试论分销渠道在电子商务浪潮下的整合

电子商务的发展对传统分销渠道产生了深刻影响。文中讨论了传统分销渠道的演变及其结构,研究了电子商务对分销渠道的影响,探讨电子商务与传统渠道的整合。     

基于灰色关联的我国金融风险评价体系研究

文章结合我国经济运行的实际情况,构建了一个完整的金融风险评价体系,并对2008年危机前后我国金融风险状况进行实证检验。结果表明,危机前我国金融体系综合评价偏离最优参考数列严重,而2010年关联程度最大。依据检验结果提出了抑制通胀、积极协调人民币升值幅度等政策性建议。     

对国外三大音乐教学法的若干思考

通过分析国外三大音乐教学法的主要思想及特色,认为此三大音乐教学法对我国农村学校音乐教学具有一定的借鉴价值,并从五个方面论述了运用三大教学法改进农村学校音乐教学路径。     

Using Parametric Bootstrap to Introduce and Manage Uncertainty: Replicated Loaded Insurance Life Tables

Insurance companies develop loaded life tables to protect themselves against deviations, for example, in the number of expected deaths or in the (residual) expectation of life of their insured. In doing so, however, the single random vector of experience crude death rates from which loaded tables are constructed is treated as deterministic or, at best, as a single realization of an underlying stochastic process, omitting the fact that it is estimated and subject to error and uncertainty. This can result in serious consequences for the insurer. To solve this problem, we follow the example of other researchers and propose a method to replicate loaded life tables using parametric bootstrap. We focus on estimating period-loaded life tables from company portfolios, where the sizes of the exposed-to-risk populations are significantly smaller than those of general populations. If we have a set of B loaded life tables, the average behavior and some extreme values can be computed and subsequently used in managing premiums or reserves. This article offers life insurers a simple way of incorporating the experience uncertainty in actuarial tasks (for example, in pricing) by comparing the limits of the confidence intervals obtained between parametric bootstrap and classical approaches (such as limit theorems).     

Failing and Merging as Competing Alternatives during Times of Financial Distress: Evidence from the Colombian Financial Crisis

This paper studies the determinants of individual bank failures and M&A processes in Colombia during the financial crisis of the late 1990s. Using bank-specific data we estimate competing risk hazards models and find that while profitability and capitalization are the most important determinants of the probability of failing, a bank's size, efficiency and capitalization are the main determinants of the probability of participating in an integration process. All else constant, an increase in capitalization reduces the probability of disappearing, whether due to the occurrence of bankruptcy, a merge or an acquisition. However, a marginal increase in capitalization reduces the probability of bankruptcy significantly more than the probability of integration. This study is the first to present a competing risks hazard model to identify covariates that excerpt significant influence on the probability of failing or merging for banks of an emerging economy.     

基于知识协同的知识链最优协调模型研究

在引入知识协同系数的情形下,构建了知识链的核心企业激励代理组织彼此协作的委托代理模型。假设存在一个核心企业、两个代理组织,在考虑代理组织可以互相帮助对方的情况下,研究了代理组织最优知识投入的努力程度,以及核心企业应给予代理组织的最优激励因子。研究表明,核心企业应该给予代理组织总体产出部分较大的激励因子,给予个体产出部分较小的激励因子。     

Coalition-proof supply function equilibria under capacity constraints

Whereas in the absence of capacity constraints the Cournot outcome is the unique coalition-proof supply function equilibrium outcome, the presence of capacity constraints may enlarge the set of equilibrium outcomes. Interestingly, if capacities are sufficiently asymmetric the new equilibrium prices are below the Cournot price. These results have important implications for merger and privatization policies: specifically, capacity divestiture will not necessarily imply lower market prices.This article is based on the second chapter of my PhD dissertation. I benefited from the comments and suggestions of Diego Moreno and Bill Hogan. I thank three anonymous referees for helpful comments. Seminar audiences at Carlos III and Harvard are gratefully acknowledged. The author is currently a Repsol YPF fellow at the Harvard John F. Kennedy School of Government. I am grateful to the Repsol YPF-Harvard Fellowship Program for financial support.     

中国低碳农业技术创新体系架构与建设路径研究

发展低碳农业是低碳经济社会的一个必然选择。低碳农业的发展离不开技术创新,但技术创新历来就是一项高风险、高投入的活动,需构建科学体系予以支持和保障。研究结果表明：企业是低碳农业技术创新的核心主体,政府、高校、科研院所、金融机构、中介机构均需参与其中,并提供相应的政策供给、技术供给、资金供给,以及信息供给。普及低碳农业知识、宣传低碳农业观念、制定支撑低碳农业发展的公共政策、引导农业碳汇市场建设、出台一系列与低碳农业相关的标准,是确保中国低碳农业技术创新体系建设的可行路径。     

Partial cross-ownership and strategic environmental policy

This paper analyzes the effect of passive investment in rival firms on the setting of cooperative and non-cooperative environmental taxes. We consider two firms located in different countries, with each firm owning the same percentage of the stock of its rival. We show that bilateral partial cross-ownership affects the taxes set by the countries in the cooperative and non-cooperative cases. When the stake that one firm has in its rival is great enough and environmental spillovers are low enough, cooperative taxes are lower than non-cooperative taxes. For the remaining values of parameters the opposite result is obtained.     

基于质量安全的生猪产业链纵向契约关系分析

分别运用混合战略模型和重复博弈模型分析了生猪产业链中市场契约和生产契约的履行情况。分析结果表明:市场契约的履行与关系租金正相关,与抽检成本、遵守契约所付出的额外成本负相关;生产契约的履行与关系租金、专用性资产投资和贴现率正相关,与遵守契约所付出的额外成本负相关。提出建议:政府应扶持猪肉产品品牌建设,促使优质猪肉产品在市场上实现优质优价;政府应增加对屠宰加工企业的抽检补贴;屠宰加工企业在进行专用性资产投资的同时也应要求养殖场户进行专用性资产投资。