A spatial theory of party formation

Members of an assembly that chooses policies on a series of multidimensional ideological issues have incentives to coalesce and coordinate their votes, forming political parties. If an agent has an advantage to organize a party at a lower cost, a unique party forms and the policy outcome moves away from the Condorcet winning policy, to the benefit of party members. If all agents have the same opportunities to coalesce into parties, at least two parties form. The results are robust to the consideration of an endogenous agenda and to generalizations of the distribution of preferences.     

Advertising and US alcoholic beverage demand: system-wide estimates

The effects of advertising on consumption of alcoholic beverages in the US are analysed. The goal is to obtain evidence on the importance of advertising at the level of beverage demand(beer, wine, spirits) and for total consumption of alcohol (per capita gallons of ethanol). A three-equation conditional demand system is estimated that includes own- and cros-beverage advertising as explanatory variables. Four models of the differential demand system are estimated, including the Rotterdam, AID, CBS, and NBR models, using annual US data for the period 1964-90 on beverage consumption, prices, expednitures, and real advertising. Estimates are obtained of the complete matrix of own- and cross-elascities for each beverage’ price and advertising. At the beverage level, the results indicate a positive butr very small effect of advertising on beverage consumption, with most of the impact due to wine advertising and non due to beer advertising. There is no efect of advertising in the composite demand function for alcohol. Hence, the results from system-wide modelling suggest that alcohol advertising serves to reallocate brand sales, with no effect on total ethanol consumption and very small effects on beverage consumption.     

ALCOHOL MARKETING,ADOLESCENT DRINKING AND PUBLICATION BIAS IN LONGITUDINAL STUDIES: A CRITICAL SURVEY USING META‐ANALYSIS

Abstract This paper presents a meta‐analysis of prospective cohort (longitudinal) studies of alcohol marketing and adolescent drinking, which accounts for publication bias. The paper provides a summary of 12 primary studies of the marketing–drinking relationship. Each primary study surveyed a sample of youth to determine baseline drinking status and marketing exposure, and re‐surveyed the youth to determine subsequent drinking outcomes. Logistic analyses provide estimates of the odds ratio for effects of baseline marketing variables on adolescent drinking at follow‐up. Using meta‐regression analysis, two samples are examined in this paper: 23 effect‐size estimates for drinking onset (initiation); and 40 estimates for other drinking behaviours (frequency, amount, bingeing). Marketing variables include ads in mass media, promotion portrayals, brand recognition and subjective evaluations by survey respondents. Publication bias is assessed using funnel plots that account for ‘missing’ studies, bivariate regressions and multivariate meta‐regressions that account for primary study heterogeneity, heteroskedasticity, data dependencies, publication bias and truncated samples. The empirical results are consistent with publication bias, omitted variable bias in some studies, and lack of a genuine effect, especially for mass media. The paper also discusses ‘dissemination bias’ in the use of research results by primary investigators and health policy interest groups.     

The disabling effects of enabling social policies on organisations’ human capital development practices for women

Paid parental leave and externally provided childcare are social policies designed to enhance parents' labour force participation. These policies influence not only men's and women's decisions regarding their labour market activity but also organisational decision makers' (ODMs) expectations about their employees' availability to work and thus, their willingness to invest in their employees' human capital. Using a sample of over 13,000 individuals from 19 countries, we investigate the interaction between gender and social policies on human capital development practices. In line with statistical discrimination theory, which suggests that ODMs hold different expectations about female and male productivity, we find that paid parental leave and externally provided childcare are negatively associated with the provision of human capital development for women but not for men.