Exchange Rate Determination: An Application of a Monetary Model for Brazil

The goal of this paper is to test a variant of the monetary exchange rate determination model, described by Obstfeld and Rogoff (1996), for the Brazilian economy in the recent period. The model starts with the Cagan (The Journal of Political Economy, 66(4):303–328, 1958) money demand, which is complemented by the hypotheses of purchase power parity (PPP) and uncovered interest parity (UIP). We used monthly data of exchange rate, GDP, interest rate for Brazil, and U.S. interest rate and inflation as proxies for international variables. We applied cointegration tests to identify a long run relationship among the variables. The estimated error correction model offers an exchange rate determination model in the short run. Due to potential endogeneity of some variables, GMM was applied to estimate a long-run model of exchange rate determination. The forecasting results of both estimatives were compared with a random walk approach. The results point to the existence of a long and short run equilibrium Real/dollar exchange rate using the structural model, which may be the achievement of this paper.     

Spillover across Eurozone credit market sectors and determinants

We examine spillover and its determinants among Eurozone sector level credit markets using time and frequency domain spillover approaches. Based on network theory and connectedness analysis, we identify the sectors that are major transmitters and receivers of spillover during normal and crisis periods. The rolling window analysis shows that short-run spillover among credit market sectors intensifies during global and Eurozone crisis periods. Further, using Bayesian model averaging, we find that overall financial conditions and stock market volatility are the main drivers of total and sector-level spillover. Our findings have important implications for policymakers and investors interested in Euro-area credit risk at the sector level.     

Corporate returns and cash conversion cycles

This study examines the relationship between profitability measures and management of ongoing liquidity needs for a large cross-section of firms over a twenty-year period. Long-run equilibrium relationships between the cash conversion cycle, a measure of ongoing liquidity management, and alternative measures of profitability are tested using both nonparametric and multiple regression analysis. Industry and size differences are controlled. While there are exceptions to the general finding for specific firms and for specific industries, the paper offers strong evidence that aggressive working-capital policies enhance profitability.     

‘They tell us after they've decided things’: A cross-country analysis of unions and digitalisation in retail

The role of trade unions in the social shaping of digital technologies is a vital question for research, public policy and social justice. This article draws on interviews with two unions in the grocery retail sector in the United Kingdom and Norway, and examines their involvement in technology decisions, and whether they can shape better outcomes for workers. By comparing a ‘neo-liberal’ economy and a ‘Nordic welfare state’, the article considers whether stronger institutional power and regulatory supports in Norway provide for greater influence in a sector regarded as challenging for unions. The findings indicate relatively few country differences and help shed light on the factors that enable and constrain unions’ role in digitalisation.     

Analysing the impact of restructuring transportation,production and distribution on costs and environment – a case from the Thai Rubber industry

Transportation and distribution are key elements to successful supply chains, however there is some disagreement regarding the impact of distribution and transportation restructuring on costs and the environment. This paper explores the use of an optimisation model of Thailand’s rubber industry supply chain, to assess the impact of distribution and transportation on costs and greenhouse gas emissions. It has previously been observed that there is a positive correlation between transportation cost reduction and environmental impact, nevertheless the correlation is not clearly established when the distribution system is restructured. This paper is divided into two parts: the first part examines the impact of transportation service capacity on distribution decisions; the second part of the paper aims to examine the impact of restructuring the distribution network considering multi-modal options on cost and greenhouse gas emissions. For both parts a scenario analysis is utilised in conjunction with an optimisation model to derive the best possible answer in terms of costs and GHG emissions. In this paper, the results obtained indicate that the impact on cost minimisation from the increase in rail freight service capacity is marginal, while the impact on GHG emission minimisation is more significant. In terms of short-sea shipping prices and service capacity, the scenario analysis shows a slight positive impact on cost minimisation but no positive or negative impact on GHG emission minimisation. Results also confirm that in terms of economic advantages, distribution network restructuring provides greater benefit to the industry than does capacity development for the transportation service.     

Stable and efficient coalitional networks

We develop a theoretical framework that allows us to study which bilateral links and coalition structures are going to emerge at equilibrium. We define the notion of coalitional network to represent a network and a coalition structure, where the network specifies the nature of the relationship each individual has with her coalition members and with individuals outside her coalition. To predict the coalitional networks that are going to emerge at equilibrium we propose the concepts of strong stability and of contractual stability. Contractual stability imposes that any change made to the coalitional network needs the consent of both the deviating players and their original coalition partners. Requiring the consent of coalition members under the simple majority or unanimity decision rule may help to reconcile stability and efficiency. Moreover, this new framework can provide insights that one cannot obtain if coalition formation and network formation are tackled separately and independently.