An empirical note about additive outliers and nonstationarity in Latin-American inflation series

This note shows the empirical dangers of the presence of large additive outliers when testing for unit roots using standard unit root statistics. Using recent proposed procedures applied to four Latin-American inflation series, I show that the unit root hypothesis cannot be rejected.Jel classification: C2, C3, C5I want to thank Pierre Perron for useful comments on a preliminary version of this paper. Helpful comments from an anonymous referee, and Yiagadeesen Samy are appreciated. I thank the Editor Baldev Raj for useful comments about the final structure of this paper. Finally, I also thank André Lucas for helpful suggestions concerning the use of his nice computer program Robust Inference Plus Estimation (RIPE).First revision received: August 2001/Final revision received: December 2002     

The strategic sincerity of Approval voting

We show that Approval voting need not trigger sincere behavior in equilibrium of Poisson voting games and hence might lead a strategic voter to skip a candidate preferred to his worst preferred approved candidate. We identify two main rationales for these violations of sincerity. First, if a candidate has no votes, a voter might skip him. Notwithstanding, we provide sufficient conditions on the voters’ preference intensities to remove this sort of insincerity. On the contrary, if the candidate gets a positive share of the votes, a voter might skip him solely on the basis of his ordinal preferences. This second type of insincerity is a consequence of the correlation of the candidates’ scores. The incentives for sincerity of rank scoring rules are also discussed.     

The impact of socio-economic background on satisfaction: evidence for policy-makers

Consumer satisfaction with utility services has received increased attention from firms, consumer associations, regulators and governments since the 1990s. Evidence is mounting that consumers in specific socio-economic groups express lower satisfaction levels than their peers, at least, in some utility markets. Seeing this as part of their remit to protect consumer welfare, governments and international organizations are exploring possible demand-side policy responses with the intention of ameliorating lower satisfaction levels of these groups of consumers. However, more information on the precise relationships between satisfaction and consumers’ socio-economic background is required if policy is to be proportional and effective. This paper provides new empirical knowledge on this topic by contrasting consumers’ stated and revealed preferences for five utility services (electricity, gas, fixed and cellular telephony and Internet) across twelve European countries. We find strong evidence that consumers’ socio-economic characteristics matter: consumers with lower levels of education, the elderly and those not employed exhibit particular expenditure patterns on, and lower satisfaction levels with, some utility services. However, this relationship is uneven and depends on the socio-economic category and service in question. We conclude by highlighting five findings which may be of use to policy-makers when considering whether demand-side regulatory policies are required     

Volatility transmission between stock and foreign exchange markets: a connectedness analysis

ABSTRACT

This paper empirically investigates volatility transmission among stock and foreign exchange markets in seven major world economies during the period July 1988 to May 2018. To this end, we first perform a static and dynamic analysis to measure the total volatility connectedness in the entire period (the system-wide approach). Second, we make use of a dynamic analysis to evaluate the net directional connectedness for each market. To gain further insights, we examine the time-varying behaviour of net pair-wise directional connectedness during the financial turmoil periods experienced in the sample period Our results suggest that slightly more than half of the total variance of the forecast errors is explained by shocks across markets rather than by idiosyncratic shocks. Furthermore, we find that volatility connectedness varies over time, with a surge during periods of increasing economic and financial instability.     

The use of the scaling property in a frontier analysis of a system of equations

ABSTRACT

This article presents a one-stage efficiency frontier analysis based on the scaling property. This type of analysis is a not very often applied in empirical work in spite of its nice features. Due to the scaling property the influence of exogenous (managerial) variables on efficiency can be modelled and estimated in one stage. It also opens the possibility of estimating a system of equations, consisting of a cost function and the corresponding cost share equations. The model is applied to a unique data set of Dutch secondary education school boards in the period 2007–10, not only consisting of regular data on cost, inputs and outputs, but also of specific data on operational management. The model provides reliable and plausible estimates for the cost efficiency, scale elasticity, and technical change. Average cost efficiency is about 96%. Economies of scale prevail for school boards with size less than 0.8 times average size, whereas annual productivity growth is 2.2% on average.     

Human capital,innovation and productivity in Colombian enterprises: a structural approach using instrumental variables

ABSTRACT

In this paper we explore the R&D–innovation–productivity linkage for the Colombian manufacturing industry, paying special attention to the role of human capital. Using data from two firm-level surveys, the Survey of Development and Technological Innovation (EDIT) and the Annual Manufacturing Survey (EAM), we extend the model of Crépon, Duguet, and Mairesse [1998. ‘Research, Innovation and Productivity: An Econometric Analysis at the Firm Level.’ Economics of Innovation and New Technology 7 (2): 115–158] (hereafter CDM) by including human capital at the investment decision stage. We implement an instrumental variable methodology to correct the potential endogeneity that may arise with the inclusion of human capital. Our results suggest that human capital has a causal effect on research and development (R&D) investment decisions, the innovation behavior of the firm, and increases the labor productivity of the firm. The conclusions highlight the relevance of human capital in the surrounding literature which stands in contrast to prior work that has not included this variable.     

The stability and breakup of nations: a quantitative analysis

This paper quantitatively analyzes the stability and breakup of nations. The tradeoff between increasing returns in the provision of public goods and the costs of greater cultural heterogeneity mediates agents’ preferences over different geographical configurations, thus determining the likelihood of secessions and unions. After calibrating the model to Europe, we identify the regions prone to secession and the countries most likely to merge. We then estimate the implied monetary gains from EU membership. As a test of the theory, we show that the model can account for the breakup of Yugoslavia and the dynamics of its disintegration. We find that economic differences between the Yugoslav republics determined the order of disintegration, but cultural differences, though small, were key to the country’s instability. The paper also provides empirical support for the use of genetic distances as a proxy for cultural heterogeneity.     

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EUROPEAN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS BASED ON RECTANGULAR SUPPLY-USE TABLES

This paper formalises the so-called Supply-Use Based Econometric (SUBE) approach that allows for the introduction of econometric analysis in the calculation of backward input–output multipliers of the Leontief-type quantity model, using rectangular supply and use tables. The SUBE approach does not require any kind of inverse matrix and incorporates the traditional approach (with square supply-use tables) as a particular case. The empirical analysis shows that the SUBE carbon dioxide multipliers for the EU27 are considerably lower than those obtained by the traditional Leontief inverse. In an application of the SUBE approach, the European economy appears to emit about 10% less carbon dioxide than in a situation in which it would not import any intermediate inputs from outside the EU27.