宏观调控应强化理性的“供给管理”

当前我国宏观调控面临的形势,带有复杂性和不确定性特征。因为在宏观经济运行持续五年位于10％以上高速度区间、中央明确提出“两防”调控任务之后,又有了一系列客观上给经济降温、与“两防”目标同方向的“自然因素”已发生或有待观察：美国次贷危机引发的世界主要经济体景气低迷和全球经济增长减速;我国年初突发的冰雪灾害和“5·12”为害甚烈的汶川大地震;以及我国经济周期（经验性的）“节律”中高涨时段的临近期满,等等。     

Finite Dimensional Affine Realisations of HJM Models in Terms of Forward Rates and Yields

Finite dimensional Markovian HJM term structure models provide ideal settings for the study of term structure dynamics and interest rate derivatives where the flexibility of the HJM framework and the tractability of Markovian models coexist. Consequently, these models became the focus of a series of papers including Carverhill (1994), Ritchken and Sankarasubramanian (1995), Bhar and Chiarella (1997), Inui and Kijima (1998), de Jong and Santa-Clara (1999), Björk and Svensson (2001) and Chiarella and Kwon (2001a). However, these models usually required the introduction of a large number of state variables which, at first sight, did not appear to have clear links to the market observed quantities, and the explicit realisations of the forward rate curve in terms of the state variables were unclear. In this paper, it is shown that the forward rate curves for these models are affine functions of the state variables, and conversely that the state variables in these models can be expressed as affine functions of a finite number of forward rates or yields. This property is useful, for example, in the estimation of model parameters. The paper also provides explicit formulae for the bond prices in terms of the state variables that generalise the formulae given in Inui and Kijima (1998), and applies the framework to obtain affine representations for a number of popular interest rate models.     

土地市场构建国家民事主体制度的思考

法律规定国务院代表国家行使土地所有权,但国务院并不能实际履行代表行为,又没有转委托于其他主体而使所有权行使主体缺位.土地行政监管部门自封为土地所有权的出让人,其结果不但是主体错位,而且为地方政府通过公权力主体挟持民事主体而形成政府间的竞争提供了法律依据.追求政绩工程的区域竞争是政府垄断建设用地供应市场的动力,由地方政府形成的进入障碍是城乡建设用地市场二元结构的制度性原因.统一城乡建设用地市场的关键是国家民事主体的地位独立和平等.     

Macroeconomic risk and the cross-section of stock returns

We develop a conditional version of the consumption capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) using the conditioning variable from the cointegrating relation among macroeconomic variables (dividend yield, term spread, default spread, and short-term interest rate). Our conditioning variable has a strong power to predict market excess returns in the presence of competing predictive variables. In addition, our conditional CCAPM performs approximately as well as Fama and French’s (1993) three-factor model in explaining the cross-section of the Fama and French 25 size and book-to-market sorted portfolios. Our specification shows that value stocks are riskier than growth stocks in bad times, supporting the risk-based story.     

论城市商业银行的市场定位

城市商业银行在化解风险中生存、在风险控制的实践中壮大、在改革创新中发展,已成为我国银行体系中的一支有生力量.但城市商业银行仍是一支很脆弱的力量,要想在激烈的业内竞争中茁壮成长,准确的市场定位是首要解决的问题之一.     

Technical Change in a Model with Fair Wages and Unemployment

This paper uses a variable rate-of-growth model of life-cycle saving as developed by Fry and Mason (1982) to show that demographic factors were behind the rapid rise in saving in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. The steady decline in the population dependency ratio in an environment of rapid economic growth was the determining factor driving the trend rise in savings in these three countries. Furthermore, demographic trends can also explain the difference in saving ratios in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. When one compares these countries at the same stage in their development, Koreans did save "little" relative to Japan, but not relative to Taiwan, and this difference in saving can be explained by Korea's higher rate of dependency. [E21, N15]     

Foreign direct investment and China's regional income inequality

China's widening regional income inequality coupled with its pronounced regional disparity in foreign direct investment stock since 1990 has claimed the attention of many scholars. While some researchers confirm regional disparity in China's foreign direct investment, others attribute the widening regional income inequality to this regional disparity. This paper thus assesses the impacts of China's stock of foreign direct investment on its regional income inequality using simultaneous equation model and the Shapley value regression-based decomposition approach. Our results suggest that China's stock of foreign direct investment has accounted for merely 2% of its regional income inequality. Furthermore, the contribution ratio of per capita foreign direct investment stock to China's regional income inequality has relatively been on a steady decline since 2002. The decomposition results also reveal that provincial per capita physical assets account for over 50% of the nation's income inequality and 65% of the increases in income inequality since 1990. The other two important determinants of regional income inequality are province location and educational level. However, educational level is found to have a decreasing effect on regional income inequality.     

快速城镇化对山东省粮食生产的挑战

随着经济的快速发展,中国城镇化水平不断提高。在快速城镇化发展过程中,大量耕地资源被城市建设占用,大批农村劳动力进入城市,农业水资源紧张态势日趋严峻,农业产业结构调整使粮食作物种植面积不断减少,这些都对粮食生产和粮食安全产生了不利影响。因此,要协调好城镇化发展和粮食生产的关系,合理规划城镇用地,以保障粮食生产及安全。     

区域经济一体化快速发展的经济学分析

近年来区域经济一体化组织得到迅猛发展:欧盟东扩的成功;亚太经合组织合作紧密化;中国—东盟自由贸易区的发展等等。为何许多国家正在加快经济一体化的步伐?经济一体化到底会给成员国经济带来哪些影响?文章旨在运用经济学的方法研究经济一体化快速发展的根本原因。     

城市环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证分析——以北京为例

环境问题伴随着社会经济活动而产生,并随着社会经济的发展而发展,环境问题与经济发展、人口增长之间关系密切.本文依据2000-2010年北京市经济、人口和环境污染物排放量的统计数据,运用环境库兹涅茨曲线的理论模型,分析环境污染与经济发展、人口增长之间的关系.结果表明:自2000年以来,北京市经济快速发展、人口数量不断增长,但环境污染物排放量却持续下降,这主要与北京市的产业结构、环境保护政策、环境保护投资和环境宣传教育等因素相关;环境污染与经济发展、人口增长关系的数学模型可表述为E=β0Y-Y2.同时,为北京市进一步促进经济、人口、环境的和谐发展提出了一系列相关政策建议