Truth claims and explanatory claims—An ontological typology of futures studies

Classifications of futures research are usually based on epistemological differences, but we complete these with ontological considerations. The article presents a typology of forecasts, i.e. statements on future events or states. It has two dimensions, truth claim and explanatory claim; each dimension has two values, making the claim or not making the claim. The four outcomes are: forecasts which make both truth claims and explanatory claims (predictions); forecasts which make truth claims, but not explanatory claims (prognoses); forecasts which make explanatory claims, but not truth claims (science fiction); and forecasts which make neither truth claims nor explanatory claims (utopias or dystopias). We regard each outcome as an ideal type, against which forecasts can be measured. We illustrate the use of the typology by presenting an example of each outcome.     

Fundamental Determinants of Real Estate Prices: A Panel Study of German Regions

This paper aims at establishing empirical facts on the fundamental determinants of real estate prices. It contributes to the literature by analysing a unique panel dataset covering a wide range of real estate market data and other economic variables for nearly 100 German cities. Several robust fundamental determinants are identified, among them the supply-side factors of construction activity and housing stock as well as the demand-side factors of apartment rents, market size, age structure, local infrastructure and rental prices. Results suggest that these factors are robustly linked to fundamental real estate prices and thus can be used to detect misalignments of market prices.     

Representations of technology in the “Technical Stories” for children of Otto Witt, early 20th century Swedish technology educator

Children’s fiction in school libraries have played and still play a role in mediating representations of technology and attitudes towards technology to schoolchildren. In early 20th century Sweden, elementary education, including textbooks and literature that were used in teaching, accounted for the main mediation of technological knowledge to schoolchildren. An investigation of children’s literature for schools is therefore important in order to understand what was considered worth knowing about technology at the time. The aim of this article is therefore to analyse the representations of technology and attitudes towards technology that were mediated through two children’s fiction books in Swedish elementary school libraries in the 1910s. We have limited the analysis of empirical material to the books Technical Stories for Young and Old (Tekniska sagor för stora och små, 1914) and Technical Stories of the War for Young and Old (Krigets tekniska sagor för stora och små, 1915) by the Swedish inventor, author and technology educator Otto Witt. Gauging Witt’s influence on the schoolchildren and educators of his time is very difficult, but in this first English-language article on his “technical stories” one can conclude that he was in many ways unique and probably fairly well-read in the schools of early 20th century Sweden and onward. He was also a particularly perceptive forerunner of today’s technology and science educators in his use of anthropomorphism as an educational tool.     

Captives zur Absicherung von Extremrisiken? Eine Untersuchung am Beispiel der OIL Insurance Limited

The use of captive insurance companies (captives) is quite common among big and international companies. Generally, captives are used to insure against high frequency/low severity risks. However, we can find captives which have been founded to deal with extreme risks as well. An example is the OIL Insurance Limited (OIL Insurance). In this context, we examine from a theoretical perspective whether captives are suitable for insurance against catastrophe risks. We show that regarding actuarial aspects captives have advantages in comparison to internal self-insurance and disadvantages in comparison to external insurance. The foundation of industry captives through the association of several companies can solve some of the problems, but further criteria especially costs have to be considered. Based on the developed arguments, we analyse whether our case example OIL Insurance is an appropriate instrument to transfer extreme risks.     

Old captains at the helm: Chairman age and firm performance

This paper examines whether the chairmen of the boards (COBs) impose their life cycles on the firms over which they preside. Using a large sample of unlisted firms, we find a robust negative relation between COB age and firm performance. COBs age much like ‘ordinary’ people. Their cognitive abilities deteriorate, and they experience significant shifts in motivation. Deteriorating cognitive abilities are the main driver of the performance effect that we observe. The results imply that succession planning problems in unlisted firms are real. Mandatory retirement age clauses cannot solve these problems.     

The HR quadriad: a framework for the analysis of HRM in project-based organizations

This paper introduces the idea of the ‘HR quadriad’ as a framework for the analysis of HRM as a collective, configurational, and complementary system of roles and practices. The framework highlights the interplay between HR specialists, line managers, project managers, and project workers in the implementation of HR practices. On the basis of a multiple case study comprising six project-based organizations, two organizational factors are singled out as important for the design of the HR quadriad: (1) the nature of project work as either intra-functional or inter-functional, and (2) project participation as either focused or fragmented. The paper gives empirical support to recent research on HRM favoring the synergic integration of the elements of HRM systems designed in a way that acknowledges internal coherence and organizational conditions.     

Cross-border acquisitions and taxes: efficiency and tax revenues

Abstract .  We develop a theoretical oligopoly model to study how international differences in profit and capital gains taxes affect foreign acquisitions. Reductions in foreign profit taxes tend to trigger inefficient foreign acquisitions, while reductions in foreign capital gains taxes may trigger efficient foreign acquisitions. Foreign acquisitions can increase domestic tax revenues even when profit taxes are evaded. The reason is that bidding competition between foreign firms ensures that all benefits from the acquisition, including tax advantages, are captured by a domestic seller paying capital gains taxes. Tax code issues, such as the treatment of goodwill, are shown to affect the pattern of foreign acquisitions.     

The long-run determinants of inequality: What can we learn from top income data?

This paper studies determinants of income inequality using a newly assembled panel of 16 countries over the entire twentieth century. We focus on three groups of income earners: the rich (P99–100), the upper middle class (P90–99), and the rest of the population (P0–90). The results show that periods of high economic growth disproportionately increases the top percentile income share at the expense of the rest of the top decile. Financial development is also pro-rich and the outbreak of banking crises is associated with reduced income shares of the rich. Trade openness has no clear distributional impact (if anything openness reduces top shares). Government spending, however, is negative for the upper middle class and positive for the nine lowest deciles but does not seem to affect the rich. Finally, tax progressivity reduces top income shares and when accounting for real dynamic effects the impact can be important over time.     

The Impact of Information on Consumer Preferences for Different Animal Food Production Methods

The motivation for the present study is to understand food choice in relation to animal food production and to study how preferences are influenced by information. To do this, we carried out a choice experiment. In the analysis, we focus on chickens reared indoors and outdoors and chicken labelled campylobacter-free versus non-labelled chicken. The results suggest that there is a positive willingness to pay (WTP) both for chicken reared outdoors and for campylobacter-free labelled chicken. Information about rearing methods resulted in a higher WTP for chicken reared outdoors, while information about campylobacter had both positive and negative effects on respondents’ WTP. The highest increase in WTP for campylobacter-free labelled chicken was found for one of the high risk groups, individuals with poor kitchen hygiene.