Activity spaces: measures of social exclusion?

The paper provides a first investigation of the suitability of different measures of activity space size to identify persons at risk of social exclusion. This would be a new departure for the measurement of social exclusion, which so far has relied either on aggregate measures of locations or cross-sectional data of individuals.The size of a person's activity space can only be estimated with information reflecting a longer time horizon. In this paper the six-week travel diary survey (Mobidrive) is used, which was conducted in two German cities in 1999. About 95% of all local trips were coded for 300 respondents (about 45,000 trips).The paper develops three possible measurement approaches of increasing complexity (confidence ellipse, kernel density estimates, shortest paths networks). The analysis revealed that the main driver of the size of the activity spaces is the overall number of unique locations visited by the respondents and to a lesser extent, their socio-demographic characteristics. In particular, the groups most often consider to be at risk of social exclusion (female, lower income, elderly) did not show significantly different activity spaces.     

Expectations and interest rates on mortgage loans

We examine the role of expectations for interest rates on mortgage loans. Our empirical results, based on cointegration tests, indicate a violation of the expectations hypothesis on the German loan market. In contrast to the capital market, a failure of the expectations hypothesis on the loan market cannot be attributed to the market segmentation hypothesis. Using a simple two-period model, we can show that the deviation from the expectations hypothesis is stronger than on the capital market and such that it confirms the common practice of choosing between loans with variable or fixed interest rates.An earlier version was presented at the annual meeting of theVerein für Socialpolitik 1994. We are grateful to Jürgen Wolters and an anonymous referee for their useful comments and suggestions.     

Impact of ICT on the productivity of the firm: evidence from Turkish manufacturing

This paper aims to explore the impact of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) on labor productivity growth in Turkish manufacturing. This is the first attempt at exploring the impact of ICT on productivity in Turkish manufacturing at the firm level. The analysis is based on firm level data obtained from Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) and covers the period from 2003 to 2012. The data used in the analysis includes all firms employing 19+ workers in Turkish manufacturing industry. Growth accounting results show that the contributions of conventional and ICT capital to value added growth are not significantly different from each other. On the other hand, results based both on static (fixed-effects) and dynamic panel data analysis highlight the positive influence on firms’ productivity exerted by ICT capital. The findings show that the impact of ICT capital on productivity is larger by about 25 to 50% than that of conventional capital. This contribution of ICT capital is higher than that of non-ICT capital for small sized and low-tech firms. Our findings imply that investing in ICT capital increases firm productivity by increasing the productivity of labor and also that convention growth accounting approaches may not be adequate to identify such linkages.     

A Methodology for Farm-Level Economic Analysis of Soil Erosion Effects Under Alternative Crop Rotational Systems in Ontario

Multiperiod linear programming techniques are used to evaluate comparative profitabilities and soil erosion rates for corn grown monoculturally and in rotation with a) soybeans, b) soybeans and oats, c) barley, and d) alfalfa on moderately sloping land with medium loam soils in southern Ontario. Attention is focussed on the case of a highly leveraged recent entrant to farming with heavy debt servicing needs and potential cash flow constraints. Monocultural corn was found to be more profitable than any of the rotational systems, with corn-soybeans rotations the next most profitable and corn-barley rotations the least profitable. Corn-soybeans caused the highest soil erosion, followed by continuous corn, with corn-alfalfa rotations causing the least. Les techniques de programmation linéaire multipériode sont utilisées pour évaluer et comparer les niveaux de profit et les taux d' érosion de sols agricoles moyennement argileux pour des systèmes de production de grandees cultyres localiées dans le sud de l' ontario et produisant, soit du mais en régime de monoculture, soit du mais en rotation avec: a) du soja, b) soja et avoine, c) orge. et d) de la luzerne plantée sur des terrains à pentes modérées. L' analyse developpée dans cet article met l' accent sur des agriculteurs récemment installés, disposant de beaucoup d' actifs, mais également, ayant des besoins énormes d' emprunts et, par conséquent, soumis à des contraintes potentielles sur leurs cash-flows. Les résultats obtenus montrent que le système de production, mais-monoculture, est le plus viable de tous les systèmes etudies. Parmi les systemes de production reposant sur une rotation culturale, il s' avère que celui combinant maïs et soja vienne en seconde position, tandis que un régime cultural fondé sur une rotation maïs et orge donne les pires resultats. Pour ce qui concerne des taux d' erosion des sols, la rotation maïs-soja cause les plus gros dommages. ensuite suivie par le système de production, maïs-monoculture. Finalement, les taux d' erosion les plus faibles ont été obtenus pour la rotation culturale, maïs-luzerne.     

Historical Learning in the Design of WTO Rules: The EC Sugar Case

The Uruguay Round Agreement made significant changes to the governance of international trade. Trade rules and dispute settlement mechanisms were altered and a series of specific agreements provided for liberalisation across economic sectors. The Agreement on Agriculture, arguably the most difficult and contentious to negotiate, permitted the continued use of trade‐distorting instruments, both domestically and at the border. Rule‐enforcement in agriculture therefore relies crucially on the clarity of the rules. This paper provides an in‐depth study of a unique and critical case for understanding the new rules: the EC sugar regime. This policy was challenged unsuccessfully under the pre‐Uruguay Round rules, but successfully under the new rules. This case is particularly valuable in allowing us to isolate the effect of the Uruguay Round on agricultural trade disputes: the policy under challenge was essentially unchanged and the legal actions addressed the same concern – excessive export subsidisation. Drawing on primary and secondary materials and interviews with key policy actors, sugar is used to illustrate how those involved in the multilateral process learned from particular rule weaknesses revealed in earlier cases, revising those rules in the Uruguay Round in such a way that dispute panels can more readily and objectively determine rule breaches.     

Anti‐microbial hand washes for domestic use – their effectiveness in vitro and in normal use

The killing or removal of microbes from the hands is a critical factor in food safety as many studies have shown the hands to be both an important source of microbes and powerful agents of cross‐contamination in hospital and domestic situations. In response to this concern, a number of novel hand‐washing products have appeared on the market. These products contain anti‐microbial agents and claim to be more effective at removing bacteria than soap bars and conventional liquid soaps. This study attempts to test these claims by comparing the effectiveness of a conventional soap bar, a conventional liquid soap and an anti‐microbial liquid soap containing triclosan. In vitro tests demonstrate that the anti‐microbial liquid soap is more effective than conventional liquid soaps in reducing the viability of six bacterial species and that this effect is both time and dose dependent. However, when the three soaps were compared for their ability to reduce microbial counts on the hands no differences were observed between the three products. For all three soaps, counts after washing sometimes went up and sometimes down when compared with pre‐wash counts. This was the case both when the soaps were used ‘normally’– that is, with great variation in the time taken, water and soap volumes used and method of washing and after a standardized, rigorous wash recommended in clinical situations. Furthermore, reduction in microbial counts from hands contaminated by handling raw meat was no greater for the anti‐microbial than for the conventional liquid soap.     

Nonparametric Regression and Causality Testing:A Monte-Carlo Study

In this paper we propose a new procedure for causality testing using nonparametric additive models. We argue that the major advantage of our proposed method is that it can be used if the underlying data generation process (DGP) is either linear or nonlinear. Our results show that the nonparametric testing procedure provides a more robust test of causality. Furthermore, we show that the loss of power associated with the nonparametric procedure is minimal if the true DGP is linear.