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71.
Khalid H.A. Siddig 《Revue africaine de developpement》2012,24(3):245-254
Abstract: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has worked with Sudan since 1997 to implement a managed float exchange rate. The IMF sees exchange rate flexibility as key to safeguard and rebuild foreign exchange reserves and essential to meet the international reserve target in Sudan. However, authorities in Sudan are concerned about the inflationary pressures that exchange rate flexibility may cause. A review of the literature reflects huge ambiguity about the outcome of exchange rate policies in Sudan. This calls for additional empirical investigations. This paper applies a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to investigate the possible effects of devaluing the currently overvalued Sudanese pound, by simulating a depreciation of the Sudanese pound by 5 per cent, 10 per cent and 15 per cent. Based on the results, the study recommends that additional flexibility of the Sudanese exchange rate regime as suggested by the IMF be carefully considered if such flexibility devalues the Sudanese pound. 相似文献
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73.
Khalid Hassan Ali Siddig 《美中经济评论(英文版)》2010,(12):13-30
The latest episode of the armed conflict between Northern and Southern Sudan erupted in 1983 and ended with the signing of the "Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)" in 2005. The CPA allows for a referendum on independence for South Sudan in 2011. A similar scenario is possible for Darfur, where an armed conflict broke out in 2003 over demands for greater decentralization and development in the region. The peace agreement between the central government and the Eastern Sudan region continues to be fragile, and the risk of escalation of across the border spillovers of conflicts with Uganda and Chad persists. The U.S., EU, among other global players, is putting pressure on the Khartoum government to change its policies. Economic sanctions are among the tools used by the U.S. government while encouraging others follow suit. This paper investigates the response of the Sudanese economy to eliminating trade flows with the EU in the first phase and with East-Asian countries in the second. It discusses the changes in the macro-indicators, trade variables and welfare measures that would result. Moreover, it assesses the potential trade diversion and resource reallocation due to sanctions in each phase. To simulate these scenarios, detailed economic databases for Sudan, EU, East-Asian region, MENA, COMESA and the rest of the world are needed. For this purpose, GTAP Africa database and the standard GTAP model are employed. The 57 sectors of Africa database are aggregated to ten sectors including: grains and crops, livestock and meat products, mining and extraction, processed food, textiles and clothing, light manufacturing, heavy manufacturing, utilities and construction, transport and communication and other services. Moreover, the database regions are aggregated to six including Sudan, the EU, East Asia, MENA, COMESA and the Rest of the world. Results show that Sudanese trade reallocates to Asia in the first phase and to COMESA and MENA regions in the second. Sanctions exact a devastating toll on the Sudanese economy: GDP declines, trade shrinks and welfare deteriorates. The deterioration in the country's trade is mainly in the imports side, which justifies an improvement of the country's balance of trade, while welfare losses are derived by a deteriorated terms of trade and allocative efficiency. 相似文献
74.
This article uses a systems framework to search for criteria for determining the rates of use of material resources. The existing criteria, which are found in the neoclassical economic theory and the environmental movement, are reexamined, and their limitations are discussed. The criteria for material resource use identified by this article emphasize that resources be selected from the environment on the basis of their regeneration time constant and consumed in a way that should maintain adequate organizational slack in the system. Based on these criteria, geological information about material resources appears to take precedence as the basis for determining their rates of use over their economic feasibility and efficiency of use. 相似文献
75.
We propose a model of the short-term behaviour of the monetary authorities of a small open economy that is willing to stabilize, to some extent, its bilateral exchange rate vis-à-vis a dominant partner. The optimal money supply strategy is derived using intertemporal optimization arguments, in a rational expectations environment, The model is formulated so as to avoid the time inconsistency problem stressed by Kydland and Prescott (1977). It allows econometric estimation of the optimal money supply rule as well as of the parameters of the intertemporal utility function, and of the function that defines the intermediate target money stock. The model is successfully estimated on Canadian quarterly data, using maximum-likelihood techniques. 相似文献
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77.
