International deflation risks under alternative macroeconomic policies

We use a version of the Global Projection Model covering the United States, Euro area and Japan to assess options for dealing with the looming risk of international deflation. The zero floor to interest rates constrains monetary policy. Confidence intervals, derived from stochastic simulations, indicate ranges of uncertainty. The results suggest a high probability of a declining price level for a couple of quarters in 2009. Suitable policy adaptations reduce the risk that this might turn into a prolonged, global deflation. These include: a price level path target for monetary policy, which would respond to previous, as well as expected, shortfalls from the desired inflation rate; a more stimulative fiscal policy; and an increase in the long-run target for inflation.     

Does the law of one price hold in China? Testing price convergence using disaggregated data

This study examines to what extent prices diverge across China and how long it takes prices to converge following idiosyncratic shocks. We consider monthly data using disaggregated goods prices from 36 cities in China. Following [Imbs, J., Mumtaz, H., Ravn, M., and Rey, H., 2005. PPP strikes back: aggregation and the real exchange rate. Quarterly Journal of Economics 120, 1–44.], we use two estimation methods: a fixed effect method when considering goods individually and a mean group estimation specification for a panel including all goods simultaneously. The mean group method also accounts for dynamic heterogeneity across goods. Impulse response functions are obtained to calculate half-lives. With both methods, we find half-lives of only a few months or less, supporting the conjecture that convergence rates within a country are faster than rates estimated in an international context. However, the half-life reported here is still shorter than that for other studies using disaggregated intracountry data. Perhaps a lower degree of specialization and market differentiation in developing countries creates a greater potential for price convergence.     

Socioeconomic Status,Religion and Health in India: an Examination of Chronic and Communicable Diseases

The literature on socioeconomic status and health suggests that those in higher positions have better health, and those in lower positions have worse health. There is little evidence of an SES gradient in non-industrialized countries, however, and it is uncertain whether the health gradient established in many Western countries would apply in developing countries. In this study, the authors examine patterns in health outcomes by caste and religion in India, a developing country. Results from a nationally representative sample, the Indian Human Development Survey, suggest that while high SES social groups report less communicable disease, they report a higher prevalence of chronic diseases than low SES groups. This study demonstrates the need to examine diseases of affluence among high SES groups in developing countries while also identifying the particular health concerns that are prevalent among low SES groups.     

Fundamental Analysis: Combining the Search for Quality with the Search for Value

Using cross‐sectional forecasts, we combine fundamental analysis strategies based on quality, such as the FSCORE from Piotroski (2000) and the GSCORE from Mohanram (2005), with strategies based on value, such as the V/P ratio from Frankel and Lee (1998) and the PEG ratio. While all four strategies generate significant hedge returns, combining quality‐driven and value‐driven approaches substantially improves the efficacy of fundamental analysis. Our parsimonious two‐dimensional approach can be applied to a wide cross section of stocks and outperforms common practitioner approaches that require a lengthy time series of data. The improvements in hedge returns hold for a variety of partitions and are robust to controls for risk factors and other determinants of stock returns. While the efficacy of fundamental analysis has declined in recent years, this can partially be attributed to investors arbitraging away excess returns by investing in fundamental strategies.     

Games Students Play: Incorporating the Prisoner's Dilemma in Teaching Business Ethics

The so-called "Prisoner's Dilemma" is often referred to in business ethics, but probably not well understood. This article has three parts: (1) I claim that models derived from game theory are significant in the field for discussions of prudential ethics and the practical decisions managers make; (2) I discuss using them as a practical pedagogical exercise and some of the lessons generated; (3) more speculatively, I suggest that they are useful in discussions of corporate personhood.     

工作上的伙伴：汇丰和交行

2006年9月30日至10月21日,交通银行有关部门负责人和分行行长共10人在汇丰集团的伦敦总部参加了"交通银行高管人员领导能力培训班"。这是交行和汇丰首次举办的针对交行高管人员的领导能力培训项目,得到了双方高层的高度重视,汇丰对培训内容作了专门策划、精心安排,交行高管对学习主动积极、全心投入,培训获得了良好效果。20天的培训紧张而充实,培训内容涵盖三大板块--汇丰集团经营管理概览、领导能力和战略思维、零售银行业务与分行经营,总计36项课程。让我们走近汇丰,近距离地感受这个全球金融业翘楚的理念、战略和思维；让我们走近汇丰,无障碍地体会西方优秀银行的文化、品牌和精神。本栏目撷取了组织此次培训的汇丰集团学习与发展部高级经理Kevin Dolling,以及参加此次培训的几位交行高管人员的学习体会,希冀读者能从他们的心得感受中收获对中国金融业改革有益的借鉴和帮助。     

Tourism and the Precautionary Principle

The precautionary principle is an emerging norm of international environmental policy affirmed in many treaties and laws. The principle, congruent to the ideal of sustainable development, is a controversial future-focused planning and regulatory mechanism which mandates that to protect against threats of serious and irreversible damage, precaution should be exercised even before harm can be scientifically demonstrated. The intent of this paper is to provide a literature review of the precautionary principle, examine the fundamental concepts underlying the principle and present an introductory discussion regarding its applicability to the tourism industry. Time and again numerous direct and indirect impacts are produced by the tourism industry, yet the potential for integrating precaution into tourism planning has not been examined. The authors consider the critical elements of the principle (uncertainty, risk, costbenefit analysis and science) in relation to the tourism industry, and provide examples of reference to the principle in the policy documents of non-governmental tourism organisations. An adapted framework is proposed for incorporating the precautionary principle into better tourism-industry decision-making. The precautionary principle is predicated as a viable tourism development tool and planning mechanism that safeguards environmental and human health by anticipating and controlling for future impacts of tourism.     

Does mandatory food safety training and certification for restaurant employees improve inspection outcomes?

The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between mandatory food safety training and certification and inspection results of chain restaurants and independent restaurants, using current food safety inspection results of food service establishments in Central Florida. More specifically, this study examines whether there is any statistically significant difference in the violation frequency among chain and independent restaurants. Reducing the risk of any foodborne illness is a critical strategy that industry stakeholders should pursue in an area dominated by tourism such as Orlando, Florida. A one-way ANOVA was used to determine the differences between the two types of restaurants. Findings indicate that there is significant difference between chain and independent restaurants for critical violations. No difference was found when comparing chain verses independent restaurants for non-critical violations.