Further evidence on alternative theories of inflation and unemployment:the Scandination countries

The objective of this study is to estimate the inflation and unemployment models of various of macroeconomics as suggested by Sargent, Stein and Rea, and to test the validity of their propositions using the data of four Scandinavian countries, namely Denmark, Finland Norway and Sweden. The results provide some support for the new classical models on unemployment, but the monetory variables, as monetarists argue, have a significant effect on unemployment. With regard to inflation, the data of the Scandinavian countries do not support the monetarist proposition that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. However, the results support Keynesian propositions that economic slack represented by unemployment is important in explaining the rate of inflation.     

Interest rate policy,effective demand,and growth in LDCs

Orthodox criticisms of ‘financial repression’ in LDCs argue that interest rate liberalization promotes investment and economic growth by increasing the supply of bank credit and improving the efficiency of credit allocation. The present paper develops a Kaleckian model in which increases in deposit interest rates may lower investment and growth by placing downward pressure on effective demand – even if interest rate liberalization results in decreased borrowing costs. The focus of the Kaleckian model on effective demand issues is then contrasted with prior criticisms of the proliberalization view. Finally, the relevance of the Kaleckian approach is demonstrated in connection with the important role of effective demand and distributional effects in the failure of the Chilean financial liberalization to promote a stable growth of output and investment.     

On competition and endogenous firm efficiency

Summary. Conventional wisdom holds that product market competition disciplines firms into efficiency of operation. However, in a well known paper, Martin (1993) has shown that in a linear Cournot setting (with costs determined first and product market competition taking place in a second stage) the exact opposite obtains – a larger number of firms competing in the market implies lower firm efficiency. The note clarifies further the links between market structure and efficiency. Specifically, it argues why (and how) the result derived by Martin (1993) depends upon the assumptions made regarding the structure of demand and nature of conjectures held by firms as to their rivals' behavior. An illustrative counter-example (with Bertrand behavior and non-linear demand) in which entry increases efficiency is provided as well. Received: March 2, 2000; revised version: September 19, 2000     

CHANGES IN CANADIAN FAMILY INCOME AND FAMILY CONSUMPTION INEQUALITY BETWEEN 1978 AND 1992

This paper uses Canadian cross-sectional income and expenditure data to examine changes in the distribution of family income and family consumption during the period 1978 to 1992. Family consumption data are analyzed because in the presence of intertemporal consumption smoothing, the cross-sectional distribution of consumption may characterize the distribution of lifetime wealth. I find that both Canadian family income inequality and Canadian family consumption inequality moved countercyclically. In addition, both Canadian family income inequality and Canadian family consumption inequality trended upward over the period; however, the change in family consumption inequality was much smaller than the change in family income inequality, suggesting that inequality in the distribution of lifetime wealth may have changed much less than is suggested by changes in the distribution of income.     

Modeling domestic holiday tourism demand in Australia: Problems and solutions

An econometric model is very useful for understanding the underlying relationship between tourism demand and economic variables such as income and travel prices. However, a long time series horizon of data is essential to run an econometric model that is consistent with economic theory. Although time series data on the number of domestic trips and visitor nights in Australia are available since 1978–79, breaks in the time series in different years have made it difficult to estimate a domestic holiday demand model. It is because the data series in different periods are not directly comparable. In this study, a simple data adjustment technique has been used to obtain comparable data series. Among several econometric demand models, a single equation multivariate time series demand model in a double log linear functional form was found to be the most appropriate and practical model to estimate and analyze the demand parameters of domestic holiday travel in Australia. However, the model with variables in level terms was observed having the “spurious regression problem” which has been corrected using the cointegration and error correction mechanisms. The estimated income and price elasticity of domestic holiday travel demand are consistent with economic theory and therefore can be used for forecasting and other purposes.     

Employment Flexibility,Dual Labour Markets,Growth, and Distribution

Many policymakers and economists have argued in favour of greater labour market flexibility as a part of structural adjustment reforms that are expected to improve economic performance. Existing post‐Keynesian‐Kaleckian (PKK) models are unable to address these issues because they assume away long‐term labour by allowing employment to be short term and adjusting freely with output. This paper introduces long‐term labour into PKK models. We develop a model that provides alternative ways of modelling labour market flexibility and suggest that when aggregate demand issues are important, an increase in employment flexibility is likely to have adverse growth and distributional impacts.     

Apparent Gains,Hidden Costs: Examining Adoption Drivers,Yield, and Profitability Outcomes of Rotavator Tillage in Wheat Systems in Nepal

The ‘high speed’ rotavator is used for shallow tillage to create a fine tilth and incorporate crop residues, often with a single tractor pass. Rotavator tillage has spread quickly in many parts of South Asia, despite short-term experimental trials suggesting deteriorating soil quality and crop yield penalties. Evidence of rotavator impacts on farmer fields across soil gradients and time is largely absent. From a farm household survey conducted among wheat farmers in Nepal, we estimate wheat yield and profitability outcomes for rotavator adopters and non-adopters using propensity score matching. We find that rotavator adoption leads to inferior outcomes, despite significant cost savings for land preparation (US$ 11–15 per hectare). With rotavator adoption, farmers lose about 284–309 kg of wheat grain and about US$ 93–101 of profits on average per hectare per season, and these penalties increase with longer-term use of the technology. Adoption of rotavator appears to be driven by the cost and time savings for land preparation. Against this backdrop, new policy and extension efforts are required that discourage rotavator use and favour more sustainable tillage technologies.     

Do trade policy differences induce sorting? Theory and evidence from Bangladeshi apparel exporters

This paper provides a new heterogeneous firm model for trade where firms differ in their productivity and experience different market demand shocks. The model incorporates the variations in trade policy, trade preferences, and the rules of origin needed to obtain them that are faced by Bangladeshi garment exporters to the US and EU. We estimate firm's productivity using an extension of the Olley Pakes procedure that accounts for the biases arising from both demand shocks and productivity being unobserved. Predictions of the model are then tested non-parametrically and are shown to be supported empirically.     

A meta-analysis of the impact of price presentation on perceived savings

Pricing is one of the most crucial determinants of sales. Besides the actual price, how the price offering is presented to consumers also affects consumer evaluation of the product offering. Many studies focus on “price framing,” i.e., how the offer is communicated to the consumer —is the offered price given along with a reference price, is the reference price plausible, is a price deal communicated in dollar or percentage terms. Other studies focus on “situational effects,” e.g., is the evaluation for a national brand or a private brand, is it within a discount store or a specialty store. In this article, a meta-analysis of 20 published articles in marketing examines the effects of price frames and situations on perceived savings. The results reveal many features that significantly influence perceived savings. For instance, while both the percent of deal and the amount of deal positively influence perceived deal savings, deal percent has more impact. Further, the presence of a regular price as an external reference price enhances the offer value of large plausible deal and implausible deals, but not of small plausible deals. Thus, high value deals should announce the regular price, but not low value deals. Overall, the results have several useful insights for designing promotions.