The objective of the study is to investigate the link between economic growth and financial development (i.e., broad money supply, credit to private sector (CPS) and bank deposit liabilities) in human development for a panel of selected South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries; namely, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka during 1988–2008; over the period of 1988–2008. The panel cointegration technique is employed for analysis of short and long-run relationship between the variables. The results of panel cointegration found that there is a long-run relationship between financial development indicators and economic growth in human development in SAARC region. The estimated results indicate that in the short run, bank deposit liabilities exerts the maximum impact (i.e., 0.425 %) on human development in SAARC region, subsequently, broad money supply (i.e., 0.301 %) and CPS (i.e., 0.128 %) respectively, while there is a negative relationship between real GDP growth and human capital (i.e., \(-\) 0.189 %). In the long-run, DOLS estimator constitutes broad money supply which increases by 0.912 %, followed by credit to private sector (i.e., 0.121 %) on human development. While, in case of FMOLS estimator, these results are disappear, as broad money supply does not have any significant impact on human development in SAARC region. The coefficient of real GDP per capita in both estimators, have a negative impact on human development, however, the intensity of both estimators are different in nature, as real GDP per capita decrease human development in FMOLS (i.e., \(-\) 0.828 %) and in DOLS estimators (i.e., 0.458 %). The results indicate that due to a low quality of human capital in SAARC region; the direct effect of economic growth becomes negative; however, financial development indicators act as an important driver for increase in human capital in SAARC region. The implications of present research relate to heightening the need for labor market reforms and making the educational system more flexible. 相似文献
78.
Habib Ullah Khan Khalid A. AlShare 《Journal of Organizational Computing & Electronic Commerce》2019,29(1):4-23
The present study analyzes the elements that differentiate violators from non-violators of information security measures. Various elements are derived from established theories and models such as general deterrence theory, theory of planned behavior, theory of reasoned action, protection motivation theory, and social cognitive theory. To examine these factors, the data are gathered through an online study conducted in a Midwestern University, USA. The data are collected using questionnaires, and after scrutiny, 195 questionnaires are selected for final analysis. This data are analyzed using second-level statistical techniques, such as chi-square analysis and ANOVA. Results reveal that violators and non-violators of information security measures differ significantly with respect to many factors. These factors include perceived privacy, subjective norms, perceived information security policy (ISP) scope, perceived severity of penalty, perceived celerity of penalty, management support, organizational security culture, and perceived organizational IT capability. The non-significant factors are trust and work load. Implications for practitioners and researchers are provided. 相似文献
79.
Employee turnover continues to be a major problem within the hotel industry. This survey-based study examined the relationship between work-family conflict and turnover intentions among hotel employees in both China and the U.S., with an additional emphasis on female employees. While the results do confirm that work-family conflict is positively related with turnover intentions, work-family conflict is more strongly related to turnover intentions among males than females. The relationship is also stronger in Chinese hotel female employees than their U.S. counterparts. Results demonstrated that neither marital status nor parenthood influences the relationship between work-family conflict and turnover intentions among hotel female employees. Management implications and future research directions are provided. 相似文献
80.
Frédéric Docquier Joël Machado Khalid Sekkat 《The Scandinavian journal of economics》2015,117(2):303-346
In this paper, we quantify the effect of a complete liberalization of cross‐border migration on the world GDP and its distribution across regions. We build a general equilibrium model, endogenizing bilateral migration and income disparities between and within countries. Our calibration strategy uses data on effective and potential migration to identify total migration costs and visa costs by education level. Data on potential migration reveal that the number of people in the world who have a desire to migrate is around 400 million. This number is much smaller than that predicted in previous studies, and reflects the existence of high “incompressible” migration costs. In our benchmark framework, liberalizing migration increases the world GDP by 11.5–12.5 percent in the medium term. Our robustness analysis reveals that the gains are always limited, in the range of 7.0 percent (with schooling externalities) to 17.9 percent (if network effects are accounted for). 相似文献