Exchange rate volatility and bilateral exports of Malaysia to Singapore,China, Japan,the USA and Korea

This study examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on bilateral exports of Malaysia to Singapore, China, Japan, the USA and Korea. Exchange rate volatility is estimated by an autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model. The Johansen cointegration method and the dynamic ordinary least squares estimator are used in the estimations. There is some evidence of exchange rate volatility to have significant impact on real total exports in the long run, but more evidence of exchange rate volatility is found to have significant impact on sub-categories of real total exports in the short run. The impact of exchange rate volatility differs across bilateral exports. The impact of exchange rate volatility on exports can be negative or positive. Generally, exchange rate volatility is not harmful to bilateral exports of Malaysia.     

Direct Investment Liberalization,Commodity Trade and Income Distribution: What Can the WTO do?

This paper analyzes a model of two-way movement of physical capital, and examines the effects of direct investment liberalization on resource allocation, income distribution and commodity trade. If either country or both countries liberalizes investment under exogenously given commodity prices, some factor owners in a country will gain but some others will lose. If capital movement affects commodity prices, all factor owners in a country may be better off after multilateral investment liberalization. In these cases, it will be much easier for the home country to sign an agreement liberalizing investment flows.     

Contagion or Inductance? Crisis 1997 Reconsidered

We provide the simple example of a refinancing game with incomplete information, where the lack of transparency is both necessary and sufficient for the propagation of local financial distress across disjoint financial networks. JEL Classification Number: F4.
And the truth shall make you free. John 8: 32     

澳大利亚个人理财业的发展与启示

20世纪80年代以来,个人理财业的迅速扩张使得澳大利亚个人理财业发生了根本的变化.与澳大利亚相比,中国个人理财业正处于早期形成阶段,加强理财的教育培训,构建合理的理财经营模式,进行严格的金融监管对个人理财业健康发展十分重要.     

Information acquisition, dissemination, and transparency of monetary policy

Abstract.  This paper examines the role of transparency in a benevolent monetary authority's policies. Each firm's payoff depends on unobservable macroeconomic conditions and firms may incur a cost to acquire private information about macroeconomic conditions. The policy authority attempts to infer the underlying macroeconomic conditions from a noisy measure of aggregate actions and makes a public announcement to inform firms of this inference. High-quality announcements provide firms the incentive not to gather private information and base actions solely on information contained in policy announcements. However, this makes the observed actions of firms less informative to the policy authority.     

Hong Kong Output Dynamics: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract. Advanced statistical techniques are used to analyze Hong Kong output dynamics. Hong Kong, Japan and the US are found to share some common long‐term and short‐term cyclical variations. While the Hong Kong economy is susceptible to external shocks and Granger‐caused by the other two economies, local factors account for a large proportion of output growth variability and uncertainty. On the transmission mechanism, the selected trade and financial variables have incremental explanatory power but do not lessen the ability of lagged output variables to explain Hong Kong growth dynamics. Interestingly, the US does not appear to exert undue influences on Hong Kong.     

浴在奢华里

手拿上好的葡萄美酒,耳边环绕优雅的古典音乐,坐在结合高科技产品、有贵重金属镶嵌的浴盆中,墙上水晶灯发出迷醉的光芒,原来沐浴也可以这样奢侈。     

Management training in small and medium-sized enterprises: methodological and conceptual issues

The paper examines the impact of management training and development on the organisation and performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), via a variety of quantitative and qualitative research techniques and including both crosssectional and longitudinal approaches to analysis. The paper demonstrates the value of management training and development in SMEs and demonstrates a series of one-off and longer lasting effects on their organization and performance. The paper also highlights the conditions under which management development projects are likely to be more successful. Finally, the paper extends the schema developed by Arthur and Hendry (1990) and Hendry et al. (1991), indicating the factors influencing training within businesses, and shows the indirect and complex links between management training and firm performance.     

The economics of shortage and problems of reform in Chinese industry

This paper employs the economics of shortage framework to examine post-Mao reforms in Chinese state-owned industry. Performance has been disappointing because reforms through 1985 failed to fundamentally alter economic agent behavior. The “soft” budget constraints at the enterprise and local government levels continue to generate “quantity” and “expansion” drives. The resultant inflationary pressures have necessitated administrative interventions and thwarted reform progress. The Maoist legacy of active participation by local governments in economic management is high-lighted as a major obstacle to the elimination of paternalism in state-enterprise relations.