) planning, the system of incentives, and managerial motivation. They also demonstrate that human capital is a source of success in the business of banks, which relies heavily on stable and enduring relationships with customers. The study also provides recommendations for retail bank managers seeking to refine their HR strategies as a means of improving their competitiveness.     

Investment, credit, and endogenous cycles

This paper presents a general-equilibrium dynamic Ramsey-type model that can generate endogenous cycle. We assume two different representative agents, borrowers and lenders, and financial intermediaries with inside and outside money. We investigate under which conditions this model presents a cyclical relationship between capital and loans. The sources of endogenous fluctuations in this model come from a credit restriction in the representative-borrower problem.     

Are complementary reforms a “luxury” for developing countries?

This paper investigates the impact of complementarity reforms on growth and how it depends on GDP per capita. Based on reform data for six policy areas compiled from various sources during the period 1994–2006 for over 100 countries, we compute composite indicators of reform level and complementarity. We provide qualitative justification for the existence of pair-wise complementarities among policy areas. We then use cross-section and panel data estimates to test the effect of reform level and complementarity on GDP per capita growth. We found reforms to be positively related and their dispersion (or the inverse of complementarity) negatively related to growth, controlling for initial conditions, monetary stability and other structural and institutional variables, as well as endogeneity of reform level and complementarity. We show that the effect of policy complementarity is a stronger condition for sustainable growth in developing than in advanced countries, to conclude that complementary reforms are not a ‘luxury’ for developing countries.     

Impacts of technology readiness on emotions and cognition in Brazil

This study proposes and tests an extended model for consumer adoption of high technology products in a Latin American country (Brazil) by integrating concepts present in the consumer behavior literature: the Consumer Acceptance of Technology model (Kulviwat et al., 2007) and the technology readiness construct (Parasuraman, 2000). The proposed model considers the relationships between cognitive and affective constructs with technology readiness. By means of structural equation modeling conducted on a sample of 435 young consumers, the results indicate significant relationships between the constructs assessed, showing that consumers' cognitive and affective evaluations of new technologies are significantly influenced by their technology readiness. The effects of technology readiness over affective assessments were greater than those relative to cognitive evaluations regarding high-tech innovations. Nonetheless, the results may reflect specific characteristics of Brazilian (and other Latin American) consumers, who are usually more emotive than those of more rational cultures.     

POLICY MAKING FOR INDUSTRIAL COMPETITIVENESS IN PORTUGAL - Patterns of change in a traditional bureaucracy

In Portugal the EEC membership represented a major change in Portuguese Administration functioning. This article uses the new institutionalism approach and the concept of path-dependence to analyse the change in the functioning of a central directorate reponsible for industrial policy. It argues that despite the external pressures for change has altered the directorate operations, there are patterns of continuity which are path-dependent. The response to change shows institutional reproduction in traditional features which is partly due to the reluctance to change traditional methods and partly because of the routines, procedures and norms embedded in the culture.     

The effect of social security,health, demography and technology on retirement

This article studies the determinants of the labor force participation of the elderly and investigates the factors that may account for the increase in retirement in the second half of the last century. We develop a lifecycle general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds Social Security legislation and Medicare. Individuals are ex ante heterogeneous with respect to their preferences for leisure and face uncertainty about labor productivity, health status and out-of-pocket medical expenses. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy in 2000 and is able to reproduce very closely the retirement behavior of the American population. It reproduces the peaks in the distribution of Social Security applications at ages 62 and 65 and the observed facts that low earners and unhealthy individuals retire earlier. It also matches very closely the increase in retirement from 1950 to 2000. Changes in Social Security policy – which became much more generous – and the introduction of Medicare account for most of the expansion of retirement. In contrast, the isolated impact of the increase in longevity was a delaying of retirement.     

Who in Brazil Will Gain from Global Trade Reforms?

The potential impacts of multilateral trade liberalisation on developing countries are the subject of numerous controversies. One particular concern is that Brazil, a major agricultural exporter and a country with one of the world's most unequal income distributions, will reap a substantial share of the potential benefits to developing countries from agricultural trade reform, and that most of those benefits will go to large‐scale commercial farmers rather than to the country's smallholders. This claim is explored via a global general equilibrium model and a national model of Brazil containing multiple agricultural and non‐agricultural households. Brazil is found to account for nearly one‐half of all the benefits to developing countries deriving from global agricultural trade reform. These gains are associated with improvements in the welfare of each group and a lower incidence of poverty. Large‐scale producers gain more than smallholders as they tend to be relatively specialised in export products, but there are important gains to agricultural employees, who are relatively poor, and to urban households, who benefit from the expansion of the agro‐food sector. Overall, there is no discernible impact on income inequality, and no evidence that the gains to commercial farmers occur at the expense of poorer households.     

Selling price,financing premiums,and days on the market

Home buyers face the task of trading off selling price and the time required to sell a property. One factor that may affect this decision is the presence of financing premiums. The effects of financing premiums on the time a single-family home remains on the market is examined in this paper. The question is to what extent home sellers are willing to compromise on financing premiums and make concessions to buyers in order to sell their properties more quickly.The study uses a sample of single-family residential homes sold with assumption financing and new conventional financing. The sample covers segments of time when interest rates were relatively low and stable (1975–1976) and when rates were much higher on average and more volatile (1980).The results show that financing premiums were present in selling prices of assumption-financed home sales during the 1975–1976 period and that sellers were able to capture a premium and maintain the same average time on the market as properties with other types of financing. During a period of unfavorable market conditions, such as 1980, the results indicate that home sellers with assumption financing conceded or negotiated away any premium in order to significantly decrease the number of days their properties stayed on the market for sale.