Relationships between development factors of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation

The article describes long-term possibilities for participation in domestic machine engineering in major economic projects. The basic relationships between economic, institutional, and technological factors of regional development are identified. Some ideas are proposed for the substantiation of innovative development programs for the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation.     

Model-Based and Nonparametric Approaches to Clustering for Data Compression in Actuarial Applications

Clustering is used by actuaries in a data compression process to make massive or nested stochastic simulations practical to run. A large data set of assets or liabilities is partitioned into a user-defined number of clusters, each of which is compressed to a single representative policy. The representative policies can then simulate the behavior of the entire portfolio over a large range of stochastic scenarios. Such processes are becoming increasingly important in understanding product behavior and assessing reserving requirements in a big-data environment. This article proposes a variety of clustering techniques that can be used for this purpose. Initialization methods for performing clustering compression are also compared, including principal components, factor analysis, and segmentation. A variety of methods for choosing a cluster's representative policy is considered. A real data set comprising variable annuity policies, provided by Milliman, is used to test the proposed methods. It is found that the compressed data sets produced by the new methods, namely, model-based clustering, Ward's minimum variance hierarchical clustering, and k-medoids clustering, can replicate the behavior of the uncompressed (seriatim) data more accurately than those obtained by the existing Milliman method. This is verified within sample by examining location variable totals of the representative policies versus the uncompressed data at the five levels of compression of interest. More crucially it is also verified out of sample by comparing the distributions of the present values of several variables after 20 years across 1000 simulated scenarios based on the compressed and seriatim data, using Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit tests and weighted sums of squared differences.     

A systems approach to forecast agricultural land transformation and soil environmental risk from economic,policy, and cultural scenarios in the north central United States (2012–2062)

Grassland conversion to row-crop production in the north central United States has been a growing threat to socio-economic and environmental sustainability for producers, conservationists, and policy-makers alike. We used a system dynamics model of the region to forecast agriculturally driven land transformation through mid-twenty-first century. The base-case scenario projection showed that farmland area continued to increase, from under 200,000?km² to over 230,000?km². Unmitigated, the soil environmental risk (SER) of such changes reached conservative estimates of Dust Bowl-era externalities. Systems analyses show that reducing livestock production costs, doubling conservation compliance requirements, and livestock–cropping integration had the largest impact on grassland conservation and mitigating SER. The largest SER effects came from eliminating conservation incentives or raising cultivation incentives, despite improvements in reduced tillage and enhanced agronomy. Several system archetypes were identified within the policy scenarios: ‘fixes that backfire’ and ‘success-to-the-successful’. For scenarios creating favourable impacts, time delays caused some behaviours to worsen before positive gains were realized. If implemented, patience and persistence to ensure that these scenarios reach their full potential will be necessary. Our scenarios provide quantitative forecasts around measures for sustainable intensification. These projections can aid regional stakeholders in enhancing discussions currently taking place about sustainable agriculture in the region.     

Prices and returns on paintings: An exercise on how to price the priceless

Art is priceless, but paintings, and other objects, have been sold on markets since the time of the Roman Empire. In this paper, we describe a method for constructing a price index for paintings and compare this index to the indices of various financial markets. In particular, we discuss whether the price of art is related to financial markets, whether the art market is weakly efficient, and whether it is more or less risky than financial markets.     

Black business ownership in the rural south

The relatively low business ownership rate among blacks nationwide (12.5 per 1,000 people) is even lower in the rural South (8.8 per 1,000). This study uses Census Bureau data to document the level of business ownership among blacks in the rural South and to explore a number of hypotheses regarding the low level of business ownership among rural blacks and the variation from state to state. The size of the black population in the rural areas of a state is negatively correlated with the rural black business ownership rate in the state, while the education level, income level and homeownership level of blacks in rural areas of a state is positively correlated with the rural black business ownership rate. However, it appears that statewide economic conditions may be more closely related to the level of rural black business ownership than are characteristics of rural blacks.     

Knowledge and attitudes of Bahraini adolescents towards obesity

The aim of this study is to evaluate the knowledge and attitudes of Bahraini secondary students towards obesity. A multistage stratified sampling procedure was used to select 742 adolescents aged 14 to 19 years. The findings revealed that the knowledge of adolescents toward causes and complications of obesity was quite sufficient. However, adolescents were more likely to believe many food fads related to reducing weight. Lack of physical excercise, excessive food intake and heredity were the main reasons given by adolescents for obesity. Girls were more likely to depend on television (71—3%) and newspapers and magazine (55—6%) as sources of nutrition education than boys (66—7% and 44—8%, respectively). It was concluded that the school curriculum should include more information about nutritional problems prevalent in the community.