Preventing rather than punishing: An early warning model of malfeasance in public procurement

Is it possible to predict malfeasance in public procurement? With the proliferation of e-procurement systems in the public sector, anti-corruption agencies and watchdog organizations have access to valuable sources of information with which to identify transactions that are likely to become troublesome and why. In this article, we discuss the promises and challenges of using machine learning models to predict inefficiency and corruption in public procurement. We illustrate this approach with a dataset with more than two million public procurement contracts in Colombia. We trained machine learning models to predict which of them will result in corruption investigations, a breach of contract, or implementation inefficiencies. We then discuss how our models can help practitioners better understand the drivers of corruption and inefficiency in public procurement. Our approach will be useful to governments interested in exploiting large administrative datasets to improve the provision of public goods, and it highlights some of the tradeoffs and challenges that they might face throughout this process.     

A note on the implied volatility of floating strike Asian options

Decisions in Economics and Finance - In this paper, we study the short-time behavior of the implied volatility for short-time floating strike Asian options. Our method is based on Malliavin...     

SOCIAL CAPITAL,GOVERNANCE AND PERFORMANCE OF ETHIOPIAN COFFEE COOPERATIVES

ABSTRACT: The performance of agrarian cooperatives strongly depends on the interaction between internal cohesion and external exchange. Empirical assessments of social capital and trust within cooperatives suggest that market involvement could enhance collective action. This relationship may not hold, however, under circumstances of heterogeneous membership and strong state control. We use field data from a comparative sample of 500 coffee farmers belonging to five cooperatives of Sidama Cooperative Union, Ethiopia to outline how differences in economic performance are related to the structure of social networks. We identify clear trade‐offs between bonding and bridging social capital that favour remotely located cooperatives.     

Social security and economic performance in Portugal: after all that has been said and done how much has actually changed?

This paper provides an empirical estimate of the macroeconomic effects of the Portuguese pay-as-you-go social security system based on data for the period 1970?C2007 and on VAR estimates using GDP, the unit cost of labor, the unemployment rate, the savings rate and social security spending. The major findings are twofold. First, growing social security spending has had detrimental effects on all of the private sector variables under consideration suggesting the existence of sizable inefficiencies. Second, these inefficiencies persist despite the successive reforms that took place over the last two decades. These results highlight the need for structural reforms of the pay-as-you-go system thereby addressing the sources of these inefficiencies, regardless of whether or not the system is financially sustainable. Furthermore, any reforms designed to address sustainability concerns cannot ignore these inefficiencies or risk making them even worse and thereby hindering the quest for sustainability itself.     

Translating European regulatory approval into healthcare uptake for biosimilars: the second translational gap

ABSTRACT

With 15 biosimilar molecules in 9 different molecular classes and currently marketed under 23 distinct brands, the European pathway for regulatory approval of biosimilars has been demonstrably tried and tested. The gap that now remains is the translation from regulatory assessment and approval to incorporation of biosimilars within our healthcare systems in Europe. Despite many efforts by regulators to reach out to clinicians, there remains a translational gap for biosimilars which need to be incorporated in healthcare pathways and understood by clinicians and patients. Only by bridging this gap will biosimilars fully play their role in healthcare for Europe.     

Likelihood Inference for Gibbs Processes in the Analysis of Spatial Point Patterns*

Several authors have proposed stochastic and non‐stochastic approximations to the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) for Gibbs point processes in modelling spatial point patterns with pairwise interactions. The approximations are necessary because of the difficulty of evaluating the normalizing constant. In this paper, we first provide a review of methods which yield crude approximations to the MLE. We also review methods based on Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for which exact MLE has become feasible. We then present a comparative simulation study of the performance of such methods of estimation based on two simulation techniques, the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis‐Hastings algorithm, carried out for the Strauss model.     

Pension Funds and Emerging Markets

This paper focuses on the investment behavior of pension funds in developed and emerging market countries. First, it analyzes the main determinants of the emerging market asset allocation of pension funds in developed countries. Second, it assesses how pension funds in emerging markets have contributed to the development of local securities markets. Third, it analyzes the determinants of pension funds' investment performance. The paper concludes with a discussion of why the emerging market asset allocation of pension funds in developed countries is likely to increase and what the challenges faced by pension funds in emerging markets are.     

The Newsboy Model: Changes in Risk and Price

In this paper I extend the literature related with the newsboy model by analyzing the effect on orders of changes in risk and price. I show that risk aversion is necessary and sufficient condition for the newsboy to decrease orders when the demand suffers an FSD deterioration in risk, and analyze changes in price including an effect, which has been ignored in the literature.JEL Classification No.: D8     

The impact of the persian gulf crisis on the prices of LDCs' loans

The article employs the event-study methodology to examine the impact of the Persian Gulf Crisis on the prices of LDCs' loans. The main empirical findings are that the Gulf Crisis (1) had a significant impact on the loan prices of LDCs; (2) decreased the loan prices of LDCs with low oil reserves but increased the loan prices of LDCs with high oil reserves; (3) imposed a harsh constraint on the ability and willingness of the severely indebted LDCs to meet their debt obligations; (4) had a strong negative impact on the loan prices of low-income LDCs; and (5) produced large economic losses in LDCs with large remittances from the Middle East. The markets for LDC debt are efficient and responded to the crisis according to expectations. It is interesting to point out that most of the changes in the loan prices occurred during the time period that began with the invasion of Kuwait and ended with the allied forces' air attack.