专家观点比哥本哈根会议更重要的

科尔尼经理Jochen Hauff参加了2009年12月在哥本哈根举行的联合国气候变化大会.全世界都关注着这场国际性大会,每个人都期盼通过此次会议人类能取得重大进步,具体的、实质性的成果能够实现.毫不夸张地说,整个地球的重量仿佛都落到了这座北欧小城上.但在所有该说的都说了该做的都做了之后,我们却发现此次哥本哈根会议的成果并没有达到大多数人预期的效果.笔者认为,比哥本哈根会议对气候变化的影响更大的是企业具体行动的落实.     

Der Einfluss des Versicherungskapitalanlagen-Bewertungsgesetzes (VersKapAG) auf Überschüsse und Überschussbeteiligung in der Lebensversicherung — Eine empirische Untersuchung —

On March 26, 2002 the valuation rules for securities of German insurance companies were amended. From the reporting year ending later than September 29, 2001, firms no longer need to apply the strict rules of short-term investment securities. If assets are classified as held-to-maturity or available-for-sale, temporary impairments need not be recognised in the profit and loss accounts. The legislator wanted to create a level playing field for financial institutions as similar rules were already applicable to banks. As an effect with-profits policies were expected to show a more stable pattern of profit sharing. Analysing data from 1998 to 2003 for German life insurers, no different picture of surplus-sharing emerges. This may be due to the fact that valuation rules are only one mechanism of surplus sharing, and other mechanisms that were well established already serve the insurance industry well enough to compete with other providers of financial products.     

Youth leisure careers during post‐communist transitions in the South Caucasus

This paper reports findings from interview surveys with 1215 respondents, split between the capital cities (Yerevan, Baku and Tbilisi) and one non‐capital region (Kotayk, Aran‐Mugan and Shida Kartli) in each of the three South Caucasus countries – Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. The respondents, who were drawn from households in larger representative household social surveys, were all born between 1970 and 1976 and were aged 31–37 at the time of the fieldwork in 2007. Their life stage transitions from childhood to adulthood had roughly coincided with their countries’ transitions from communism to post‐communism. Data was collected on the samples’ participation in selected leisure activities from age 16 to 30. Similar data was collected on the samples’ careers in education, the labour market, housing and family relationships. This information enables us to identify typical leisure careers and how their development was affected by events in other life domains, all in the context of the macro‐changes that were in process in each of the research locations. The evidence enables both personal leisure careers and aggregate leisure trends in different socio‐demographic groups to be identified This shows that changes in leisure behaviour between age 16 and 30 were neither widening nor narrowing the differences between the leisure of males and females, or those who married and became parents on the one hand, then, on the other, those who were still single and childless at age 30. In contrast, differences by place, and by social class, grew progressively wider, thus raising the social costs of geographical and social mobility. Changes in leisure behaviour between age 16 and 30 were separating young adults into those who participated in little, if any, structured out‐of‐home leisure, whose main leisure spending, if any, was on alcohol and tobacco (typically consumed in homes and neighbourhoods), and those whose leisure was characterised by relatively high and sustained participation in sport, consumption of high culture, and going out to bars, cafes, cinema, discos, etc.     

Models of causal inference: Imperfect but applicable is better than perfect but inapplicable

We assess a recent paper by Durand and Vaara (2009) that advances causal graph modeling as a tool for inferring causes in strategy research. We focus on the Markov condition, a key assumption on which causal graph modeling is based, and show why this condition is invariably violated in strategic management in general and the resource‐based view of the firm in particular. We then introduce vector space modeling as a quantitative alternative to causal graph modeling, and consider how improved methods of causal inference might enhance our ability to test some of the central propositions of the resource‐based view. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Are there free rides out of a recession? The case of Switzerland

During the 2008/2009 recession, most countries resorted to discretionary fiscal policy measures. In this paper, we run two simulations with the KOF Swiss Economic Institute’s macroeconomic model to assess how both the Swiss stimulus measures, and the measures taken by Switzerland’s major trading partners, have affected the Swiss economy. The KOF baseline estimate incorporates fiscal stimulus packages in Switzerland and abroad. We re-run the model, modifying the exogenous variables to represent situations in which no fiscal action was taken (a) in Switzerland and (b) elsewhere. We find that the spillover from the foreign efforts to curb the recession dwarfs the effect of the domestic stimulus packages. In addition to making its own (rather limited) efforts to fight the recession, Switzerland also took a long free-ride that far exceeded the short one it paid for.     

Toward The Networked City? Translating Technological ideals and Planning Models in Water and Sanitation Systems in Dar es Salaam

One of the most influential ideals for constructing and managing cities and infrastructures worldwide is that of the ‘networked city'. This ideal refers to the technological design and morphology of cities integrated and ordered by infrastructure networks and to a specific model in the operation, use and planning of infrastructures. Engineers, planners and public health officials have aspired to align with this circulating ideal of urban modernity, hygiene and rationalization of nature in (re)producing cities worldwide. Like many cities in the global South, Dar es Salaam cannot be characterized by universal access to centralized water and sewerage networks. While formal institutions, planning documents and strategies reflect significations, as well as organizational and planning models of a networked city, its urban environments are shaped by hybrid arrangements manifesting unequal access to water and sanitation services. We build on postcolonial critique in urban studies and science and technology studies to inquire into this contradiction by addressing the translation of the ideal of the networked city in Dar es Salaam. Our objective is to uncover the negotiations over the translation of this hegemonic model, and to delineate the scope of creativity in reinventing alternative urban modernities that defy simplistic notions of technology transfer.