Composite likelihood methods for large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility

Adding multivariate stochastic volatility of a flexible form to large vector autoregressions (VARs) involving over 100 variables has proved challenging owing to computational considerations and overparametrization concerns. The existing literature works with either homoskedastic models or smaller models with restrictive forms for the stochastic volatility. In this paper, we develop composite likelihood methods for large VARs with multivariate stochastic volatility. These involve estimating large numbers of parsimonious models and then taking a weighted average across these models. We discuss various schemes for choosing the weights. In our empirical work involving VARs of up to 196 variables, we show that composite likelihood methods forecast much better than the most popular large VAR approach, which is computationally practical in very high dimensions: the homoskedastic VAR with Minnesota prior. We also compare our methods to various popular approaches that allow for stochastic volatility using medium and small VARs involving up to 20 variables. We find our methods to forecast appreciably better than these as well.     

Premature Deindustrialization and the Defeminization of Labor

There is growing evidence of two related global processes happening. The late industrializers are deindustrializing at earlier stages of development than their predecessors, and the global trends in the gender composition of manufacturing and industrial employment are evolving. What is less well known is how these two trends are related to one another. Starting from the premise that industrial upgrading has been observed to have a male bias, we test the hypothesis that premature deindustrialization is likely to amplify that bias. For the empirical test and simulation, we use an economy’s global competitive position as a proxy for the deindustrialization regime type. To get to this position, we bring together the work of Nicholas Kaldor, feminist scholarship, and structuralist critiques. The results for sixty-two countries, spanning the years from 1990 to 2013, support our hypothesis that premature deindustrialization is likely to amplify the male bias of industrial upgrading.     

TURNING PINK SLIPS INTO RED TAPE: THE UNINTENDED EFFECTS OF EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION LEGISLATION

This article presents evidence on the link between employment protection legislation (EPL) and the rate of unemployment in a cross‐country panel dataset of Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries from 1985 to 2013. We use both a traditional panel specification with lags of the policy variable, and also a unique structural panel vector autoregression (PVAR) method to determine the long‐run dynamic interaction between EPL and unemployment. We confirm that more restrictive EPL for permanently employed workers causes a significant and persistent increase in unemployment, but the effect is only apparent at long‐lag lengths, some 2–5 years after the law has been implemented. (JEL J68, J65, J63)     

Does the Median Voter or Special Interests Determine State Highway Expenditures? Recent Evidence

Using cross-sectional data from 50 states of the United States and the District of Columbia for two different time periods, this paper examines the degree to which special interests or the median voter determine state highway expenditures. In addition to finding that previous estimates of the determinants of state highway expenditures are robust, we find that that special interests that were important in 1984 were no longer significant nearly 20 years later. Like the previous literature, we conclude that the reduced form median voter model performs well in explaining state highway expenditures.     

Regulating Private Infrastructure Investment: Optimal Pricing for Access to Essential Facilities

This paper analyzes optimal pricing for access to essential facilities in a competitive environment. The focus is on investment incentive issues arising from regulation under complete information. To that end, examining the provision of a natural monopoly infrastructure with unlimited capacity, it is shown that the fixed component of a regulated access price can be structured so as to induce a race between market participants to provide the infrastructure. An appropriate pricing formula can ensure that a single firm chooses to invest at the socially optimal time (taking into account producer and consumer surplus) despite the immediate access granted to rivals and the non-existence of government subsidies. Under the optimal pricing formula, firms choose their investment timing based on their desire to pre-empt their rivals. This pricing formula is efficient (a two part tariff), implementable ex post, and robust to alternative methods of asset valuation (replacement or historical cost). When firms are not identical, the access pricing formula resembles, in equilibrium, a fully distributed cost methodology.     

Freedom and gross in-migration: an empirical study of the post-great recession experience

Determinants of migration, including policy variables such as tax rates, have been extensively studied by regional scientists over the past several decades. The development of the Economic Freedom of North America Index has allowed researchers to test the relationship between migration patterns and economic freedom, with recent studies finding that net in-migration is positively related to economic freedom. Using a new cross-section measure of economic and personal freedom at the state level, we investigate the relationship between gross in-migration and economic freedom on the one hand and then between gross in-migration and total freedom on the other hand. This empirical study of domestic U.S. migration during the post-Great Recession period finds clear evidence that migrants prefer to move to those states affording higher levels of economic freedom and higher levels of total freedom.     

Developing countries’ financial vulnerability to the eurozone crisis: an event study of equity and bond markets

The global crisis highlights the continued vulnerability of developing countries to shocks from advanced economies. Just a few years after the global crisis, the eurozone sovereign debt crisis has emerged as the single biggest threat to the global outlook. In this paper, we apply the event study methodology to gauge the scope for financial contagion from the EU to developing countries. More specifically, we estimate the responsiveness of equity and bond markets in developing countries to global crisis period and eurozone crisis news. Overall, we find that whereas global crisis period had a consistently negative effect on returns of equity and bond markets in developing countries, the effect of eurozone crisis news was more mixed and limited.     

ARV Treatment and Time Allocation to Household Tasks: Evidence from Kenya

Using longitudinal survey data collected over a period of two years, this paper examines the impact of antiretroviral (ARV) treatment on the time allocated to various household tasks by treated HIV-positive patients and their household members. We study outcomes such as time devoted to housework, firewood and water collection, as well as care-giving and care-seeking. As treatment improves the health and productivity of patients, we find that female patients in particular are able to increase the amount of time they devote to water and firewood collection. This increased productivity of patients coupled with large decreases in the amount of time they spend seeking medical care leads to a reduced burden on children and other household members. We find evidence that boys and girls in treated patients' households devote less time to housework and other chores. These results suggest that the provision of ARV treatment generates a wide variety of benefits to households in resource-poor settings.     

Born on the first of July: An (un)natural experiment in birth timing

It is well understood that government policies can distort behavior. But what is less often recognized is that the anticipated introduction of a policy can introduce its own distortions. We study one such “introduction effect,” using evidence from a unique policy change in Australia. In 2004, the Australian government announced that children born on or after July 1, 2004 would receive a $3000 “Baby Bonus.” Although the policy was only announced seven weeks before its introduction, parents appear to have behaved strategically in order to receive the benefit, with the number of births dipping sharply before the policy commenced. On July 1, 2004, more Australian children were born than on any other single date in the past thirty years. We estimate that over 1000 births were “moved” so as to ensure that their parents were eligible for the Baby Bonus, with about one quarter being moved by more than one week. Most of the effect was due to changes in the timing of induction and cesarean section procedures. We find evidence to suggest that babies who were shifted into the eligibility period were more likely to be of high birth weight. Two years later, on July 1, 2006, the Baby Bonus was increased, and we find that this again caused births to be moved from June to July. These birth timing events represent an opportunity for health researchers to study the impact of planned birthdays and hospital management issues.