Kundenpräferenzen für leistungsrelevante Attribute von Stromprodukten

This article addresses whether standard electricity products in Switzerland meet the preferences of private customers. To determine customers’ preferred electricity product we conducted an online survey with choice experiments implying 9420 choice decisions by 628 respondents in Switzerland. Using hierarchical Bayes estimation we determined customer preferences and the importance of individual product attributes in product choice. This procedure makes it possible to calculate part worth utilities for product attributes and to derive customers’ implicit willingness to pay. The “electricity mix” had the most important influence on choice decisions, followed by “monthly electricity costs” and the “location of the electricity generation”. The current Swiss electricity mix which consists of mainly nuclear and hydro power was only rated second to last in a comparison of five alternative mixes. Customers clearly prefer electricity mixes containing green energy. Findings of this study reveal strategic options for product design, positioning, and marketing for a liberalized electricity market.     

A note on increased probability of loss and the demand for insurance

It is shown that the effect of increased probability of loss on the demand for insurance depends on whether both insured and insurer are aware of the change. When both insurer and insured share the same beliefs about the probability of loss (symmetric information), an increase in the loss probability may lead risk-averse agents to demandless insurance.     

The information content of financial analysts' forecasts of earnings: Some evidence on semi-strong inefficiency

The paper assesses the information content of revisions in financial analysts' forecasts of earnings by analyzing the relation between the direction of these revisions and stock price behavior. Abnormal returns during the months surrounding the revisions in analysts' forecasts are computed and evaluated. The results strongly indicate that information on revisions in forecasts of earnings per share is valuable to investors. It is also suggested that market reaction to the disclosure of analysts' forecasts is relatively slow and gives rise to potential abnormal returns to investors who act upon this type of publicly available information.     

On Mutual Fund Investment Styles

Most mutual funds adopt investment styles that cluster arounda broad market benchmark. Few funds take extreme positions awayfrom the index, but those who do are more likely to favor growthstocks and past winners. The bias toward glamour and the tendencyof poorly performing value funds to shift styles may reflectagency and behavioral considerations. After adjusting for style,there is evidence that growth managers on average outperformvalue managers. Though a fund's factor loadings and its portfoliocharacteristics generally yield similar conclusions about itsstyle, an approach using portfolio characteristics predictsfund returns better.     

Employment and growth in an aging society: a simulation study for Austria

In this study we use a long run macroeconomic model for Austria to simulate the effects of aging on employment, output growth, and the solvency of the social security system. By disaggregating the population into six age cohorts and modelling sex specific participation rates for each cohort we are able to account for the future demographic trends. Apart from a baseline scenario, we perform three alternative simulations that highlight the effects of aging from different perspectives. These include (1) purely demographic developments, (2) increasing labour market imperfections, and (3) higher economic growth due to a productivity shock.     

Earnings,social security legislation and retirement decisions: the Austrian experience

This paper analyses the labour supply behaviour of elderly males in Austria and asks how far it is determined by the characteristics of the Austrian Social Security System. This is of particular interest because old age insurance in Austria is dominated by the public pension plan, so that private pension plans are of minor importance. I argue that from a theoretical point of view the actuarial unfairness of the insurance plan creates a strong incentive to withdraw from the labour force at the minimum retirement age. Secondly, the rising earnings replacement ratio might be responsible for the decreasing average retirement age. These hypotheses are tested empirically. A pooled time-series cross-sections labour force participation model is estimated for single birth year cohorts of elderly males. I find strong evidence for the proposition, that the age-participation pattern might be determined by the incentives created by social security and that the decrease in labour force participation rates over time may be due to the rising earnings replacement ratio. Remaining differences in labour force participation of elderly males may be attributable to cohort population size and to a long run trend.