Industry concentration,excess returns and innovation in Australia

This paper examines market concentration and stock returns on the Australian Securities Exchange. We find that dominant companies operating in concentrated industries in Australia are able to generate significant risk‐adjusted excess stock returns. Our results for Australian data are opposite to that found by Hou and Robinson (2006) for United States market data. Hou and Robinson reason that United States firms which operate in concentrated industries are insulated from competitive pressures, have lower levels of innovation (Arrow, 1962) and therefore experience lower profitability and stock returns. By contrast, the Australian data show a significant and positive relationship between concentration and innovation expenditure. Therefore, the excess stock returns of dominant companies in Australia are consistent with previous research linking innovation expenditure with excess stock returns. We hypothesize that the apparent contradiction of our results compared with Hou and Robinson (2006) for the United States market is resolved by an examination of the differences in size and competition in United States and Australian industries and the consequent differential ability of dominant companies in the two countries to generate monopoly rents and invest in ‘Schumpeterian’ (Schumpeter, 1942) innovation.     

Developing Equity Release Markets: Risk Analysis for Reverse Mortgages and Home Reversions

Equity release products are sorely needed in an aging population with high levels of home ownership. There has been a growing literature analyzing risk components and capital adequacy of reverse mortgages in recent years. However, little research has been done on the risk analysis of other equity release products, such as home reversion contracts. This is partly due to the dominance of reverse mortgage products in equity release markets worldwide. In this article we compare cash flows and risk profiles from the provider's perspective for reverse mortgage and home reversion contracts. An at-home/in long-term care split termination model is employed to calculate termination rates, and a vector autoregressive (VAR) model is used to depict the joint dynamics of economic variables including interest rates, house prices, and rental yields. We derive stochastic discount factors from the no arbitrage condition and price the no negative equity guarantee in reverse mortgages and the lease for life agreement in the home reversion plan accordingly. We compare expected payoffs and assess riskiness of these two equity release products via commonly used risk measures: Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR).     

Cross-Hedging: Basis Risk and Choice of the Optimal Hedging Vehicle

The basis between a futures contract and its underlying instrument is an important measure of the cost of using the futures contract to hedge. In a cross-hedge, the relative size of the basis of alternative hedging vehicles often plays a decisive role in the selection of the optimal hedging vehicle. After adjusting hedge ratios for basis risk, a genuine risk-cost trade-off is seen in hedging 90-day certificates of deposit with either the Treasury bill contract or the Eurodollar contract. The Eurodollar contract was not uniformly superior as generally believed.     

Optimal foreign trade for the price-insensitive soviet-type economy

For a centrally planned economy in which the planners do not substitute among goods, either in production or consumption, in response to changes in relative prices, the short-run offer curve is in general backward-bending, and the planners will be indifferent as to whether the country is “small” or “large” in world markets as long as it faces an elastic foreign offer curve. The Soviet Union is found to have a backward-sloping offer curve in trade with the Western market economies. This suggests that systematic Soviet manipulation of this trade in order to earn monopoly profits is unlikely.     

Differential and More Favorable Treatment of Developing Countries and the International Trading System

This article argues that "differential and more favourable treatment"of developing countries in the General Agreement on Tariffsand Trade (GATT) has been a logical consequence of their owninward-looking policies and the GATT's implicit mercantilism,the latter implying that liberalization, being costly, shouldnot be demanded of relatively poor countries. Time has, however,reduced both the appeal of the protectionist model of developmentand the willingness of developed countries to accord differentialtreatment. The upshot has been pressure on more advanced developingcountries to "graduate" and a growing literature recommendingfuller and more equal participation of developing countriesin the GATT. The case for fuller and more equal participationis not self-evident. It needs to be assessed on its merits interms of the prospects for improved market access abroad andmore efficient policy at home. The analysis indicates that thepotential benefits should not be oversold. On balance, however,the most advanced developing countries would probably gain fromactive and more equal participation in both GATT and the multilateraltrade negotiations while the remaining developing countrieswould benefit from graduation by the more advanced.