Does IMF Support Accelerate Inflation Stabilization?

This paper analyzes the effects of International Monetary Fund (IMF) arrangements on the timing of inflation stabilization programs. By providing financial support that may allow the reduction of inflation without incurring politically unacceptable economic costs, the IMF can hasten stabilization. But, since support can also reduce the costs of inflation, it may instead delay it. Empirical results obtained for 10 countries that suffered from chronic inflation fail to support the hypothesis that IMF financial assistance accelerates stabilization. Rather, they indicate that other factors have a greater impact on the timing of stabilizations: greater fragmentation of the political system delays stabilization, while a higher level of inflation hastens it. JEL Classification Numbers: E63, E31, F35     

The multinational corporation vis-à-vis societies in transformation: The case for intermediate technology in the developing countries

There are preciously few problems, no matter how intricate, which—when perceived form more different angles and over more time—do not grow in complexity. Perhaps the most complicated problem that crossed this author's path is the development of Asia, Latin America and Africa.Development to what? As a Dutch economist who sees himself preferably as a socioeconomist, I perceive development as a level of human dignity that requires, a priori, employment. For to be unemployed is to be outside society and to lose face, self-respect and income.As a regional planner for a large multinational corporation—CPC International, Inc.—I have studied in some depth what comes first: education or employment; resources or employment; consumption or production; food or productivity; agriculture or industry; growth or distribution. Having been exposed to these problems in various continents, I have reached the conclusion that employment is, on balance, the number one priority.That priority calls for a highly labor-intensive technology, which in this article is termed “intermediate technology”. It constitutes one phase of development that can create rock-bottom employment, a meager but sure and growing income, and human dignity for one billion marginated people in three continents. That objective requires ingenuous technological forecasting for vital social change.     

Induced and Linguistic Generalized Aggregation Operators and Their Application in Linguistic Group Decision Making

We introduce a wide range of induced and linguistic generalized aggregation operators. First, we present the induced linguistic generalized ordered weighted averaging (ILGOWA) operator. It is a generalization of the OWA operator that uses linguistic variables, order inducing variables and generalized means in order to provide a more general formulation. One of its main results is that it includes a wide range of linguistic aggregation operators such as the induced linguistic OWA (ILOWA), the induced linguistic OWG (ILOWG) and the linguistic generalized OWA (LGOWA) operator. We further generalize the ILGOWA operator by using quasi-arithmetic means obtaining the induced linguistic quasi-arithmetic OWA (Quasi-ILOWA) operator and by using hybrid averages forming the induced linguistic generalized hybrid average (ILGHA) operator. We also present a further extension with Choquet integrals. We call it the induced linguistic generalized Choquet integral aggregation (ILGCIA). We end the paper with an application of the new approach in a linguistic group decision making problem.     

Agricultural commodities pricing model applied to the Brazilian sugar market

This article suggests a pricing model for commodities used to produce biofuel. The model is based on the concept that the deterministic component of the Wiener process is not constant and depends on time and exogenous variables. The model, which incorporates theory of storage, the convenience yield and the seasonality of harvests, was applied in the Brazilian sugar market. After predictions were made with the Kalman filter, the model produced results that were statistically more accurate than those returned by the two‐factor model available in the literature.     

Aid and Poverty in Africa: Do Well‐being Measures Understate the Progress?

Abstract: In the last 15 years international aid donors to Africa have shifted their focus dramatically toward health and education; the share of social sector support in total aid rose from 33 per cent to 60 per cent from 1990–94 to 2000–2004 alone. If this aid has been effective, it is unlikely to be captured in GDP or income poverty figures. This paper uses the Demographic and Health Survey at multiple points in time to explore changes in well‐being in ten sub‐Saharan African countries. It compares the evolution of both assets and health which are considered as the two main dimensions of well‐being. These dimensions are simultaneously estimated using the structural equation models with latent variables that have been developed in the psychometric literature. The comparisons of well‐being across time in each country are based on the stochastic dominance analysis. The main results suggest that assets and health have improved during the last two decades in most of these countries. A decline in assets is observed for three countries while health deteriorates in two countries. The reduced poverty appears to be explained less by the aid than other factors in most cases.     

Growth machines and social movements in mature tourist destinations Costa del Sol-Málaga

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyse the new processes of tourism growth and its conflicts from the perspective of social movements. First, the urban growth machine analysis model is applied by the systematisation of six projects. Second, the resistance movements against those projects and whether this resistance could be the start of local tourism degrowth policies are examined. The methodology is qualitative, based on documentary analysis, participatory observation, discussion groups and interviews. The case study is the destination of Costa del Sol-Málaga. The results enable the development of the urban growth machine model in tourist destinations. Meanwhile, social movements demystify the argument based on neoclassical economic progress. The social movements condemn the effects of large-scale top-down projects, and implement alternative bottom-up proposals. Although the social movements do not reject tourism, they call for greater control over its impact, denounce unlimited growth, overtourism and the loss of urban quality of life. These movements advocate a lifestyle linked to the everyday space, which they believe is threatened by excessive urban-tourism growth. They are a symptom of the need to devise a proposal using the principles of degrowth.     

The end of growth in residential tourism destinations: steady state or sustainable development? The case of Calpe

This article discusses how the slowdown in the real estate market during the most recent economic and financial crisis has affected residential tourism destinations on the Spanish coast. The afore-mentioned crisis, which gave rise to a standstill in residential activity, coincided with the turbulences experienced in the competing destinations of Northern Africa, which brought about a record number of international tourist arrivals to Spain. The resulting situation enables us to explore the future scenario of all the Spanish destinations that, due to the depletion of available land, are reaching their maximum levels of urban growth. Examining the case of Calpe, a destination which is representative of the Spanish Mediterranean, the study analyses whether the foreseeable dynamics for the future are conceptualized in the favourable terms that characterize “sustainable development” or, on the contrary, exhibit negative implications which the classic economists refer to as the “steady state”.     

The Surge in Short-Duration Contracts in Spain

Until the outbreak of the recent economic and financial crisis, Spain was leading the ranking of countries with the largest share of temporary employees. During the crisis this share has fallen to its lowest level in decades, but this does not mean that working conditions in Spain have improved. The flow of new temporary contracts is larger than ever before. A particularly striking feature is the steep growth in the volume of fixed-duration contracts lasting less than a week or a month. We document these trends and analyse how this phenomenon has affected the transition from temporary to permanent employment.