ALCOHOL MARKETING,ADOLESCENT DRINKING AND PUBLICATION BIAS IN LONGITUDINAL STUDIES: A CRITICAL SURVEY USING META‐ANALYSIS

Abstract This paper presents a meta‐analysis of prospective cohort (longitudinal) studies of alcohol marketing and adolescent drinking, which accounts for publication bias. The paper provides a summary of 12 primary studies of the marketing–drinking relationship. Each primary study surveyed a sample of youth to determine baseline drinking status and marketing exposure, and re‐surveyed the youth to determine subsequent drinking outcomes. Logistic analyses provide estimates of the odds ratio for effects of baseline marketing variables on adolescent drinking at follow‐up. Using meta‐regression analysis, two samples are examined in this paper: 23 effect‐size estimates for drinking onset (initiation); and 40 estimates for other drinking behaviours (frequency, amount, bingeing). Marketing variables include ads in mass media, promotion portrayals, brand recognition and subjective evaluations by survey respondents. Publication bias is assessed using funnel plots that account for ‘missing’ studies, bivariate regressions and multivariate meta‐regressions that account for primary study heterogeneity, heteroskedasticity, data dependencies, publication bias and truncated samples. The empirical results are consistent with publication bias, omitted variable bias in some studies, and lack of a genuine effect, especially for mass media. The paper also discusses ‘dissemination bias’ in the use of research results by primary investigators and health policy interest groups.     

The Interaction of Market Failure and Structural Adjustment in Producer Credit and Land Markets: The Case of Nicaragua

While nonprofit organizations serve the community in significant ways, their heavy reliance on philanthropic and government funding is increasingly not sustainable, especially in the wake of economic downturns. The application of social entrepreneurial principles — including social enterprise activities — can improve the sustainability of the business model of nonprofits, while bolstering management capacity and enhancing mission. This paper argues that the current funding model of the nonprofit sector should be disrupted in order to achieve a greater level of financial sustainability and mission-driven success.     

Advertising and US alcoholic beverage demand: system-wide estimates

The effects of advertising on consumption of alcoholic beverages in the US are analysed. The goal is to obtain evidence on the importance of advertising at the level of beverage demand(beer, wine, spirits) and for total consumption of alcohol (per capita gallons of ethanol). A three-equation conditional demand system is estimated that includes own- and cros-beverage advertising as explanatory variables. Four models of the differential demand system are estimated, including the Rotterdam, AID, CBS, and NBR models, using annual US data for the period 1964-90 on beverage consumption, prices, expednitures, and real advertising. Estimates are obtained of the complete matrix of own- and cross-elascities for each beverage’ price and advertising. At the beverage level, the results indicate a positive butr very small effect of advertising on beverage consumption, with most of the impact due to wine advertising and non due to beer advertising. There is no efect of advertising in the composite demand function for alcohol. Hence, the results from system-wide modelling suggest that alcohol advertising serves to reallocate brand sales, with no effect on total ethanol consumption and very small effects on beverage consumption.     

Innovation management tools: implementing technology watch as a routine for adaptation

Innovation management (IM) is a multidisciplinary field which has been growing for the past few decades. However, the management of innovation is often considered equivalent to technology management or the management of research and development. By focusing on a set of small- and medium-sized enterprises operating in a medium-high-tech industry, the paper intends to determine the characteristics of IM tools. In particular, we address one of these tools, technology watch (TW), and define a set of generic stages to introduce the most relevant roles for its implementation. TW consists of the systematic observation, analysis and use of technological information, allowing companies to be aware of their external environment and learn from it. Through the implementation of TW processes, companies are able to assess and adapt their current technological base and the fit of their internal competences to the signals coming from the external environment.     

Early Warning for Currency Crises: What Is the Role of Financial Openness?

The paper explores whether financial openness—capital account openness and gross capital inflows—makes countries vulnerable to currency crises. A quarterly dataset on 46 advanced and emerging market economies (AEs and EMEs) during 1975Q1–2011Q4 is used, with the period after Q2 2007 used for out‐of‐sample testing. The key findings are: (1) capital account openness is associated with lower probability of currency crises, but less so for EMEs; (2) surges in gross capital flows are associated with increased risk of currency crises; and (3) the model performs well out‐of‐sample, confirming that early warning models are helpful in judging relative vulnerability.     

Raw materials price and technological uncertainty in a small open economy

This paper examines the implications of raw materials price uncertainty for capital allocation and compares the impact of production uncertainty and raw materials price uncertainty. It shows that the economy may avoid risk by allocating more capital in a sector using an input (for example, raw materials) which has a random price. This contrasts with multiplicative production uncertainty case, in which the economy avoids risk by allocating less capital to the risky (uncertainty) sector. Input efficiency uncertainty and materials input price uncertainty have the same implications for a raw-materials-importing economy, but quite opposite implications for a raw-materials-exporting economy.     

Results of a Delphi survey in drawing up the input-output tables for Catalonia

This work presents the results of an ambitious and innovative use of the Delphi technique in supplying a quantitative economic model, specifically in the preparation of the Input-Output Tables for Catalonia (TIOC 2001). Using this technique for obtaining subjective information from experts comes forward as a valid and reliable option for improving the quality of the data with which the Input-Output tables are constructed, also providing further economic and social advantages. The application presented thus opens up an interesting field of development for this technique and also gives several contributions for appraising the execution of a Delphi exercise of this type.