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101.
102.
Selva Demiralp Kevin D. Hoover Stephen J. Perez 《Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics》2008,70(4):509-533
Graph‐theoretic methods of causal search based on the ideas of Pearl (2000), Spirtes et al. (2000), and others have been applied by a number of researchers to economic data, particularly by Swanson and Granger (1997) to the problem of finding a data‐based contemporaneous causal order for the structural vector autoregression, rather than, as is typically done, assuming a weakly justified Choleski order. Demiralp and Hoover (2003) provided Monte Carlo evidence that such methods were effective, provided that signal strengths were sufficiently high. Unfortunately, in applications to actual data, such Monte Carlo simulations are of limited value, as the causal structure of the true data‐generating process is necessarily unknown. In this paper, we present a bootstrap procedure that can be applied to actual data (i.e. without knowledge of the true causal structure). We show with an applied example and a simulation study that the procedure is an effective tool for assessing our confidence in causal orders identified by graph‐theoretic search algorithms. 相似文献
103.
Kevin Lee 《Review of World Economics》1998,134(3):367-403
Cross-Country Interdependencies in Growth Dynamics: A Model of Output Growth in the G7 Economies, 1960–1994. — Recently developed methods in time series analysis are employed to study output growth across the G7 economies. The methods accommodate the interdependencies that exist between economies’ growth, and provide the means for analyzing the sources of shocks to output growth and for examining the time profiles of the shock effects. Sophisticated dynamic adjustments in output are identified, due to lagged responses to shocks, the feedback of effects across countries, and the differential speeds of response to different types of shock. Among the shocks considered, those to world trade and oil prices are shown to significantly affect many countries’ output levels. 相似文献
104.
We study whether boards of directors concentrate on performance near compensation decision times rather than providing consistent incentives for chief executive officers (CEO) throughout the fiscal year. We show empirically that managers can profit by moving sales revenue among fiscal quarters. Though this may suggest that boards use short-term trends when determining rewards, we find evidence consistent with boards tying pay to recent sales growth so as to use the best information about future performance. We also find that the timing of profits throughout the year does not affect CEO pay, which may suggest that smoothing firm income is important to CEOs. 相似文献
105.
This study examines the effect of firm-level corporate governance on the cost of equity capital in emerging markets and how the effect is influenced by country-level legal protection of investors. We find that firm-level corporate governance has a significantly negative effect on the cost of equity capital in these markets. In addition, this corporate governance effect is more pronounced in countries that provide relatively poor legal protection. Thus, in emerging markets, firm-level corporate governance and country-level shareholder protection seem to be substitutes for each other in reducing the cost of equity. Our results are consistent with the finding from McKinsey's surveys that institutional investors are willing to pay a higher premium for shares in firms with good corporate governance, especially when the firms are in countries where the legal protection of investors is weak. 相似文献
106.
Capital management by mutual financial institutions (such as credit unions) provides a valuable testing ground for assessing the impact of capital regulation and theories of managerial behaviour in financial institutions. Limited access to external equity capital means that capital accumulation must be met primarily by reliance on retained earnings. To deal with shocks to the capital position and avoid breaching regulatory requirements, managers will aim to have a buffer of capital in excess of the regulatory minimum. Moreover, mutual governance arrangements and an absence of capital market discipline mean that managers have discretion to set target capital ratios which differ significantly from industry averages. This paper develops a formal model of capital management and risk management in mutual financial institutions such as credit unions which reflects these industry characteristics. The model is tested using data from larger credit unions in Australia, which have been subject to the Basel Accord Risk Weighted Capital Requirements since 1993. The data supports the hypothesis that credit unions manage their capital position by setting a short term target profit rate (return on assets) which is positively related to asset growth and which is aimed at gradually removing discrepancies between the actual and desired capital ratio. Desired capital ratios vary significantly across credit unions. There is little evidence of short run adjustments to the risk of the asset portfolio to achieve a desired capital position. 相似文献
107.
108.
This paper examines the role of the no-arbitrage condition in financial markets with heterogeneous expectations. We consider
a single-period, state-contingent claims model, withM risky securities andS states. There exist two types of heterogeneously informed investors, where the information heterogeneity is defined with
respect to either the security payoff matrix, the state probability vector, or state partitions.
When the information heterogeneity is defined with respect to either the security payoff matrix or state partitions, the no-arbitrage
condition imposes a constraint on the dispersion of information between informed and uninformed investors. Further, the no-arbitrage
condition is useful in ascertaining the patterns of heterogeneity among investors that are consistent with equilibrium. However,
when the information heterogeneity is defined with respect to state probabilities, the role of the no-arbitrage condition
is severely restricted. Finally, the no-arbitrage condition may have important implications for the (necessary and sufficient)
conditions for the existence of an equilibrium price vector in financial markets with heterogeneous expectations. 相似文献
109.
Kevin C. Ahlgrim Stephen P. D'Arcy Richard W. Gorvett 《The GENEVA Papers on Risk and Insurance - Theory》2004,29(1):75-108
Managing interest rate risk for property-liability insurers requires appropriate measurement of the sensitivity of liabilities to movements in interest rates. Most prior studies have assumed that interest rates shift in a parallel fashion and that the cash flows from liabilities are unaffected by interest rate changes. This article recognizes that unpaid property-liability (P-L) insurance losses are inflation-sensitive, that movements in interest rates will affect future claim payouts due to the correlation between interest rates and inflation and that interest rates are stochastic. The effective duration and convexity of P-L insurance liabilities calculated based on this approach are substantially lower than those measured using traditional approaches, which has important implications for asset-liability management by P-L insurers. 相似文献
110.