The timing of prepayment: A theoretical analysis

This article develops the analytical methods necessary to determine the prepayment patterns of a mortgage contract. The most obvious measure of how many years a mortgage is likely to last is the expected time to termination. It is this measure that we most fully explore. However, since the method employed is able to characterize the probability of prepayment in any given time period, the means is provided to determine any measure of the time to termination.     

Water Resources in the Asia-Pacific Region: Managing Scarcity

Irrigation, together with improved crop varieties and substantial growth in fertiliser use in the late 1960s through the early 1980s, was a key factor in stimulating strong agricultural growth in much of the Asia-Pacific region. New sources of water are increasingly expensive to exploit, but irrigation continues to be a major catalyst for agricultural growth. In the face of increasing degradation, the maintenance of the water resource base must be a high priority policy objective. This paper reviews the management of water resources in the Asia-Pacific region, for countries with significant irrigated area: Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Korea-DPR, Republic of Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.     

The effect of relative performance feedback on individual performance in team settings under group-based incentives*

This study reports the results of an experiment that analyses the behavioural effect of relative performance feedback (RPF) on individual performance when compensation is based on team performance. Specifically, it investigates whether RPF affects individual performance differently when the comparison focuses on other members of that individual’s team (within-group RPF) or on other teams (between-group RPF). We predict a negative effect of within-group RPF on individual performance. We also predict that between-group RPF moderates that negative effect, since it encourages individuals to focus on group goals rather than individual goals. Consistent with our predictions, results show that the negative effect of within-group RPF on individual performance is mitigated by between-group RPF. Our results can help accountants to better understand how the effects of relative performance feedback differ according to the predominant comparison target.     

Rethinking the role of NCBs in the EMU

Five years after the introduction of unified monetary policy in the EMU, some member countries are wondering whether they have ceded too much of their policy-making powers. The fact that National Central Banks no longer carry out sizable expansionary open market or foreign exchange market operations suggests that they face substantially reduced abilities to set economic policy.This paper demonstrates that, in fact, very little power has been yielded: on the fiscal front, the force of such policy initiatives is enhanced by the fixity of the exchange rate. On the monetary front, we show that there is an observational equivalence between all Central Bank actions under fixed exchange rates. This implies that the authorities retain the same amount of policy flexibility as before. So long as they use an alternative form of policy initiative, carrying out what previously would have been characterized as sterilized foreign exchange market operations, their ability to influence the macro performance of their economy is undiminished.     

Implementation of Four Models for Outstanding Liabilities in Winbugs: A Discussion of a Paper by Ntzoufras and Dellaportas

Abstract

Ntzoufras and Dellaportas (2002) described four models for outstanding claim amounts of the “reported but not settled” variety. Two of the models incorporated claim-counts data in addition to the claim amounts themselves in order to add a hierarchical stage in the usual log-normal and state-space models. The purpose of this discussion is to describe how the models presented in Ntzoufras and Dellaportas may be implemented using WinBUGS. The use of WinBUGS to implement the Bayesian analysis of a number of other actuarial models was considered by Scollnik (2001).     

Designing a Countercyclical Insurance Program for Systemic Risk

This article proposes a framework for measuring and managing systemic risk. Current solvency regulations have been criticized for their focus on individual firms rather than the system as a whole. We show how an insurance program can be designed to deal with systemic risk through a risk charge on participating institutions. The risk charge is based on the generalized co‐conditional tail expectation, a conditional risk measure adapted from conditional value‐at‐risk. Current regulations have been criticized on the grounds that their capital requirements are procyclical. They require extra capital in periods of extreme stress thus exacerbating a crisis. We show how to construct a countercyclical risk charge and illustrate the approach using a numerical example.