Mossin's Theorem Given Random Initial Wealth

The purpose of this article is to reexamine Mossin's Theorem under random initial wealth. Conditions necessary and sufficient for Mossin's Theorem depend on the stochastic dependence between risks. The correlation coefficient, however, is not an adequate measure of stochastic dependence in the general expected‐utility model, and so other notions of dependence are used to investigate Mossin's Theorem. The inadequacy of the correlation coefficient is illustrated with two counterexamples. Then, using notions of positive and negative dependence measures, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for a generalized Mossin Theorem to hold. In addition, a generalized Mossin Theorem is interpreted using the notion of a mean preserving spread made popular by Rothschild and Stiglitz (1970) . Given a fair premium and dependent stochastic conditions, we show that an individual can obtain a final wealth distribution with less weight in its tails by selecting less than or more than full insurance.     

Rational Expectations is not Generally Valid for Econometric Models: Evidence from Stock Market Data

In applying the rational expectations hypothesis to generate expectations in an econometric model it is assumed that (1) the model itself is capable of generating reasonable forecasts of all required expectations variables included in the model, and that (2) the economic agents whose behavior is being modeled act as if they form their psychological expectations as conditional mathematical expectations generated by the model. Both assumptions can be invalid, as demonstrated by the historical data on Hong Kong stock prices and by the successful application of the adaptive expectations hypothesis to explain panel data of prices of individual stocks and aggregate time series data on stock price indices of the United States and of Hong Kong.     

A study on the key factors influencing international franchisors�� choice of entry modes into China

This paper examines factors associated with international franchising firms’ entry modes when they enter the Chinese market. To this end, a survey was conducted to investigate the linkage between entry modes and characteristics of franchising firms. The logit model and regression analysis were used to test the hypotheses. Findings reveal four factors that significantly influence international franchisors’ entry mode choices including cultural and geographic distance, international market experience, risk spreading, and maturity of the franchising system.     

热潮之下企业要不要做数据中台?

提及"中台",有人兴奋,有人迷茫,有人对其趋之若鹜奉为"神器",有人矢口否认称其为"迷信".短短几年时间,企业对其态度更快速经历了——争先恐后,望而却步,不过如此,略知一二,值得深究……这般过山车式的体验. 不可否认的是,无论是云服务商、应用软件厂商,还是数字营销厂商及用户,在谈及助力企业数字化转型、新业务创新时,都逃...     

The role of elasticity optimism in choosing an optimal currency basket with applications to Israel

In a world in which exchange rates are floating each country must have some device for measuring the average exchange rate change, whatever exchange rate policy it chooses. The weight for each currency in computing such an average depends on the objective which exchange rate stabilization, or change, is expected to achieve. If balance of trade stability is the desideratum, the optimum weights (optimum currency basket) are shown to be a function of demand elasticities, GNP, trade shares, etc. We derive a loss function measuring the cost of using a ‘wrong’ basket, and compute the value of this function for our ‘optimal’ Israeli basket as a case study.     

Managerial learning from social capital during internationalization

This study explores managerial learning from social capital during internationalization. Its two research questions are these: (1) how different managers perceive, interpret, and respond to foreign-market institutions, and (2) how connections, relations, and cognition enhance managerial learning. Using an interpretive approach, the study analyzes patterns of internationalization and strategic decision-making in four contrasting Norwegian case companies that internationalize to the Russian oil and gas market. The findings show that the managers of the case companies hold similar perceptions about foreign-market institutions, but that they interpret and respond to those institutions from various levels of learning, resulting in different enactment on institutions. Managers learning at a “higher” level adapt patterns and decisions to ensure institutional conformity, while those at a “lower” level makes minor adjustments in patterns and behavior only when necessary and therefore maintain institutional conflict. Further, the findings show that all three dimensions of social capital have a vital role in enhancing managerial learning, but that the various forms that the dimensions can appear as, affects the learning process. Furthermore, the findings show that managers who share cognitive frame of reference with few embedded relationships are better equipped to interpret and respond to institutions. This study contributes fresh insight about managerial enactment on foreign-market institutions, and reconciles our understanding about social capital as embraced by the structural, relational, and cognitive dimensions. This study also contributes to a greater understanding about how the three dimensions of social capital ought to be formed to enhance managerial learning.     

Budesonide with multi-matrix technology as second-line treatment for ulcerative colitis: evaluation of long-term cost-effectiveness in the Netherlands

Aims: Budesonide with multi-matrix technology (MMX) is an oral corticosteroid, shown to have high topical activity against ulcerative colitis (UC) while maintaining low systemic bioavailability with few adverse events. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of budesonide MMX versus commonly used corticosteroids, in the second-line treatment of active mild-to-moderate UC in the Netherlands.

Materials and methods: An eight-state Markov model with an 8 week cycle length captured remission, four distinct therapy stages, hospitalization, possible colectomy and mortality. Remission probability for budesonide MMX was based on the CORE-II study. Population characteristics were derived from the Dutch Inflammatory Bowel Disease South Limburg cohort (n?=?598) and included patients with proctitis (39%), left-sided (42%) and extensive disease (19%). Comparators (topical budesonide foam and enema, oral budesonide and prednisolone) were selected based on current Dutch clinical practice. Treatment effects were evaluated by network meta-analysis using a Bayesian framework. Cost-effectiveness analysis was performed over a 5 year time horizon from a societal perspective, with costs, health-state and adverse event utilities derived from published sources. Outcomes were weighted by disease extent distribution and corresponding comparators.

Results: Budesonide MMX was associated with comparable quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gain versus foam and oral formulations (+0.01 QALYs) in the total UC population, whilst being cost-saving (EUR 366 per patient). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis evaluated an 86.6% probability of budesonide MMX being dominant (cost-saving with QALY gain) versus these comparators. Exploratory analysis showed similar findings versus prednisolone.

Limitations: Differing definitions of trial end-points and remission across trials meant indirect comparison was not ideal. However, in the absence of head-to-head clinical data, these comparisons are reasonable alternatives and currently offer the only comparison of second-line UC treatments.

Conclusions: In the present analysis, budesonide MMX was shown to be cost-effective versus comparators in the total UC population, for the second-line treatment of active mild-to-moderate UC in the Netherlands.