REVERSE REGRESSIONS AND LONG‐HORIZON FORECASTING

Long‐horizon predictive regressions in finance pose formidable econometric problems when estimated using available sample sizes. Hodrick in 1992 proposed a remedy that is based on running a reverse regression of short‐horizon returns on the long‐run mean of the predictor. Unfortunately, this only allows the null of no predictability to be tested, and assumes stationary regressors. In this paper, we revisit long‐horizon forecasting from reverse regressions, and argue that reverse regression methods avoid serious size distortions in long‐horizon predictive regressions, even when there is some predictability and/or near unit roots. Meanwhile, the reverse regression methodology has the practical advantage of being easily applicable when there are many predictors. We apply these methods to forecasting excess bond returns using the term structure of forward rates, and find that there is indeed some return forecastability. However, confidence intervals for the coefficients of the predictive regressions are about twice as wide as those obtained with the conventional approach to inference. We also include an application to forecasting excess stock returns. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The future of Facebook fundraising

• Facebook is the world's largest social network, and charities are keen to create communities and engage with supporters there; yet few are using any of Facebook's tools to raise money effectively. On the basis of data from Facebook and JustGiving, we will learn how to prompt donors to share their donations, the pound value of a Facebook share, and how to generate the best value from shares. We will also reveal Facebook's best practices for community building, explore the trend for Timeline integration and underline the importance of mobile in the future for Facebook fundraising.

Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Packs,Troops and Herds: Prosocial Cooperatives and Innovation in the New Normal

Prosocial organizations are emerging to tackle the effects of a New Normal. As they navigate its fragile and liquid institutional membranes, they prioritize cooperative forms of governance. These forms allow for collaboration and democratic decision-making necessary for the development of innovative solutions in this new context. At the same time, the high coordination costs of cooperatives lead to significant market pressures. Therefore, understanding when and under what conditions these new cooperatives innovate and strive is important as it provides insight into whether and how these ventures can become a viable alternative in this changing landscape. Using configurational analyses of organizational enablers leading to innovation in 40 entrepreneurial cooperatives, we identify three approaches: Attentive Pack, Eclectic Troop, and Wandering Herd, showing that innovative outcomes can indeed emerge under traditional cooperative features emphasizing collectivism. However, the pursuit of higher novelty requires a shift to more individualistic, business-as-usual, approaches. The New Normal does indeed enhance entrepreneurial activity, but of a different kind comprising novel sets of antecedents and outcomes, which we show can easily become the new dominant form of venturing required in this new context.     

Demand-side inertia factors and their benefits for innovativeness

Inertia reflects a firm’s inability to change or innovate and may be fostered by many sources. Though researchers have focused on internal inertia factors, we examine inertia factors within a firm’s customer base: switching costs, customer preference stability, and network externalities. New products at 279 firms are examined to assess the role of these demand-side inertia factors in determining innovativeness and, ultimately, financial performance. The inertia factors are hypothesized to have differential innovativeness effects for early and late entrants. Overall, demand-side factors affect innovativeness positively, contrasting with firm-based factors (e.g., routines or assets), which typically inhibit innovativeness. Consumer preference stability is the only factor negatively related to innovativeness, though only for early entrants. Network externalities and switching costs increase innovativeness (particularly for early entrants). Demand-side inertia factors are critical determinants of innovativeness and may now be placed within the previously internally focused set of factors engendering early mover advantage.     

Birth,death and public good provision

We explore the effect of fixed versus dynamic group membership on public good provision. In a novel experimental design, we modify the traditional voluntary contribution mechanism (VCM) by periodically replacing old members of a group with new members over time. Under this dynamic, overlapping generations matching protocol we find that average contributions experience significantly less decay over time relative to a traditional VCM environment with fixed group membership and a common termination date. These findings suggest that the traditional pattern of contribution and decay seen in many public goods experiments may not accurately reflect behavior in groups with changing membership, as is the case in many real-world environments.     

Towards an ethical dimension of decision making in organizations

There is a growing need to increase our understanding of ethical decision making in U.S. based organizations. The authors examine the complexity of creating uniform ethical standards even when the meaning of ethical behavior is being debated. The nature of these controversies are considered, and three important dimensions for ethical decision making are discussed: leaders with integrity and a strong sense of social responsibility, organization cultures that foster dialogue and dissent, and organizations that are willing to reflect on and learn from their actions. Leaders with integrity demonstrate consistency between vision and action that promotes trust, regularly concern themselves with developing moral standards, and are proactive agents of change in an increasingly complex world. Organizational cultures that support dialogue suspend judgments and increase their capacity to think together towards new levels of understanding. Ethical concepts evolve in these organizational cultures, and actions are informed and responsible. Organizations that reflect on their actions engage in double loop learning so that the time taken to reflect on the past and present leads to a more judicious and ethical future. In essence, the authors point to organizational guidelines for ethical decision making that lead to an increase in members' capacity to think and act ethically. Jonathan Z. Gottlieb is a consultant to organizations and a Ph.D. Candidate in Organizational Psychology. His interests include organization redesign, leadership and team development, ethics, and role definition for organization development practitioners. Jyotsna Sanzgiri is Dean of Organizational Psychology Programs at the California School of Professional Psychology — Alameda. She received her Ph.D. in business Administration and her M.B.A. Her interests include organizational theory and core values across cultures, and the historical underpinnings of organization development and behavior.     

The relationship between governance structure and risk management approaches in Japanese venture capital firms

This paper attempts to understand what drives Japanese venture capital (JVC) fund managers to select either active managerial monitoring or portfolio diversification to manage their firms' investment risks [J. Bus. Venturing 4 (1989) 231]. Unlike U.S. venture capitalists that use active managerial monitoring to gain private information in order to maximize returns [J. Finance 50 (1995) 301], JVCs have traditionally used portfolio diversification to attenuate investment risks [Hamada, Y., 2001. Nihon no Bencha Kyapitaru no Genkyo (Current State of Japanese Venture Capital), Nihon Bencha Gakkai VC Seminar, May 7]. We found that performance pay is positively related to active monitoring and that management ownership is positively related to active monitoring and negatively related to portfolio diversification. The managerial implication of our study is that venture capitalists should be as concerned about the structure of their incentive systems for their fund managers as they are for their investee-firm entrepreneurs. Agency theory says that contingent compensation is a self-governing mechanism for individual effort that is difficult to measure and verify. When properly applied, equity ownership and performance-based pay can have powerful influencing effects on the strategic choices of managers.     

Non-Governmental Organizations, Shareholder Activism, and Socially Responsible Investments: Ethical, Strategic, and Governance Implications

In this article, we document the growing influence of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in the realm of socially responsible investing (SRI). Drawing from ethical and economic perspectives on stakeholder management and agency theory, we develop a framework to understand how and when NGOs will be most influential in shaping the ethical and social responsibility orientations of business using the emergence of SRI as the primary influencing vehicle. We find that NGOs have opportunities to influence corporate conduct via direct, indirect, and interactive influences on the investment community, and that the overall influence of NGOs as major actors in socially responsible investment is growing, with attendant consequences for corporate strategy, governance, and social performance.