Technological innovation and real investment booms and busts

We investigate why new, high-risk technologies can attract excessive and often unprofitable investment. We develop an equilibrium model in which rational, risk-averse agents overinvest in a risky technology, possibly to the point that its expected return is negative. Overinvestment results from relative wealth concerns which arise endogenously from the imperfect tradability of future endowments. Competition over future consumption leads to an indirect utility for wealth with “keeping up with the Joneses” properties that can induce herding. Because overinvestment increases with the risk of the technology, our model can explain why new, risky technological innovations may promote investment bubbles.     

Preventives Versus Treatments Redux: Tighter Bounds on Distortions in Innovation Incentives with an Application to the Global Demand for HIV Pharmaceuticals

Kremer and Snyder (Q J Econ 130:1167–1239, 2015) show that demand curves for a preventive and treatment may have different shapes though they target the same disease, biasing the pharmaceutical manufacturer toward developing the lucrative rather than the socially desirable product. This paper tightens the theoretical bounds on the potential deadweight loss from such biases. Using a calibration of the global demand for HIV pharmaceuticals, we demonstrate the dramatically sharper analysis achievable with the new bounds, allowing us to pinpoint potential deadweight loss at 62% of the global gain from curing HIV. We use the calibration to perform policy counterfactuals, assessing welfare effects of government policies such as a subsidy, reference pricing, and price-discrimination ban. The fit of our calibration is good: we find that a hypothetical drug monopolist would price an HIV drug so high that only 4% of the infected population worldwide would purchase, matching actual drug prices and quantities in the early 2000s before subsidies in low-income countries ramped up.     

The linear growth credibility model

Abstract

The investigation of evolutionary models, i.e. models allowing the risk parameter to change in time, has been one of the main topics of research in credibility theory in the last few years. In the present paper a very special (but rather practicable) evolutionary model is defined and recursions for the credibility estimator are stated.     

Ordering,revenue and anchoring in art auctions

We estimate the effect of ordering by value on revenues in sequential art auctions held by Sotheby's and Christie's. We exploit a pre determined rotation of which of these two houses holds their auction first during auction week in New York City. When the house that goes first has relatively expensive paintings compared to the other house, we find that the sale premium for the week is around 21% higher relative to the mean sale premium, and the fraction of paintings sold during the week is around 11% higher. We provide evidence that this is due to an anchoring effect.     

Inflation and growth: new evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis

We introduce a dynamic panel threshold model to estimate inflation thresholds for long-term economic growth. Advancing on Hansen (J Econom 93:345–368, 1999) and Caner and Hansen (Econom Theory 20:813–843, 2004), our model allows the estimation of threshold effects with panel data even in case of endogenous regressors. The empirical analysis is based on a large panel-dataset including 124 countries. For industrialized countries, our results confirm the inflation targets of about 2% set by many central banks. For non-industrialized countries, we estimate that inflation rates exceeding 17% are associated with lower economic growth. Below this threshold, however, the correlation remains insignificant.     

Belastung der Kapitalgesellschaften nach der Unternehmensteuerreform 2008

Mit der Unternehmensteuerreform 2008 wird die tarifliche Belastung von Kapitalgesellschaften deutlich gesenkt. Dem stehen jedoch Mehrbelastungen durch die Ma?nahmen zur Gegenfinanzierung und insbesondere die Abschaffung der degressiven Abschreibung gegenüber. Wie wirkt sich dies insgesamt auf die Investitionsbedingungen für Kapitalgesellschaften aus? Welche Rolle spielt dabei die Einführung einer Abgeltungsteuer auf private Kapitaleinkünfte? Dr. Jana Kremer, 35, ist Mitarbeiterin in der Volkswirtschaftlichen Abteilung der Deutschen Bundesbank in Frankfurt. Sie gibt in diesem Beitrag ihre pers?nliche Meinung wieder. Dr. Martin Ruf, 35, Dipl.-Kaufmann, ist Mitarbeiter am Lehrstuhl für Allgemeine Betriebswirtschaftslehre und Betriebswirtschaftliche Steuerlehre an der Universit?t Mannheim.     

Altered Common Stock Offerings

This study examines share price behavior when firms alter the size of their primary common stock offerings subsequent to the announcement date. The empirical evidence supports the theory that, given asymmetric information between management and investors, equity issuance is a function of prior stock returns. Average prediction errors in the announcement and postannouncement intervals, taken together or separately, have relative magnitudes that may be logically related to subsequent management decisions concerning these issues. Logistic regressions document significant relationships between the announcement and postannouncement excess returns and managerial decisions.     

Konjunkturschlaglicht: Ergebnis der Steuerschätzung

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Konjunkturschlaglicht: Ergebnis der Steuersch?tzung     

Envy-freeness and implementation in large economies

We show that an asymptotic envy-freeness condition is necessary for a form of robust approximate implementation in large economies. In settings where allocations are excludable, asymptotic envy-freeness is also sufficient for implementation, while in non-excludable settings it is not sufficient.