Wegweiser für die „Bali-Roadmap“

Am 15. Dezember 2007 endete die UN-Klimakonferenz in Bali mit einer so genannten Roadmap, die den Fahrplan der Klimaverhandlungen bis zur n?chsten Klimakonferenz 2009 in Kopenhagen vorgibt. In welchen Politikbereichen lassen sich innerhalb dieses Fahrplans Synergien nutzen? Welche Verhandlungsstrategien führen zu den besten Ergebnissen für die globale Klimapolitik? Dr. Andreas L?schel, 36, ist Leiter des Forschungsbereichs „Umwelt- und Ressourcen?konomik, Umweltmanagement“ am Zentrum für Europ?ische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) in Mannheim; Dr. Ulf Moslener, 35, Dr. Klaus Rennings, 44, und Dr. Bodo Sturm, 35, sind dort wissenschaftliche Mitarbeiter.     

A challenge for the G20: Global debt brakes and transnational fiscal supervisory councils

Debt-to-GDP ratios have grown to unprecedented levels in many industrialised economies. To combat this threat, the authors call for a global debt brake following the Swiss or German example. The debt brakes should be incorporated into national constitutions and monitored by independent transnational fiscal councils, which should conduct regular evaluations of national budget plans in order to ensure that they meet the requirements stipulated by the debt brake.     

Kooperation ohne Grenzen? — Schleswig-Holstein und Hamburg im globalen Wettbewerb

Zusammenfassung  Hamburg und Schleswig-Holstein müssen sich dem globalen Wettbewerb stellen. Sie k?nnten ihre Ausgangsposition verbessern, wenn sie ihre Kr?fte bündelten. Wo liegen die St?rken und Schw?chen der beiden L?nder? Welche gemeinsamen Interessen sollten sie verfolgen? Welche Rolle spielen dabei Infrastrukturprojekte? Was l?sst sich politisch durchsetzen? Dr. Klaus Schrader, 46, ist Stellvertretender Leiter des Zentrums „Wirtschaftspolitik” am Institut für Weltwirtschaft in Kiel. Dieser Beitrag basiert auf einem Gutachten des Instituts für Weltwirtschaft für die Staatskanzlei des Landes Schleswig-Holstein, vgl. K. Schrader et al.: Neue Wege der Kooperation — Schleswig-Holstein und Hamburg in einer gemeinsamen Wirtschaftsregion, Kiel 2008.     

Steep increase in oil prices as gulf crisis lingers on

Following a brief interruption, the recovery in world commodity prices witnessed during the first months of the year has continued. Crude oil prices reached their highest level for 16 months. The increase in prices for industrial raw materials that began early this year, however, came to a complete standstill. With the world economy recovering more slowly, can commodity prices be expected to fall again?     

Rohstoffpreise auf Rekordniveau

Etliche Rohstoffpreise sind auf einem historischen Höchststand. Die befürchteten negativen Wachstumswirkungen der höheren Rohstoffkosten scheinen sich jedoch in den Verbraucherländern in Grenzen zu halten, und die Produzenten möchten das höhere Preisniveau erhalten. Werden sie damit Erfolg haben?Klaus Matthies, 58, Dipl.-Volkswirt, ist Mitarbeiter in der Abteilung Internationale Makroökonomie im Hamburgischen Welt-Wirtschafts-Archiv (HWWA) in Hamburg.     

Commodity Prices Recede from Record Highs

Several commodity prices appear to have peaked earlier this year and crude oil prices have even fallen by more than 10 dollars per barrel from their recent all-time high level. Is the worst over for buyers of raw materials or will prices rise again in the coming months?     

Utilising farm-level panel data to estimate climate change impacts and adaptation potentials

We combine farm accounting data with high-resolution meteorological data, and climate scenarios to estimate climate change impacts and adaptation potentials at the farm level. To do so, we adapt the seminal model of Moore and Lobell (2014) who applied panel data econometrics to data aggregated from the farm to the regional (subnational) level. We discuss and empirically investigate the advantages and challenges of applying such models to farm-level data, including issues of endogeneity of explanatory variables, heterogeneity of farm responses to weather shocks, measurement errors in meteorological variables, and aggregation bias. Empirical investigations into these issues reveal that endogeneity due to measurement errors in temperature and precipitation variables, as well as heterogeneous responses of farms toward climate change may be problematic. Moreover, depending on how data are aggregated, results differ substantially compared to farm-level analysis. Based on data from Austria and two climate scenarios (Effective Measures and High Emission) for 2040, we estimate that the profits of farms will decline, on average, by 4.4% (Effective Measures) and 10% (High Emission). Adaptation options help to considerably ameliorate the adverse situation under both scenarios. Our results reinforce the need for mitigation and adaptation to climate change.     

On the Evolution of Investment Strategies and the Kelly Rule--A Darwinian Approach

This paper complements theoretical studies on the Kelly rulein evolutionary finance by studying a Darwinian model of selectionand reproduction in which the diversity of investment strategiesis maintained through genetic programming. We find that investmentstrategies which optimize long-term performance can emerge inmarkets populated by unsophisticated investors. Regardless whetherthe market is complete or incomplete and whether states arei.i.d. or Markov, the Kelly rule is obtained as the asymptoticoutcome. With price-dependent rather than just state-dependentinvestment strategies, the market portfolio plays an importantrole as a protection against severe losses in volatile markets.     

How Sure Can You Be? A Framework for Considering Delivery Uncertainty in Benefit Assessments Based on Stated Preference Methods

The economic valuation of benefits resulting from environmental policies and interventions often assumes that environmental outcomes are certain. In fact, these outcomes are typically uncertain. This article proposes a methodological approach to incorporate delivery uncertainty into benefit estimation based on stated preference methods. In the study design of a choice experiment survey on land‐based climate change mitigation, we explicitly include delivery uncertainty as the risk that a proposed mitigation project fails to deliver emission savings. We find that respondents’ preferences do not change significantly after being confronted with choices that included risk of failure. However, failure risk itself does have an important impact on the preferences for delivering emission reductions. We show that delivery uncertainty can have a large impact on stated preference estimation of benefits of public programmes. This result should condition conclusions drawn from ex‐ante environmental cost‐benefit analyses that make use of such benefit estimates.