Productivity bargaining: a reassessment

While governments tend to regard productivity bargaining as a long term anti-inflationary weapon, the author's research points out its weaknesses in this direction, and indicates that productivity bargaining may ultimately have far more important effects on the structural and behavioural development of collective bargaining at plant level.     

Mark-up Pricing and the Forward Shifting of the Corporate Income Tax

Abstract
The framework used to test the hypothesis of forward income tax shifting is based on a simple mark-up pricing model and follows the methodology of Beath (1979). In this framework indications of forward tax shifting are inferred if the gross mark-up varies in order to achieve a targeted net of tax mark-up. Empirical results derived support the hypothesis and suggest significant forward corporate income tax shifting in Australian manufacturing companies over the data period 1968 to 1990.     

Elections, exchange rates and reform in Latin America

In this paper, we study the link between real exchange rate (RER) depreciation and elections in Latin America. Our contribution is threefold. First, we employ a statistical model that takes into account the pervasive conditional heteroskedasticity found in financial data and includes a wide range of macroeconomic variables as regressors. Second, we test whether the wave of central bank reform that swept the region has had any effect on the existence or strength of the electoral cycle in exchange rates. Third, we test an additional hypothesis, namely, that financial liberalization may also be an important variable explaining changes in electoral effects on the real exchange rate. In a panel of 9 Latin American countries with available macroeconomic data and a history of exogenous election dates, we confirm the previous findings that real depreciation intensifies after elections even when modeling the significant conditional heteroskedasticity in these data. We also show, for the first time in the literature, that post-election exchange rates are significantly less predictable. We go on to test whether central bank reform has influenced the way in which elections affect the RER in Latin America. If reform has been effective at reducing political manipulation of the exchange rate, then any relationship we see between elections and the RER before central bank reform should be mitigated in the post-reform era. We find that the relationship disappears after reform and that post-reform real exchange rates are also significantly less volatile. Finally, we show that financial liberalization seems to have a stronger effect on the conditional variance of the RER than does central bank reform, but reform has a stronger impact on the conditional mean.     

How community context affects entrepreneurial process: A diagnostic framework

This study reports a multi-faceted search to discover and articulate, in the form of a manageable framework, a diagnostic system for assessing the influence that community factors will have upon the conduct and outcome of any proposed entrepreneurial process. A methodological approach based on investigation of a rich empirical database supported by a wide examination of extant theory in several literatures, resulted in the production of a diagnostic system whose diagrammatic depiction employs a ‘bridge’ analogy. It depicts the culmination of the diagnostic procedure as the ability of different travellers (entrepreneurial actors and community members affected by their actions) to proceed via multiple pathways from an origin to a destination. The origin is a deep understanding of the community as an intermediate environment containing factors both conducive and hostile to any proposed entrepreneurial process. This deep understanding is founded upon intense local examination of the nature and interrelationship of three generic institutional components of any community: physical resources, human resources and property rights, and three generic human factors: human resources, social networks and the ability to span boundaries. The destination thus becomes a contextualised understanding and re-articulation of any proposed entrepreneurial process under consideration. Validation of the efficacy of the framework is being undertaken internationally as a key component of seven substantial projects, which simultaneously involve research and practice. Implications for research and practice are discussed.     

The cost implications of an early versus delayed invasive strategy in acute coronary syndromes: the TIMACS study

Background:

The Timing of Intervention in Acute Coronary Syndromes (TIMACS) trial demonstrated that early invasive intervention (within 24 hours) was similar to a delayed approach (after 36 hours) overall but improved outcomes were seen in patients at high risk. However, the cost implications of an early versus delayed invasive strategy are unknown.

Methods and results:

A third-party perspective of direct cost was chosen and United States Medicare costs were calculated using average diagnosis related grouping (DRG) units. Direct medical costs included those of the index hospitalization (including clinical, procedural and hospital stay costs) as well as major adverse cardiac events during 6 months of follow-up. Sensitivity and sub-group analyses were performed. The average total cost per patient in the early intervention group was lower compared with the delayed intervention group (?$1170; 95% CI ?$2542 to $202). From the bootstrap analysis (5000 replications), the early invasive approach was associated with both lower costs and better clinical outcomes regarding death/myocardial infarction (MI)/stroke in 95.1% of the cases (dominant strategy). In high-risk patients (GRACE score ≥141), the net reduction in cost was greatest (?$3720; 95% CI ?$6270 to ?$1170). Bootstrap analysis revealed 99.8% of cases were associated with both lower costs and better clinical outcomes (death/MI/stroke).

Limitations:

We were unable to evaluate the effect of community care and investigations without hospitalization (office visits, non-invasive testing, etc). Medication costs were not captured. Indirect costs such as loss of productivity and family care were not included.

Conclusions:

An early invasive management strategy is as effective as a delayed approach and is likely to be less costly in most patients with acute coronary syndromes.     

Portfolio maturity choice of Australian cash management trusts

Money Market Mutual Funds, known in Australia as Cash Management Trusts (CMTs), provide potential benefits for retail investors from pooling of funds and superior portfolio (maturity) management skills. The average maturity of CMT assets exhibits significant variation both cross sectionally and over time, but there is significant correlation between the asset maturities of different CMTs. These variations could reflect decisions about optimal asset maturity by CMT management, given their expectations of future interest rate movements. This paper examines (and rejects) the hypothesis that CMT management has superior interest rate forecasting ability by testing whether asset maturity of CMTs provides any information about future interest rate movements. The correlation between CMT maturity decisions appears to reflect the tendency of some CMTs to adjust maturity in response to current changes in market interest rates.     

Effects of Health and Longevity on Financial Risk Tolerance

We investigate the effects of health and life expectancy on tolerance of financial risk. Using a standard life-cycle model, we find that the effects of health and life expectancy on preferences over lifetime-income risk are theoretically ambiguous. However, risk tolerance is independent of health and life expectancy when utility takes one of the standard (harmonic absolute risk aversion) functional forms or when optimal consumption is constant over time. Our empirical results, using data from a stated-preference survey (n=2,795), suggest that financial risk tolerance is positively associated with both health and life expectancy; hence utility is not consistent with standard functional forms.     

Residential Mortgage Markets and the Cost of Mortgage Funds

Early federal housing finance policy appears to have been largely directed at making mortgages more marketable. The creation of FHA, FNMA and FHLMC were designed to homogenize the mortgage instrument and to develop a secondary market for it. Apparently because of a lack of demand for marketability by investors, extensive trading of mortgages has not developed. Nonetheless, the fantastic growth in mortgage pools (as well as the unanticipated growth in FNMA holdings) has increased competition in the supplying of some intermediation functions (mortgage bankers have greatly expanded originations and servicing), has improved interregional flows of mortgage funds, and has given mortgage borrowers a greater access to capital markets generally. The principal result has been a decline in the mortgage rate relative to other market rates, although the inflation-triggered explosion in the demand for mortgage funds in recent years appears to be offsetting the impact of the growth in federal credit broadly defined.     

Information and decision making: A search for method and understanding

Despite the emphasis during the 1980s on value for money and the need to increase business efficiency in order to face competitive world markets, exactly how managers search for information for business decisions remains a neglected topic of academic inquiry. In response to this situation, the paper has two purposes. The first is to develop an initial understanding of how information is searched and used in business contexts; the paper describes how participants searched and used accounting information in a relatively unstructured competitive tendering task. Second, it shares the experiences gained from trying to research the topic. A number of experimental design and analysis issues are raised and discussed.