Confidence intervals for maximal reliability in tau‐equivalent models

Subjective probabilities play an important role in marketing research, for example where individuals rate the likelihood that they will purchase a new developed product. The tau‐equivalent model can describe the joint behaviour of multiple test items measuring the same subjective probability. In this paper we stress the use of confidence intervals to assess reliability, as this allows for a more critical assessment of the items as measurement instruments. To improve the reliability one can use a weighted sum as the outcome of the test rather than an unweighted sum. In principle, the weights may be chosen so as to obtain maximal reliability. We propose two new confidence intervals for the maximal reliability in the tau‐equivalent model and we compare these two new intervals with intervals derived earlier in Yuan and Bentler (Psychometrika, 67 , 2002, 251) and Raykov and Penev (Multivariate Behavioral Research, 41 , 2006, 15). The comparison involves coverage curves, a methodology that is new in the field of reliability. The existing Yuan–Bentler and Raykov–Penev intervals are shown to overestimate the maximal reliability, whereas one of our proposed intervals, the stable interval, performs very well. This stable interval hardly shows any bias, and has a coverage for the true value which is approximately equal to the confidence level.     

KMT-type inequalities and goodness-of-fit tests

The implications of the probability inequality of Komløs, Major and Tusnády (1975) for the theory of goodness-of-fit tests, especially tests based on stochastic integrals with respect to the basic martingale in the random censoring model, are discussed. Choices of the integrand of the stochastic integral which yield highly efficient generalized rank and supremum type tests are given for the simple as well as the composite null hypothesis.     

Kapitaalverkeer met het Buitenland

Summary A model of portfolio behaviour is developed, based on the assumption that the distribution of a portfolio over different countries is determined by the general level of returns and costs of investments in those countries. From the model an isocapital exports line is derived. With the help of this line it is shown under which circumstances perverse capital movements will occur. The model implies that only temporary compensating operations on the domestic money and capital markets may be sufficient to make a domestic monetary policy effective.A partial adjustment version of the model is estimated for company pension funds.De heer M. J. Broekhuisen, evenals de auteur werkzaam op de sectie wetenschappelijk onderzoek en econometrie van de Studiedienst van de Nederlandsche Bank N.V., is mij op voortreffelijke wijze behulpzaam geweest bij de berekeningen voor dit onderzoek. De verantwoordelijkheid voor eventuele tekortkomingen is echter volledig de mijne. In een bijlage wordt de betekenis van de gebruikte symbolen samengevat.     

Labour hoarding in Dutch manufacturing industry

Summary Comfronting strong output fluctuations, companies are in no position to adjust their labour volume instantly to the technically efficient level. Because of that, they may find themselves with an internal labour reserve at one moment, and be short of labour at another. This phenomenon is called labour hoarding. In this article we propose a new method for the measurement of labour hoarding and apply it to the Dutch manufacturing industry. The results suggest that in the period 1972 to 1982, labour surpluses in that sector varied between five and fifteen percent of employment. Labour shortages appear to have been minor in the same period. Output uncertainty and real wage costs are supposed to be the main causes of the discrepancy between actual and technically efficient employment. Under this assumption an employment function is derived and fitted. The results are in accordance with the theoretical model on which the employment function was based.The author is attached to the Netherlands Economic Institute, Rotterdam.Based on the author's dissertation,Omvang en oorzaken van labour hoarding, Rotterdam, 1987.     

Amenity values and payment schemes for free recreation services from non-industrial private forest properties: A French case study

Free-access recreation on private forest property is gaining in importance with the increasing social demand for forest-based recreation. The amended French Forest Law of 2001 provides for schemes with a voluntary contract, in terms of which private forest owners are paid to maintain an open-access forest for nature-based recreational activities, which are largely public goods. The main objective of this paper is to analyze private forest landowners’ commitment to free-access recreation services on their properties. We develop a framework to estimate their willingness-to-accept (WTA) values as a measure of the financial compensation that they expect in exchange of reduced forest amenity values due to a public recreation use management plan. Since forest holdings are permanently exposed to several types of risk, the willingness-to-accept measure is defined within a subjective expected utility modeling approach. Our empirical analysis draws on data from a contingent valuation design carried out in 2006 in the Landes district in France. The empirical distribution of the subjective probability of fire risk is deduced from the forest owners’ perception of fire risks due to free recreation use. We then introduce our measurements of the fire risk as explanatory variables of the forest owners’ financial compensation requirements.     

Comparing leading theoretical models of behavioral predictions and post‐behavior evaluations

This study aimed at comparing the predictive power of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), the Model of Goal‐Directed Behavior (MGB), and the Extended Model of Goal‐Directed Behavior (EMGB) for observed and self‐reported behaviors concerning consumer nondurables. More specifically, the three models were compared in terms of their predictive power for intention and for behavioral desire (only MGB and EMGB). Additionally, the validity of four different models for predicting post‐behavior evaluations was examined. Results showed that the EMGB is the most powerful in predicting both intention and behavioral desire. Moreover, results revealed that, as expected, all three models showed a better predictive power for SRB than for observed behavior. Finally, results demonstrated that post‐behavior evaluations are both online and memory‐based. ©2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Do Not-For-Profits Make a Difference in Social Services? A Survey Study

Summary This paper provides a survey of the empirical literature on the relative performance of not-for-profit (NFP) organisations for three specific sectors. In particular, we compare the quality and accessibility of services that are provided by hospitals, child care organisations and welfare-to-work (WTW) organisations. Various mechanisms may explain the comparative advantages and disadvantages of not-for-profit organisations, as well as the origins of NFPs. We link these explanations to the actual relative performance of NFPs and discuss the implications for the government in mixed markets, where both for-profit (FP) and NFP organisations are. Our general finding is that NFPs do not make a difference on performance outcomes vis-à-vis FP organisations. It seems that the degree of competition, as well as regulatory policies are more important determinants of market performance.      

Measuring the placement effects of two wage-subsidy schemes for the long-term unemployed

A detailed evaluation is given of two dutch wage subsidy schemes. Aspects covered are: deadweight, displacement, effects an employment and continuity of labour-force participation. Both aggregate data (time-series and cross-section data) and individual survey data have been used to estimate the various effects.