Linear versus process tracing approaches to judgment modelling: A new perspective on cue importance

For a bankruptcy prediction problem, the judgment formation process is studied using linear models and process tracing models. The linear models are constructed using traditional linear discriminant analysis techniques. The process tracing models are constructed using computer-generated algorithmically-based decision nets. All the models presented show good predictive accuracy. However, the linear models and process tracing models diverge widely on several measures of cue importance. This divergence, for a fairly straightforward problem, is intriguing since virtually all the evidence in the accounting literature about cue importance is based on linear models research. The importance of different information cues to decision-makers is clearly a critical issue in the design of effective accounting information systems. Thus, this study suggests the need for much more careful attention to the complex question of assessing cue importance.     

Cross-Subsidization,Cost Allocation,and Tacit Coordination

This paper considers the prospect that multiproduct firms facing each other in separate markets might tacitly coordinate their production through strategic common service cost allocations and mutually benefit from such action as a consequence. Our analysis suggests that decentralization cum tacit coordination may be possible in equilibrium, with or without public disclosure of allocation choices. In turn, tacit coordination may contribute to explanations for multiproduct firms' decisions to decentralize. The implications for trade oversight bodies are ambiguous. While tacit coordination results in an anti-competitive distortion toward monopolies, it also induces greater specialization which reduces the diseconomies of scope.     

The impact of international listings on risk : Implications for capital market integration

In this paper, we examine the impact of international listing on common-stock risk. While previous research has used event study methodology, our research focuses on permanent shifts in risk. Different measures of risk are estimated to test for intertemporal shifts in risk attributable to an overseas listing. No significant shifts in risk from international listing are documented. The results are robust with respect to the location and year of listing. These findings suggest that: (1) markets are already reasonably well integrated; or (2) listing is an ineffective mechanism for reducing segmentation.     

Comment: Policy First,Research Afterward— The History of RESPA

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics -     

Detection of Financial Time Series Turning Points: A New CUSUM Approach Applied to IPO Cycles

This paper presents a new Cumulative Sum approach for the detection of turning points in financial time series that are subject to cyclical mean level and volatility regime shifts. The new CUSUM approach is applied to the problem of detecting turning points in hot issue markets for Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), thus providing a multi-dimensional characterization of states of the IPO cycle.     

Discussion of “Earnings Surprises,Growth Expectations,and Stock Returns,or, Don't Let an Earnings Torpedo Sink Your Portfolio”

Review of Accounting Studies -     

Why entrepreneurs don't scale

It's well known that many executives who excel at starting businesses or projects fizzle out--in other words, they fail to "scale"--as their ventures grow. But the reasons have remained fuzzy. In this article, leadership coach John Hamm identifies four management tendencies that work for small-company or business-unit leaders but become Achilles' heels as those individuals try to run larger organizations. The first tendency is loyalty to comrades. In entrepreneurial mode, you need to lead as though you're in charge of a combat unit on the wrong side of enemy lines. But blind loyalty can become a liability in managing a complex organization. The second tendency, task orientation, is critical in driving toward a big product launch, but excessive attention to detail can cause a large organization to lose sight of its long-term goals. The third tendency, single-mindedness, is important in a visionary unleashing a revolutionary product or service on the world but can limit the company's potential as it grows. And the fourth tendency, working in isolation, is fine for the brilliant scientist focused on an ingenious idea. But it's disastrous for a leader whose expanding organization increasingly relies on many other people. Leaders who scale deal honestly with problems and quickly weed out nonperformers. They see past distractions and establish strategic priorities. They learn how to deal effectively with diverse employees, customers, and external constituencies. And, most important, they make the company's continuing health and welfare their top concern.