Spotting patterns on the fly

Recognizing and anticipating change in industry patterns is a core competence for companies today, allowing managers to capitalize on opportunities before they are apparent to others. Yet despite the growing realization that recognizing patterns is important, companies are far from mastering how to do it, especially at the strategic level, where information is usually less profuse and much less precise. Pattern recognition is not a new skill, though, at least not to people outside the business world. Since antiquity, naturalists have relied on their ability to spot patterns to make sense of their surroundings. And surprisingly, there is much businesspeople can learn from bird-watching--as removed as it may seem from the fast-paced, bruising world of business--in terms of the cognitive demands pattern recognition requires. To learn more, HBR spoke with David Sibley, perhaps the nation's foremost birdwatcher and illustrator, and Julia Yoshida, a birder since 1965 and a physician at the Lahey Clinic in Burlington, Massachusetts. Sibley explains how expert birders draw on a wealth of tacit knowledge built up over the years to make identifications in a matter of seconds: "Once you've mastered common patterns, the real trick is to educate yourself about where discrepancies are most likely to appear--and to concentrate your attention on those areas." Although so fast as to be almost unconscious, the process he describes seems to be as methodical as one of Yoshida's medical diagnoses. "Recognizing a pattern involves knowing what to look for, what the possibilities are, and then sorting out those patterns when you are actually confronted with the patient," Yoshida says. "I don't think it's a eureka moment at all. It's a methodical process."     

Measurement Errors and Information Content of Segment Reporting

This paper assesses the measurement errors inherent in segment reporting. Measurement errors are gauged by comparing the correlation of segment results with their industry to the corresponding correlation for single line-of-business firms operating in the same industry. The findings show that the measurement errors in segment information, particularly earnings, are larger than those in the financial information reported by single line-of-business firms. The cross-sectional variation in the measurement errors can be traced to cost/revenue allocations, management intervention in segment reporting, and the operational structure of multi-segment firms. Market tests indicate that the information content of segment information is inversely related to the estimated measurement errors. This revised version was published online in November 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Organisational change, outsourcing and the impact on management accounting

New empirical evidence is presented on organisational change, outsourcing and the impact on management accounting in three types of organisations: private sector companies, the National Health Service and Local Authorities. Spearman rank correlations are used to examine three propositions: that (i) change in organisational form exists and may be related to an increased use of outsourcing or subcontracting; (ii) outsourcing is expected to improve organisational flexibility and/or the service of an activity, to lead to cost savings, or to allow the organisation to focus more clearly on its core business; and (iii) outsourcing promotes change in management accounting. Statistical support is found for each of our three propositions. This is further supported by reference to three illustrative case studies. Overall, we conclude that organisational change, as effected by the use of outsourcing, is related to specific changes in the organisations' management accounting systems.     

The Political Economy of Mobility Partnerships – Structural Power in the EU's External Migration Policy

The research on European Union (EU) external relations and the EU's own official discourse frequently portray the EU as a soft power that provides its neighbourhood with good governance principles. The European Mobility Partnerships (EU MPs) can be considered the most recent manifestation of this rhetoric. Studies on EU MPs reflect a narrow understanding of power. This paper aims to contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the power dimension inherent in the EU's external relations. It develops a neogramscian theoretical framework to challenge the rhetoric of the EU as a soft power and normative hegemon. Drawing on semi-structured expert interviews and textual analysis of documents, it seeks to reveal whether and in what ways socio-economic power dynamics shape the EU MPs. This article argues that while, at the beginning, the design of the EU MPs as a policy tool has been very much influenced by neoliberal ideas such as the market-oriented liberalisation of mobility and the flexibilisation of labour, implementation is marked by the neo-mercantilist approach of restricting immigration and maximising the efficiency of readmission. Applying a critical political economy concept of power is helpful in understanding how market forces influence EU external migration policy, transcending a narrow understanding of power.     

