Rational expectations,market shocks,and the exchange rate

The world economy has been subjected to numerous real shocks in recent years. In addition, purchasing-power parity seems to have collapsed. Critics of the monetary approach to the exchange rate have been quick to draw attention to these facts. This paper extends the basic framework of the monetary approach so that it provides a useful tool for explaining the impact of real shocks on the exchange rate and so that it is compatible with the existence of significant deviations from purchasing-power parity. The real shocks that are discussed include changes in commercial policy, the terms of trade, and productivity. It is demonstrated that real shocks influence the exchange rate through two distinct channels—a real-income channel and a deviations from purchasing-power-parity channel.     

Speak softly, but carry a big stick: On optimal targets under moral hazard

When managerial compensation is restricted to be constant below a certain target output level, and underlying effort is unobserved, a recent article by Liu suggests that the optimal sharing rule should be smooth and locally convex at the target. This is incorrect. If minimum payments are set exogenously, the optimal sharing rule for a risk-averse manager will be kinked at the target. If penalties are unbounded, the principal can approach the first-best full-information outcome by offering a constant payment under normal conditions but imposing a severe punishment for extremely unlikely low outcomes, i.e., by “speaking softly but carrying a big stick.”     

Dynamic Voluntary Contribution to a Public Project

We consider the dynamic private provision of funds to projects that generatepublic benefits. Participants have complete information about theenvironment, but imperfect information about individual actions: each periodthey observe only the aggregate contribution. Each player may contribute anyamount in any period before the contributing horizon is reached. All Nashequilibrium outcomes are characterized. In many cases they are all alsoperfect Bayesian equilibrium outcomes. If the horizon is long, if theplayers' preferences are similar, and if they are patient or the periodlength is short, perfect Bayesian equilibria exist that essentially completethe project. In some of them the completion time shrinks to zero with theperiod length—efficiency is achieved in the limit.     

A Comparison of Ethics of Investment Professionals: North America Versus Pacific Rim Nations

This study examines the ethical attitudes and practices of securities analysts and portfolio managers from four Pacific Rim countries – Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and Thailand – and compares the findings to a similar study of North American investment professionals to identify significant differences. The findings show that many differences exist due to cultural differences and differences in the regulatory environment between the Pacific Rim countries studied and North America.     

Futures studies as social science: An analytic scheme and a case study

Several authors in the futures studies field have in their efforts to improve quality argued that better methods must be developed, which makes sense. But the theoretical awareness in the substantive questions upon which the studies are based is probably more important.

In that light, the primary objective of this article is to formulate a method of how fundamental social issues (views on society and humanity) are addressed in a future study, apply it to one empirical case (telecommunications company Ericsson) and thereafter analyze the method's strengths and weaknesses.

The study shows that the method gained a satisfactory foothold in the material and it has an appropriate depth in relation to desired efficiency. This work has shown that the analytical method is relevant and adequate to understand and describe the orientation and contents of futures studies. Therewith, the study has generated greater awareness of fundamental assumptions in future studies that can contribute to enhancing their quality.     

Epidemiology of fatal and non-fatal drowning patients attended by paramedics in Victoria,Australia

Drowning is a major cause of injury and death worldwide. This study aims to expand the evidence in fatal and non-fatal drowning. A retrospective study was conducted to investigate fatal and non-fatal drowning incidents attended by ambulance paramedics in Victoria (Australia) from 2007 to 2012. A total of 509 drowning incidents were identified, 339 (66.6%) were non-fatal, with 170 (33.4%) resulting in death. Children aged 0–4 years had the highest crude drowning rate (7.95 per 100,000 persons). Non-fatal incidents were more likely to be witnessed by a bystander when compared with fatal incidents (43.7% vs. 20.0%, p < 0.001). Spatial analysis indicated that 35 (43.8%) local government areas (LGAs) were considered at ‘excess risk’ of a drowning event occurring. This study is the first to apply spatial analysis to determine relative risk ratios for fatal and non-fatal drowning. These findings will enable geographically targeted and age-specific drowning prevention activities.     

The suitability of computer‐based training for workers with limited formal education: a case study from the US agricultural sector

The suitability of computer‐based instruction (CBI) for workers with limited education was evaluated in an Hispanic orchard workforce that reported little computer experience and 5.6 mean years of formal education. Ladder safety training was completed by employees who rated the training highly (effect size [d_gain] = 5.68), and their knowledge of ladder safety improved (d_gain = 1.45). There was a significant increase (p < 0.01) in safe work practices immediately after training (d_gain = 0.70), at 40 days post training (d_gain = 0.87) and at 60 days (d_gain = 1.40), indicating durability. As in mainstream populations, reaction or affective ratings correlated well with utility ratings, but not with behavior change. This demonstrates that an agricultural workforce with limited formal education can learn job safety from CBI and translate the knowledge to work practice changes, and those changes are durable.     

Competitive conditions among the major British banks

This paper reports an empirical assessment of competitive conditions among the major British banks, during a period of major structural change. Specifically, estimates of the Rosse–Panzar H-statistic are reported for a panel of 12 banks for the period 1980–2004. The sample banks correspond closely to the major British banking groups specified by the British Banking Association. The robustness of the results of the Rosse–Panzar methodology is tested by estimating the ratio of Lerner indices obtained from interest rate setting equations. The results confirm the consensus finding that competition in British banking is most accurately characterised by the theoretical model of monopolistic competition. There is evidence that the intensity of competition in the core market for bank lending remained approximately unchanged throughout the 1980s and 1990s. However, competition appears to have become less intense in the non-core (off-balance sheet) business of British banks.     

Internal governance structures and earnings management

This paper investigates the role of a firm's internal governance structure in constraining earnings management. It is hypothesized that the practice of earnings management is systematically related to the strength of internal corporate governance mechanisms, including the board of directors, the audit committee, the internal audit function and the choice of external auditor. Based on a broad cross‐sectional sample of 434 listed Australian firms, for the financial year ending in 2000, a majority of non‐executive directors on the board and on the audit committee are found to be significantly associated with a lower likelihood of earnings management, as measured by the absolute level of discretionary accruals. The voluntary establishment of an internal audit function and the choice of auditor are not significantly related to a reduction in the level of discretionary accruals. Our additional analysis, using small increases in earnings as a measure of earnings management, also found a negative association between this measure and the existence of an audit committee.