Peer Pressure and Incentives

We study the effects of peer pressure on incentives. To this end, we extend a multiagent model with moral hazard and limited liability by introducing a peer pressure function. We show that the optimal incentive for the less productive agent is more high powered than that for the more productive agent in the case with peer pressure. Moreover, in comparison with the case without peer pressure, the optimal incentive for the less productive agent becomes more high powered, while the optimal incentive for the more productive agent becomes less high powered.     

Forecasting Japanese Stock Returns with Financial Ratios and Other Variables

This paper extends the previous analyses of the forecastability of Japanese stock market returns in two directions. First, we carefully construct smoothed market price–earnings ratios and examine their predictive ability. We find that the empirical performance of the price–earnings ratio in forecasting stock returns in Japan is generally weaker than both the price–earnings ratio in comparable US studies and the price dividend ratio. Second, we also examine the performance of several other forecasting variables, including lagged stock returns and interest rates. We find that both variables are useful in predicting aggregate stock returns when using Japanese data. However, while we find that the interest rate variable is useful in early subsamples in this regard, it loses its predictive ability in more recent subsamples. This is because of the extremely limited variability in interest rates associated with operation of the Bank of Japan’s zero interest policy since the late 1990s. In contrast, the importance of lagged returns increases in subsamples starting from the 2000s. Overall, a combination of logged price dividend ratios, lagged stock returns, and interest rates yield the most stable performance when forecasting Japanese stock market returns.     

Intergenerational Wealth Elasticity in Japan

This study estimates the intergenerational wealth elasticity using original Japanese survey data and assesses factors explaining the intergenerational wealth elasticity, such as income, educational level, bequests and preferences. The age‐adjusted elasticity of child wealth with respect to parental wealth ranges from 0.266 to 0.367, and transition matrices indicate that the intergenerational transmission of wealth persists more strongly in the tails of the distributions. The correlation between parent and child wealth mainly stems from income, education and bequests, which jointly constitute 63.9% of the wealth elasticity.     

RATIONAL CONSUMERS*

The life cycle/permanent income hypothesis (LCPIH) entails two postulates: People have rational expectations and people do not have problems with self‐control. If either or both of these postulates do not apply, we cannot obtain a testable implication for the LCPIH. We use Japanese representative panel data that include responses to self‐reported and retrospective questions in order to elicit behavior such as forward‐looking and self‐control problems. We test the rational expectations hypothesis and the LCPIH implication and find that rational consumers do not change their expenditure in response to expected income changes, which we restrict to fit the two LCPIH postulates.     

Who bears the burden of social insurance? Evidence from Japanese health and long-term care insurance data

Using the society-managed health insurance data, which is cross-sectional time-series and covers 1670 health insurance societies for seven years (FY1995–2001), we found for the first time in Japan that the majority of the employers' contribution to health insurance is shifting back onto the employees in the form of wage reduction. On the other hand, we cannot find such evidence for the contribution to long-term care insurance using a two-year (FY2000–2001) panel data set. The difference can be theoretically explained by how employees value the contribution relative to social security benefits they enjoy. J. Japanese Int. Economies 18 (4) (2004) 565–581.     

Who Uses Free Trade Agreements?

The utilization of ASEAN free trade agreements (FTA) is low by international standards. To clarify the reasons for such low utilization, this paper uses unique affiliate‐level data to investigate what kinds of Japanese affiliates in ASEAN are more likely to use an FTA scheme in their exporting. Our findings are as follows. First, the larger the affiliate is, or the more diversified the origins of its procurements, the more likely it is to utilize an FTA scheme in its exporting. Second, affiliates that export actively to countries with higher general tariffs are more likely to use FTA. Third, there are clear differences in FTA utilization depending on affiliates' locations and sectors.     

On the Predictability of Japanese Stock Returns Using Dividend Yield

The aim of this paper is to provide a critical and comprehensive reexamination of empirical evidence on the ability of the dividend yield to predict Japanese stock returns. Our empirical results suggest that in general, the predictability is weak. However, (1) if the bubble economy period (1986–1998), during which dividend yields were persistently lower than the historical average, is excluded from the sample, and (2) if positive autocorrelation in monthly aggregate returns is taken into account, there is some evidence that the log dividend yield is indeed useful in forecasting future stock returns. More specifically, the log dividend yield contributes to predicting monthly stock returns in the sample after 1990 and when lagged stock returns are included simultaneously.     

Using managers' expectations for ex-ante policy evaluation: Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis

Evaluation of the impacts of government policies during an economic crisis is often delayed until the outcomes are realized. Policies can be better guided if they can be evaluated amid a crisis, before the realization of outcomes. This study examines whether survey data on the expectations of small business managers can help evaluate two high-stake subsidies for firms amid the COVID-19 crisis in Japan, namely, Subsidy Program for Sustaining Businesses (SPSB) and Employment Adjustment Subsidy (EAS). We evaluate the accuracy of managers' expectations, estimate the impact of subsidies on the expected firm survival, and compare it with the estimated impact on realized survival. We find that the managers' expectations on their future sales, survival rate, and the possibility of receiving these subsidies predict the realized outcomes, although they were highly pessimistic about their survival rates. We find that the estimated impacts of the SPSB on the expected survival rates have the same sign as the estimated impact on the realized survival rates, but the size is more than twice because of the pessimism on survival. The estimated impacts of the EAS are both insignificant. Therefore, although its impact may be overestimated, managers' expectations are useful for selecting an effective policy.