Dimensions of quality upgrading

The impact of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies’ trade integration with European markets on CEE trade structures has been studied extensively. These studies frequently observe a quality upgrading of CEE exports. In this paper we consider three dimensions of quality upgrading: upgrading across industries, upgrading across different quality segments within industries and, finally, product upgrading within quality segments inside industries. For the analysis we partition industries into quality segments based on EU‐15 import unit values. The results for ten CEE countries (comprising the CEE‐5, the Baltics and South East Europe) and thirteen industries suggest fundamental differences, both across country groups and across the three different notions of quality upgrading. The CEE‐5 show no evidence of entering a ‘low‐quality trap’ in all three dimensions. By contrast, while there is a general catching‐up process across industries and inside quality segments, the second notion of low‐quality specialization may be applicable within the high‐tech industries to the performance for the Baltics and South East Europe as a group.     

Enlarging the EMU to the east: what effects on trade?

The purpose of this article is to assess the implications of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) accession of eight Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) on their share of EMU-12 imports. Overcoming biases related to endogeneity, omitted variables and sample selection, our results indicate that the common currency has boosted intra-EMU imports by 7%. Under the assumption that the same relationship between the explanatory variables and imports will hold for EMU-CEEC trade, we intend to predict the future impact of the Euro. Our findings suggest that except for the least integrated countries, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania, all CEECs can expect increases in the EMU-12 import share.

Is Part-Time Employment after Childbirth a Stepping-Stone into Full-Time Work? A Cohort Study for East and West Germany

Does part-time work support first-time mothers’ employment by providing a stepping-stone into full-time work in Germany? Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel from 1984–2012, this study compares three different age cohorts of first-time East and West German mothers to investigate whether there has been any convergence between East and West Germany in the way women use part-time employment. Results show that mothers in West Germany in all cohorts tended to remain in part-time employment for longer periods than those in East Germany. Part-time employment more often provided a stepping-stone into full-time employment in East Germany than in West Germany. East German women who gave birth after reunification were less likely than older cohorts to experience a transition from part-time to full-time work. Thus, part-time employment not followed by subsequent full-time work has become more common in the East.     

Start-up Capital, Microenterprises and Technical Efficiency in Mexico

Access to adequate start‐up capital has been identified as an important deterrent to microenteprise development and growth. Using firm level data from Mexico's National Survey of Microenterprises, we estimate a stochastic frontier production function with inefficiency effects related to the main sources of start‐up capital. Microenterprises utilizing bank loans, carryover business capital, moneylenders and credit from clients and suppliers are more technically efficient than those relying on family, friends and on own financial sources. Bank loans led to the highest degree of technical efficiency, indicating a well‐functioning screening process despite information asymmetries. Banks tend to offer the largest average loan size with the longest terms which are significant factors in allowing microentrepreneurs to overcome financing constraints.     

Job Assignments under Moral Hazard: The Peter Principle Revisited

We show that inefficient job assignments arise in organizations even if there is full information about employees’ types and complete contracts are possible. Our model also provides a new perspective on the Peter Principle: the output of an employee who is promoted into a job for which he is not well suited need not decline postpromotion, because he is pushed to exert more effort. Although promotions are desirable for most employees, they make the least able in a hierarchy level worse off: for them earnings increase only because they work harder to compensate for their “incompetence.”     

Strategic pattern recognition—experimental evidence

The repeated play of an asymmetric Battle of the Sexes is analyzed from the perspective of “strategic pattern recognition.” Convergence to equilibrium patterns (in finite histories) and related concepts like breaking-an-equilibrium-pattern are defined and applied to the data. More than half of 202 pairs of subjects are characterized as weakly converging to a fixed equilibrium pattern. The results also show that subjects tend to break their best pattern in cases where their partners' payoffs are relatively low and that convergence initiation does not pay off. While female subjects frequently reject the males' best equilibrium with anonymous matching, behavior gets more cooperative when pairs are introduced to each other before the beginning of the game.