Climate policy and the optimal extraction of high‐ and low‐carbon fossil fuels

Abstract. We study how restricting CO₂ emissions affects resource prices and depletion over time. We use a Hotelling‐style model with two non‐renewable fossil fuels that differ in their carbon content (e.g., coal and natural gas) and in addition are imperfect substitutes in final good production. We show that an economy facing a CO₂ flow‐constraint may substitute towards the relatively dirty input. As the economy tries to maximize output per unit of emissions it is not only carbon content that matters: productivity matters as well. With an announced constraint the economy first substitutes towards the less productive input such that more of the productive input is available when constrained. Preliminary empirical results suggest that it is cost‐effective to substitute away from dirty coal to cleaner oil or gas, but to substitute from natural gas towards the dirtier input oil.     

Existence of solutions in continuous-time optimal growth models

This paper studies the existence of solutions in continuous time optimization problems. It provides a theorem whose conditions can be easily checked in most models of the optimal growth theory, including those with increasing returns and multi-sector economies.      

Risky arbitrage,asset prices,and externalities

We introduce a no-risky-arbitrage price condition (NRAP) for asset market models allowing both unbounded short sales and externalities such as trading volume. We then demonstrate that NRAP is sufficient for the existence of competitive equilibrium in the presence of externalities. Moreover, we show that if all risky arbitrages are utility increasing, then NRAP characterizes competitive equilibrium in the presence of externalities. We are indebted to an anonymous referee for helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper. Page and Wooders are especially grateful to CERMSEM and EUREQua for their support and hospitality which made possible our collaboration.     

Legislating stock prices

We demonstrate that legislation has a simple, yet previously undetected, impact on stock prices. Exploiting the voting record of legislators whose constituents are the affected industries, we show that the votes of these “interested” legislators capture important information seemingly ignored by the market. A long-short portfolio based on these legislators' views earns abnormal returns of over 90 basis points per month following the passage of legislation. Industries that we classify as beneficiaries of legislation experience significantly more positive earnings surprises and positive analyst revisions in the months following passage of the bill, as well as significantly higher future sales and profitability. We show that the more complex the legislation, the more difficulty the market has in assessing the impact of these bills. Further, the more concentrated the legislator's interest in the industry, the more informative are her votes for future returns.     

ICT,BUSINESS SERVICES AND LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH

This paper focuses on the diffusion of knowledge intensive business services (KIBS) in relation to information and communication technology-based innovations and their effect on productivity growth. Intermediate purchases of KIBS by any other industry determine the extent of KIBS diffusion. This diffusion is seen as part of the broader process of organisational innovations. We find a significant positive relation between this measure of KIBS diffusion and the intensity of information technology (IT). Not only do use of IT and KIBS both contribute positively to labour productivity growth, we also find that the combination of these two inputs adds further to productivity growth for the aggregate economy.     

Public Debt Reduction in Advanced Countries and Its Impact on Emerging Countries

Financial crises accompanied by banking crises often entail heavy fiscal legacies. For the U.S., for example, the gross government debt to GDP ratio exceeded 100 % in 2012. Due to the unsustainability of public debt, both in the U.S. and in other advanced countries, moves towards a substantial reduction in debt levels would appear to be unavoidable. However, as shown in this paper, the long-run welfare impact of debt reduction in advanced countries, both at home and abroad, may prove to be somewhat of a disincentive for policy makers. In particular, we find that under conditions of dynamic inefficiency, and when Home (U.S.) has a negative external balance and a lower capital production share than Foreign (China), both domestic and foreign welfare decrease if Home reduces public debt.     

Zero Lower Bound Monetary Policy’s Effect on Financial Asset’s Correlations

We investigate the hypothesis that zero lower bound monetary policy has an effect on the correlations of financial assets. Using an event-study approach, we evaluate the impact of the zero lower bound monetary policies of the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Federal Reserve on the bond and equity markets in Japan, the UK, the US, and the Eurozone. We evaluate the bond markets using the Japanese 10-year Sovereign bond (JGB), UK 10-year bond (Gilt), US 10-year Treasury note (T-note), and German 10-year bond (Bund). For the equity markets we use the Nikkei 225, FTSE 100, S&P 500, and Euro STOXX 600 as proxies for each regional market. We also include gold and silver as control commodities. Our analyses demonstrate significant changes not only in the evaluated assets’ correlations with each other, but also in their general behavior. This has major implications for investment portfolio construction and provides useful insight for financial service regulators and the central banks themselves in monitoring the fragility and stability of the financial system.     

Key research themes on travel behavior,lifestyle, and sustainable urban mobility

abstract

The concept of lifestyle adds a behavioral component to travel models that used to be dominated by engineering and econometric traditions. This article presents an overview of how lifestyle is defined and measured in transport studies, and how travel behavior is influenced by lifestyles. Lifestyles are often used pragmatically rather than theoretically in the behavior studies. Nevertheless, some important theoretical contributions have been made, especially in sociology by scholars such as Weber, Bourdieu, Ganzeboom, and Schulze who agree on the communicative character of lifestyles: individuals express their social position through specific patterns of behavior, consumption, and leisure. These behavioral patterns are shaped by underlying opinions and orientations, including beliefs, interests, and attitudes. Thus, travel behavior is not simply determined by price, speed, and comfort but is also related to attitudes, status, and preferences. Because lifestyle has many different dimensions, a variety of measurement approaches exists. Nevertheless, most studies suggest that travel behavior is conditioned by specific lifestyles. How lifestyles themselves can be modified to promote more sustainable patterns of transport has not received much attention to date. This article argues that lifestyles need to be considered as dynamic rather than as static and given, and that future research could delve more deeply into this area.     

BUILDING PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS: Assessing and managing risks in port development

In recent years increasing dependencies between public and private organizations lead to a growing need for public-private partnerships. However, cultural and institutional differences between the public and private domain and, in addition, the difficulties of bringing the two together, constitute a serious threat to successful public-private partnership. The formation of these partnerships is further hindered by confusion of the concept of public-private partnership. The predominant model of contracting out restricts rather than enhances public-private interaction. This article deals with the difficulties and risks involved in building public-private partnerships and tries to answer the question of how to overcome them. The issue is illustrated by an analysis of the attempts made to realize a huge port expansion in the port of Rotterdam by means of establishing public-private partnership.     

Pay‐Level Satisfaction and Employee Outcomes: The Moderating Effect of Employee‐Involvement Climate

The present study examined employee‐involvement climate (i.e., information‐sharing and decision‐making climate) as a moderator of the relationship between pay‐level satisfaction and employee outcomes (i.e., job satisfaction, affective commitment, and turnover intention). Survey data were collected from 22,662 Belgian employees, representing 134 organizations. The hypotheses derived from distributive justice theory and from research on the meaning of pay received partial support. Multilevel analyses revealed that a decision‐making climate buffered the negative effects of low pay‐level satisfaction, and that an information‐sharing climate exacerbated the negative effects of low pay‐level satisfaction. Theoretical and practical implications of this differential moderating effect are discussed.