A NOTE ON SEMIPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF FINITE MIXTURES OF DISCRETE CHOICE MODELS WITH APPLICATION TO GAME THEORETIC MODELS*

We view a game abstractly as a semiparametric mixture distribution and study the semiparametric efficiency bound of this model. Our results suggest that a key issue for inference is the number of equilibria compared to the number of outcomes. If the number of equilibria is sufficiently large compared to the number of outcomes, root‐n consistent estimation of the model will not be possible. We also provide a simple estimator in the case when the efficiency bound is strictly above zero.     

A Pre-purchase Product Trial of a Monopolist with Multiple Products

For the heterogeneous consumers who do not know their individual utilities from a new product, a pre-purchase product trial would be helpful. We found out that a monopoly firm with two similar products would have a strong incentive not to allow a pre-purchase product trial, even though it is socially optimal to allow it. Furthermore, it is more likely for a monopoly firm with a pre-purchase product trial policy to introduce a new product to the market when introducing a new product is socially optimal.     

PanelWhiz and the Australian Longitudinal Data Infrastructure in Economics

PanelWhiz is a graphical user interface that was written for the statistical software, Stata SE/MP Version 11 (Win/Mac/Linux) or later, which allows users to extract data from complicated multi‐level longitudinal datasets in an easy and efficient manner. Specifically, Australian datasets, such as Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey, Medicine in Australia: Balancing Employment and Life, Growing Up in Australia: The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children, Footprints in Time—The Longitudinal Study of Indigenous Children and Consumer Attitudes, Sentiments & Expectations in Australia, have already been integrated into the common platform of the PanelWhiz system.     

Reciprocity and voting

In this paper we present a two-period model where a left-wing and a right-wing political party are solely interested in the policies they pursue. We assume that voters display reciprocal behavior. By contrast, political parties are not motivated by reciprocity. We show that reciprocity may have dramatic consequences for models of voting behavior. The incentive to be kind to the median voter may ensure that a position closer to the median voter's position is adopted even if political parties are not directly interested in being elected and cannot commit to a political stance during an election campaign. Moreover, reciprocity increases incumbency advantages.     

ALICE: Composite leading indicators for euro area inflation cycles

This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators with the aim to provide early signals for turning points in the euro area headline and core inflation cycles. The headline (core) ALICE leads the reference cycle by three (four) months and the lead times extend to five (nine) months based on longer-leading series. Both ALICE indicators signalled turning points in the inflation cycles ex post and also performed well in a simulated real-time exercise. Moreover, in particular the headline ALICE also appeared to be useful for quantitative forecasting of the direction and level of inflation.     

Wechselwirkungen von Finanzkrise und Rechnungslegung

Praxis / MagazinTermine

Termine     

The perceived probability of job loss and future labour market outcomes

Longitudinal survey data are used to test the degree to which worker expectations of future job loss are correlated with changes in labour market status. Three major findings are reported. First, perceived probabilities of expected job loss are only weakly related to both exogenous job separations and subsequent transitions to unemployment and inactivity. Second, while fears of job loss tend to persist across time and job spells, they do so at a highly diminishing rate. Third, quit intentions are strongly correlated with both voluntary separations and transitions to alternative employment, and do not diminish greatly across successive employment spells.     

The effect of the car-parazzi system on traffic accidents in Korea

In 2001 and 2002, the Korean government rewarded around $3 to civilians who photograph and report violations of traffic rules. This so-called ‘car-parazzi system’ was such a success with well over 4 million cases reported until its abolition. Our empirical results found that the car-parazzi system was much effective in significantly reducing the death tolls by traffic accidents.     

Genetische Untersuchungen im Versicherungsbereich – Offene Fragen im Rahmen von § 18 GenDG

The paper refers to legal questions that arise in connection with the collection and use of genetic data in the context of private insurance. The content and meaning of § 18 GenDG is described. Then, § 18 GenDG is set in relation to notification requirements out of the VVG. The paper exemplarily emphasizes that, despite the codification of GenDG, specific legal problems arise. Accordingly, the paper provides solutions to overcome these problems. Particular problems refer to the role of genetic data of third parties and according relations to the family history, possibilities to communicate genetic data by the insured in case of medical indication, the ratio of predictive and diagnostic genetic testing and the range of the total limits of § 18 I 2 GenDG.