International Telecommunications,Settlement Rates,and the FCC

This paper models settlement arrangements between international telecommunication carriers. The FCC in the United States claims these arrangements cost United States consumers billions of dollars annually, largely to subsidize foreign carriers in low-income countries. A model is given which makes sense of this claim, as well as the role of costs, competition, and income disparities in settlement rate determination. Findings are tested using data spanning 17 years and 167 countries. Some implications are drawn for the FCC's recently proposed settlement rate caps, as well as for proposals for multilateral solutions.     

Little England's Missed Opportunity

Can Britain benefit from immigration from Hong Kong? William McGurn and Julian Simon, drawing on experience from America, argue that Britain has much to gain from migrants from Hong Kong.     

A Nonlinear Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

We present an economically motivated two–factor term structure model that generalizes existing stochastic mean term structure models. By allowing a certain parameter to acquire dynamical behavior we extend the two–factor model to obtain a nonlinear three–factor model that is shown, in a deterministic version, to be equivalent to the Lorenz system of differential equations. With reasonable parameter values the model exhibits chaotic behavior. It successfully emulates certain properties of interest rates including cyclical behavior on a business cycle time scale. Estimation and pricing issues are discussed. Standard PCA techniques used to estimate HJM type models are observed to be equivalent to dimensional estimates commonly applied to 'spatial data' in nonlinear systems analysis.
It is concluded that techniques commonly used in the analysis of nonlinear systems may be directly applicable to interest rate models, offering new insights in the development of these models. Tests of nonlinearity in interest rate behavior may need to focus on long cycle times.     

A better auction mechanism, and why governments should sell futures rather than debt

The mechanism by which governments sell debt at auction imposes unnecessary risks on primary dealers, who charge for these risks by bidding less. A better auction mechanism would increase the price at which governments sell their debt. Further, selling a specially designed futures contract would reduce dealers'balance sheet usage, again increasing revenue, and would also permit the authorities to match cash inflows with cash outflows.     

Post-War Productivity Patterns in U.S. Agriculture: Influences of Aggregation Procedures in a State-Level Analysis

Annual data for forty-eight states are used to account for changes in the composition of input and output aggregates over space and time, and thereby to obtain new evidence on changes in inputs, outputs, and productivity in U.S. agriculture. The measures change significantly when we use state-specific rather than national prices and when we allow for changes in the composition of the aggregates, especially of labor and capital inputs. We compare our estimates and those reported by Ball et al. ( American Journal of Agricultural Economics 81(1999):164–79). The national estimates are similar but substantial differences are found in state-level productivity growth.     

Quota Reforms in Australian Agriculture

This short paper reviews the Australian experience in reforming quotas on fluid milk, tobacco and laying hens. In these industries, quotas in at least some Australian states have been eliminated, but in every case the transition has entailed substantial compensation to at least some of the producers affected adversely by the change and the new policy has not always been afree market. Notably, the states having the greatest comparative advantage within Australia were the first to eliminate quotas on laying hens and fluid milk.
L'auteur passe brièvement en revue l'expérience australienne dans les processus de réforme des contingents sur le lait de consommation, sur le tabac et sur les poules de ponte. Dans ces secteurs, les contingents ont étééliminés dans au mains quelques États, mais au prix de compensations substantielles versées à un certain nombre de producteurs que les changements avaient mis en mauvaise posture et le nouveau régime n'a pas toujours fonctionné en marché libre. Il est remarquable de noter que les États australiens jouissant de plus grands avantages comparatifs par rapport aux autres ont été les premiers àéliminer le contingentement des poulaillers de ponte et du lait de consommation.     

Imperfect competition,functional forms,and the size and distribution of research benefits

The effects of functional forms for supply and demand on the size and distribution of the returns to research are examined under a range of forms of competition. Under perfect competition, the choice of functional form is relatively unimportant for the estimation of research benefits. Under imperfect competition, the combination of the choice of functional forms for supply and demand and the nature of the research-induced supply shift can have profound implications for the results. Functional form plays a much more important role than in the competitive model. The most important contrast is between the constant elasticity model and the linear model (along with various cases of a generalized linear model). These findings are illustrated using a combination of analytical results and numerical simulations.     

An Evaluation of California's Mandated Commodity Promotion Programs

This article provides an overview of mandated commodity programs in California, and summarizes and interprets existing evidence on their economic impacts. The analysis draws upon the recent book edited by the authors: The Economics of Commodity Promotion Programs: Lessons from California . New York: Peter Lang Publishing, April 2005. The book documents the institutional arrangements, summarizes the history of recent litigation, and presents the results of a number of benefit–cost studies of mandated commodity programs in California. The overwhelming conclusion from the studies reported in the article is that the programs have been very profitable for California's agricultural producers.     

The ties that bind: geopolitical motivations for economic integration

Review of World Economics - Economic determinants of economic integration agreements have received ample attention in the economic literature. Political motivations for such agreements have been...     

Research returns redux: a meta-analysis of the returns to agricultural R&D

A total of 289 studies of returns to agricultural R&D were compiled and these provide 1821 estimates of rates of return. After removing statistical outliers and incomplete observations, across the remaining 1128 observations the estimated annual rates of return averaged 65 per cent overall — 80 per cent for research only, 80 per cent for extension only, and 47 per cent for research and extension combined. These averages reveal little meaningful information from a large body of literature, which provides rate-of-return estimates that are often not directly comparable. This study was aimed at trying to account for the differences. Several features of the methods used by research evaluators matter, in particular assumptions about lag lengths and the nature of the research-induced supply shift.