The impact of time duration between trades on the price of treasury note futures contracts

Recent research in finance has indicated that the institutional structure in which financial asset prices are determined can have a nontrivial impact on pricing. This report examines transaction level data for Treasury Note futures contracts traded at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) to identify institutional, or market microstructure, impacts on the pricing of these contracts. Relatively few articles have conducted empirical research on the microstructure of U.S. futures trading due to the limited availability of comprehensive transaction level data from the futures exchanges. This report uses the CBOT's Computerized Trade Reconstruction database, a comprehensive transaction level dataset, to identify the price impact of the time duration between trades in a manner analogous to that of A. Dufour and R. F. Engle (2000). Unique differences from prior research include the application to futures contracts with their relative higher frequency of trading, as well as the investigation of the price impact of the number of active traders present on the trading floor and the trading volume. Subsequent price and sign of trade significantly relate to the time duration between trades, the number of floor brokers, and the trading volume. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl. Fut Mark 24:965–980, 2004     

The contribution of a satellite market to price discovery: Evidence from the Singapore exchange

The Singapore Exchange (SGX), a small satellite market, successfully competes with a large home market, the Osaka Securities Exchange (OSE), in trading the Nikkei 225 futures index. In this paper, we investigate the contribution of the SGX to price discovery and shed light on the reasons for its continued success. Evidence is provided from information revelation and price discovery of three competing but informationally linked markets of the Nikkei 225 index—domestic spot (Tokyo Stock Exchange), domestic futures (OSE), and foreign futures (SGX), which represents the satellite market. Overall, the futures market contributes 77% to price discovery, with the satellite market contributing 42% of the futures and 33% of the total price discovery. These figures, surprisingly, far exceed the satellite market's share of trading volume. Support is provided for the extended trading hours on the SGX for three of the four non‐overlapping trading sub‐periods. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:981–1004, 2004     

Contract modifications and the basis behavior of live cattle futures

The purpose of this study was to assess the basis behavior of the Live Cattle Futures contract at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) before and after the 1995 contract changes. Additionally, an alternative method of basis calculation utilizing weighted mean futures prices versus settlement futures prices was compared to determine which method provides a better representation of the basis level. Within a regression model with heteroskedascity error framework, we found that the level of nearby basis in the period after June 1995 has shifted lower and the average monthly open interest of net commercial long positions has substantially increased after the contract modifications. These empirical results are consistent with the notion that more long activity entered the market in response to the contract modifications. Additionally, an alternative (new) measure of basis calculation (cash price minus weighted mean futures price) produced similar results to two other commonly used measures. In conclusion, the 1995 contract changes have neither increased nor decreased the volatility of live cattle basis. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:557–590, 2004     

Selected individual differences and collegians' ethical beliefs

This paper develops twenty hypotheses concerning the relationships among selected individual differences variables (locus of control, delay of gratification, gender, and race) and five different ethical beliefs. The results of a study of collegians provide support for seventeen out of twenty research hypotheses. As predicted, locus of control, delay of gratification, and race are related to ethical beliefs. Also as predicted, gender is not related to ethical beliefs. Michael K. McCuddy, Professor of Human Resource Management at Valparaiso University, has conducted research on a variety of organizational topics. His work has been published in the Academy of Management Journal, Journal of Applied Psychology, Journal of Organizational Behavior Management, The Health Care Supervisor, and Management Accounting. His current interests involve academic ethics and subsequent career behavior, organizational morality and organizational success, and ethics in the management accounting profession. Barbara L. Peery, Adjunct Professor of Management at Virginia Commonwealth University, teaches courses in Entrepreneurship and Human Resources Management. Her scholarly work has been published in the Journal of Small Business Management and the Journal of Private Enterprise. Her current research interests focus on the antecedents and consequences of academic ethics. She has co-directed or coordinated several consulting projects for agencies in the Commonwealth of Virginia, and has taught in Russia.     

Information from successive changes in gold and silver prices during phases of the business cycles

This paper concerns the behavior of gold and silver prices on a daily, weekly and monthly time span during January 1970 to December 1989. The methodology consists of extracting the predictive power of time series of changes in past prices for obtaining optimal forecasts for next-period changes in prices. Optimizations are made in the context of information theory via minimizing the degree of diversity between the actual and predicted changes in prices. This methodology has merit in that it does not rest on, generally speaking, unacceptable assumptions regarding the shape of the distribution, stationarity of variance or its existence. The behavior of gold and silver prices are studied during peak to trough and trough to peak of the business cycles over 1970–1989. It is generally shown that information contained in past prices of gold and silver does not allow one to predict next-period changes in prices in the short run. However, longer-term predictions are possible. This study further reveals that as the length of the time interval expands, gold prices exhibit a higher degree of dependency on past prices than silver.     

On Testing for the Nullity of Some Skewness Coefficients

Three tests for the skewness of an unknown distribution are derived for iid data. They are based on suitable normalization of estimators of some usual skewness coefficients. Their asymptotic null distributions are derived. The tests are next shown to be consistent and their power under some sequences of local alternatives is investigated. Their finite sample properties are also studied through a simulation experiment, and compared to those of the √ b ₂-test.