Over the moon or sick as a parrot? The effects of football results on a club's share price

This article considers the impact of match results on the stock returns of English football clubs. We propose that the magnitude of the response to a given result depends on the importance of the game, which is measured in two ways. First, we consider the extent to which the clubs are close rivals vying for similar league positions, as winning such games is particularly significant. Second, we argue that each individual game becomes more important for those clubs likely to be promoted or relegated as the season draws to a close, since a given match will have increasing information content concerning the final league position of the club. Using a fairly large panel comprising data for 19 clubs, we find some support for the notion that stock prices are affected more by the results of important matches than matches of lesser importance. We also observe that the difference between the number of points the club secures from a given match, and the number it was expected to secure, affects its stock price, as does the number of goals that the club under question scores in the match, relative to its competitor.     

The road from Doha to Hong Kong in the WTO agricultural negotiations: a developing country perspective

Developing countries have both offensive and defensive interestsin the Doha Round of WTO trade negotiations. This paper discussesthe extent to which these interests have been addressed in theJuly 2004 Framework Agreement and in the subsequent negotiations.Many of the key demands of developing countries appear to havebeen accepted in principle in the Agreement, but the lack ofspecific details on how most of these principles will be operationalisedmakes it hard to evaluate their real significance. Progressis needed on the development dimension of the negotiations ifthe Hong Kong Ministerial Council meeting is to succeed.     

Organizational Changes Resulting from the Privatization of State Enterprises

Agency and public choice theories, though commonly used, can only provide a static approach to the study of privatization and often neglect the cultural, contextual and organizational settings of the enterprises affected by privatization. The authors present a new model which can be used to understand the organizational processes involved in a successful privatization. This article analyses the academic literature on privatization, describes the cases of two privatized Swedish companies and then offers suggestions for further research.     

Kalman filtering estimation of unobserved rational expectations with an application to the German hyperinflation

The assumption that rational expectations always lie on a convergent path is subject to an empirical test using the German hyperinflation data. The estimation technique employs a Kalman filtering algorithm. After presenting a brief background for the convergent expectations problem and a derivation of the various model specifications, a generalized expectations model and its attendant Kalman filtering estimation technique are discussed. Additional estimation details and empirical results are then presented. Based on an assumption of normally distributed errors, the null hypothesis of convergent paths is rejected in all situations involving a deterministic specification of the evolution of the unobserved parameter which characterizes the convergent path. The same null hypothesis is rejected in four of the six cases corresponding to a stochastic specification of the evolution of the unobserved parameter which characterizes the convergent path. A discussion of these findings, their economic significance, and suggestions for further research concludes the paper.     

Measuring Stigma: The Behavioral Implications of Disgust

Stigmatization of products and technologies can lead to large monetary losses even when there are no associative risks. This paper reports on experiments that provide insight into the behavioral responses of disgust from an economic perspective. We use a dead sterilized cockroach to ‘contaminate’ drinking water and generate willingness-to-pay (WTP) and willingness-to-accept (WTA) measures of participants’ reactions. These results are contrary to previous results from research not involving financial incentives, as most participants’ WTP and WTA values are near zero for drinking cockroach contaminated water. Additionally, filtration of cockroach water leads participants to become significantly more likely to request compensation compared to spring water, but it does not result in requesting significantly more money to drink it. Finally, WTP and WTA differences can be explained by participants’ decision on whether or not to request compensation and not by the amount of compensation.     

Can Stigma Explain Large Property Value Losses? The Psychology and Economics of Superfund

This research documents the long term impacts of delayed cleanup on property values in communities neighboring prominent Superfund sites. The research examines the sale prices of nearly 34,000 homes near sites in three metropolitan areas for up to a 30-year period. To our knowledge, no other property value studies have examined sites in multiple areas with large property value losses over the length of time used here. The results are both surprising and inconsistent with most prior work. The principal result is that, when cleanup is delayed for 10, 15, and even up to 20 years, the discounted present value of the cleanup is mostly lost. A possible explanation for these property value losses is that the sites are stigmatized and the homes in the surrounding communities are shunned. The results suggest that expedited cleanup and minimizing the number of stigmatizing events would reduce these losses. This research was supported by the USEPA under cooperative agreement CR 824393-01-0. The authors wish to thank Alan Carlin for his patience and support along with Shelby Gerking, Kip Viscusi and three anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful comments. We also would like to thank Christian Coerds, Graham Crawford, Rachel Deming, Karen Grace-Martin, Brian Hurd, Joe LaVerde, Eleanor Smith, and Matt Todaro for their support on this project and the participants of the Risk Perception, Valuation and Policy conference at the University of Central Florida and the AERE Workshop in Estes Park, Colorado, for their helpful feedback.     

The Dynamic Response of Housing Values to a Forest Invasive Disease: Evidence from a Sudden Oak Death Infestation

“Sudden Oak Death” (Phytophthora ramorum) is a non-indigenous forest pathogen which causes substantial mortality of coast live oak (Quercus agrifolia) and several other oak tree species on the Pacific Coast of the United States. We estimated the time path of residential property values subject to oak mortality using a dataset that spans more than two decades—including a decade of transactions before-and-after the invasion. The findings suggest moderate, persistent property value discounts (3–6%) for homes located near infested oak woodlands subject to continuous post-invasion declines in forest health. The most severe discounts (8–15%) occurred where dying oaks were distributed both within residential neighborhoods and in nearby woodlands. Various hedonic modeling specifications were tested and compared to assess their ability to control for bias associated with unobserved spatial effects.     

Internal governance structures and earnings management

This paper investigates the role of a firm's internal governance structure in constraining earnings management. It is hypothesized that the practice of earnings management is systematically related to the strength of internal corporate governance mechanisms, including the board of directors, the audit committee, the internal audit function and the choice of external auditor. Based on a broad cross‐sectional sample of 434 listed Australian firms, for the financial year ending in 2000, a majority of non‐executive directors on the board and on the audit committee are found to be significantly associated with a lower likelihood of earnings management, as measured by the absolute level of discretionary accruals. The voluntary establishment of an internal audit function and the choice of auditor are not significantly related to a reduction in the level of discretionary accruals. Our additional analysis, using small increases in earnings as a measure of earnings management, also found a negative association between this measure and the existence of an audit committee.