Measuring persistence in Croatian tourism: evidence from the Adriatic region

This study examines the degree of persistence in foreign tourist arrivals and overnight stays for seven Croatian coastal counties over the period January 1998 to December 2013 using fractional integration techniques. Our findings reveal that the respective regional tourism indicators exhibit seasonal unit roots which require seasonal first differences to render the respective time series stationary. With respect to the long-run evolution of the respective time series, both the parametric and semi-parametric fractional integration approaches show the degree of persistence is greater than zero, but significantly less than one for the majority of the coastal counties. Impulse response analysis reveals indeed shocks to the deseasonalized time series, either foreign tourist arrivals or foreign tourist overnight stays, appear short-lived with the exception of Istria and Primorje-Gorski kotar counties. Policy implications of the results are also discussed.     

Evaluating the impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act’s BTOP on broadband adoption

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act’s Broadband Technology Opportunities Program (BTOP) spent $4.7 billion during 2009–2013 to, inter alia, increase broadband adoption in underserved communities. We characterize the BTOP grants and examine the impact of the awards on broadband adoption. Econometric specifications controlling for award endogeneity related to observed and unobserved county-level factors find that spending is apparently associated with increased broadband adoption. Further investigation, however, reveals that the impacts of spending are nonlinear and even nonmonotonic over the range of county-level BTOP spending in the data. Controlling for trends to reduce the potential for spurious correlation between spending and outcomes removes most of the significance of the results. We conclude with three lessons for policymakers derived from the uncertain outcomes of BTOP spending found in our exploration.     

How does FDI affect domestic firms’ wages? theory and evidence from Vietnam

This paper explores the role of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) as a determinant of domestic firms’ wages, namely wage spillovers. We first construct a theoretical model to demonstrate that the presence of FDI firms affects domestic firms’ expected average wages via productivity spillovers and a cut-off capability. We then estimate FDI-induced wage spillovers by employing IV-GMM estimator with a five-year panel dataset of a growing service industry in Vietnam. Despite FDI firms on average pay 2.25 times that of domestic firms, they put a downward pressure on domestic firms’ wages. A one percent increase in FDI presence causes domestic firms to cut average wages by 2.03 percent. The estimations also find that firm-specific features are attributable to significant differences in their wages as well as FDI-linked wage spillovers.     

Forecasting livestock prices with individual and composite methods

We investigate the incentives of private firms to adopt new technologies. Econometric investigation is performed on a pooled sample of individual US airline firms over the period 1971 to 1986 for which extensive information on available jet aircraft technology and fleet choice have been recorded. Given the incidence of successive commercial aircraft innovations and variation in production attributes across firms, we are able to consider a wider array of ‘time-dependent’ and ‘time-independent’ adoption influences than in previous firm-level studies. To the extent that our study provides useful general insights into adoption decisions by firms, the results have implications for US global competitiveness policy. One key finding is that firms subject to increased product market competition exhibit a higher propensity to adopt technological innovations.     

The treatment of uncertainty in the application of rational expectations to the analysis of economic policy

This study uses a familiar set of variables to characterize the determinants of training (based around individual characteristics, qualifications, and workplace characteristics). However, it goes further by using data drawn from a recent quarter of the UK Labour Force Survey, and thus contains an up-to-date and extensive set of core variables. The dependent variable used covers three subgroups: those who have never been offered training by their current employer; those who have been offered but did not receive training in the last three months; and those workers who received training within the last three months. The hypothesis that large employers not only provide more work-related training, but that they are also more willing to train workers with characteristics that indicate a lower probability of obtaining a return on any investment outlay, is tested. This was confirmed (especially for male workers), along with a range of results that mostly accord with previous studies into the determinants of UK employer-based training.     

Guidelines For Pre-College Economics Education: A Critique

While economists of all persuasions undoubtedly agree that universal economic literacy would be desirable, there appears to be substantial disagreement over what economic literacy is, what problems most need to be addressed, and how they can best be solved. These differences are clearly reflected in their diverse views as to what the goals should be for teaching economics in secondary schools. This paper specifically examines the recommendations offered in a paper on economic content standards by leaders of the economic education movement in the U.S. and finds them seriously wanting.     

Catch-up strategies and the latecomer effect in industrial development

Since 2003, the West and Central African (WCA) cotton initiative in the World Trade Organization has stood as an ambitious case of Africa's desire to be integrated into the trading system and yet also receive reparations for past injuries. This article seeks to explore how and why the initiative debuted through close attention to the interdependence between power and language in diplomatic practice. It takes the concept of cognitive framing to explore the relationship between political legitimacy and mobilisation capacities. The genesis of cotton as ‘an issue’ is critically examined, focusing on how the WCA countries constructed a novel ‘competitive victim’ frame to define themselves and the problem. While this opening move was effective, it also featured tensions that were exploited by Northern actors who were threatened by the campaign. I argue that what followed was the introduction of a politically driven ‘counterframe’, which divided the problem into a ‘trade-related’ component and a ‘development-related’ component. It is important to understand why and how this distinction was constructed and monitored. By scrutinising the relationship between framing and institutional power, I suggest that the counterframe won over the original frame, leading to a re-positioning of the demanders and a re-calibration of their expectations.     

An economic evaluation attached to a single-centre,parallel group,unmasked, randomized controlled trial of a 3-day intensive social cognitive treatment (can do treatment) in patients with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis and low disability

Abstract

Aims: This trial-based economic evaluation (EE) assesses from a societal perspective the cost-effectiveness of an intensive 3-day cognitive theory-based intervention (CDT), compared to care-as-usual, in patients with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) and low disability (Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDDS] score < 4.0).

Materials and methods: The trial of the EE was registered in the Dutch Trial Register: Trial NL5158 (NTR5298). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was expressed in cost on the Control sub-scale of the Multiple Sclerosis Self-Efficacy Scale (MSSES) and the incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) in the cost per Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALY) using the EQ-5D-5L. Bootstrap, sensitivity, and sub-group analyses were performed to determine the robustness of the findings.

Results: The two groups of 79 patients were similar in baseline characteristics. The base case ICER is situated in the northeast quadrant (€72 (40.74/€2,948)) due to a higher MSSES Control score and higher societal costs in the CDT group. The ICUR is situated in the northwest (inferior) quadrant due to losses in QALY and higher societal costs for the CDT group (?0.02/€2,948). Overall, bootstrap, sensitivity, and sub-group analyses confirm the base case findings. However, when the SF-6D is used as a study outcome, there is a high probability that the ICUR is situated in the northeast quadrant.

Limitations: The relative short follow-up time (6?months) and the unexpected increase in MSSES Control in the control group.

Conclusions: When using the EQ-5D-5L to calculate a QALY, CDT is not a cost-effective alternative in comparison to care as usual. However, when using self-efficacy or SF-6D as outcomes, there is a probability that CDT is cost-effective. Based on the current results, CDT for patients with RRMS clearly show its potential. However, an extended follow-up for the economic evaluation is warranted before a final decision on implementation can be made.