Willingness to Pay and QALYs: What Can We Learn about Valuing Foodborne Risk?

This paper examines the value of reducing foodborne risk. Previous research on the valuation of health risk has been dominated by the study of mortality risk. However, in most cases foodborne illnesses are non‐fatal, so we focus on individuals' preferences for reducing morbidity risk, while also including a realistic, if remote, chance of death. We use a contingent valuation method on a Swedish sample and we estimate a value of a statistical illness consistent with previous findings in the literature. We also examine how willingness to pay (WTP) varies with the expected change in quality‐adjusted life years (QALYs) and estimate the WTP per QALY. We find that WTP increases with, though less than proportionally to, a change in QALYs. However, our results also suggest that respondents may have found it difficult to evaluate compound risks of both morbidity and mortality simultaneously.     

Do Shareholders Vote Strategically? Voting Behavior, Proposal Screening, and Majority Rules

We analyze how shareholders screen management proposals at annualgeneral meetings. First, we use a simple model of strategicvoting to develop a theoretical benchmark of effective informationaggregation through voting. Then, we derive testable implicationsand provide structural estimates of the model parameters. Themain conclusions are that shareholders vote strategically andthat proposal screening increases value. Shareholders largelyneutralize the lock-in effect of supermajority rules, therebypreventing the incorrect rejection of proposals.     

Cash flows and policyholder behaviour in the semi-Markov life insurance setup

Within the setup of a semi-Markov process in a finite state space, we consider a life insurance contract. First, without the modelling of policyholder behaviour, we show how to calculate the expected cash flow associated with future payments, and to that end we present a version of Kolmogorov’s forward integro-differential equation. The semi-Markov model is then extended to include modelling of surrender and free policy behaviour, and the main result is a modification of Kolmogorov’s forward integro-differential equation, such that the cash flow can be calculated without significantly more complexity than the cash flow without policyholder modelling. The result is also demonstrated for the traditional Markov case where there is no duration dependence, and numerical examples are studied.     

Willingness to Pay and Sensitivity to Time Framing: A Theoretical Analysis and an Application on Car Safety

Stated preference (SP) surveys attempt to obtain monetary values for non-market goods that reflect individuals’ “true” preferences. Numerous empirical studies suggest that monetary values from SP studies are sensitive to survey design and so may not reflect respondents’ true preferences. This study examines the effect of time framing on respondents’ willingness to pay (WTP) for car safety. We explore how WTP per unit risk reduction depends on the time period over which respondents pay and face reduced risk in a theoretical model and by using data from a Swedish contingent valuation survey. Our theoretical model predicts the effect to be nontrivial in many scenarios used in empirical applications. In our empirical analysis we examine the sensitivity of WTP to an annual and a monthly scenario. Our theoretical model predicts the effect from the time framing to be negligible, but the empirical estimates from the annual scenario are about 70 % higher than estimates from the monthly scenario.     

Which Central and Eastern European country has the greatest potential for housing market recovery？

This paper is concentrated on analyzing the CEE （Central and Eastern European） countries housing and lending market development in 2002-2009. These countries experienced real estate boom and bust phases during that time and the aim of this paper is to understand which of these countries have the greatest potential for housing market recovery. The study has conducted comparable analysis of these countries and their real estate and lending market. The data was collected from central banks, national statistic offices and real estate companies. The results suggest that countries with higher housing debt had stronger real estate booms and the current bust-cycle has caused much steeper decline in prices. This paper attempts to look at the CEE housing markets from the developer＇s or investor＇s point of view and may be useful for banks and other financial institutions which are related to housing market and lending.     

Testing Stationarity in Small‐ and Medium‐Sized Samples when Disturbances are Serially Correlated*

In this article, we study the size distortions of the KPSS test for stationarity when serial correlation is present and samples are small‐ and medium‐sized. It is argued that two distinct sources of the size distortions can be identified. The first source is the finite‐sample distribution of the long‐run variance estimator used in the KPSS test, while the second source of the size distortions is the serial correlation not captured by the long‐run variance estimator because of a too narrow choice of truncation lag parameter. When the relative importance of the two sources is studied, it is found that the size of the KPSS test can be reasonably well controlled if the finite‐sample distribution of the KPSS test statistic, conditional on the time‐series dimension and the truncation lag parameter, is used. Hence, finite‐sample critical values, which can be applied to reduce the size distortions of the KPSS test, are supplied. When the power of the test is studied, it is found that the price paid for the increased size control is a lower raw power against a non‐stationary alternative hypothesis.     

ZERO CONSISTENCY: A CRITIQUE OF CARITAS EUROPA'S ‘ZERO POVERTY’ CAMPAIGN

It is difficult to see what the Caritas ‘Zero Poverty’ campaign stands for and what its purpose is. It mixes poverty definitions and policy areas which have nothing to do with one another, displays ‘moral outrage’ with much ostentation, and calls for bigger government all the time. Caritas should have drawn on their vast practical expertise instead of attempting to appear fashionable.     

Models of Quality‐Adjusted Life Years when Health Varies Over Time: Survey and Analysis

Abstract.  Quality‐adjusted life year (QALY) models are widely used for economic evaluation in the health care sector. In the first part of the paper, we establish an overview of QALY models where health varies over time and provide a theoretical analysis of model identification and parameter estimation from time trade‐off (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) scores. We investigate deterministic and probabilistic models and consider five different families of discounting functions in all. The second part of the paper discusses four issues recurrently debated in the literature. This discussion includes questioning the SG method as the gold standard for estimation of the health state index, re‐examining the role of the constant‐proportional trade‐off condition, revisiting the problem of double discounting of QALYs, and suggesting that it is not a matter of choosing between TTO and SG procedures as the combination of these two can be used to disentangle risk aversion from discounting. We find that caution must be taken when drawing conclusions from models with chronic health states to situations where health varies over time. One notable difference is that in the former case, risk aversion may be indistinguishable from discounting.