Dynamic Spanning in the Consumption-Based Capital Asset Pricing Model

Under the assumptions of the Consumption-based Capital AssetPricing Model (CCAPM), Pareto optimal consumption allocationsare characterized by each agent's consumption process beingadapted to the filtration generated by the aggregate consumptionprocess of the economy. The wealth processes of the agents,however, are adapted to the finer filtration generated by aggregateconsumption and the conditional distribution of future aggregateconsumption. Therefore, in order to achieve pareto optimal consumptionallocations, a sufficiently varied set of assets must existsuch that any wealth process adapted to this finer filtrationcan be implemented by dynamically trading in that set of assets.We provide sufficient conditions for the existence of such aset of assets based on dynamically trading contingent claimson aggregate consumption. In addition, we give sufficient conditionsfor the existence of equilibria in a dynamically effectivelycomplete market in which agents are only able to trade in contingentclaims on aggregate consumption, the market portfolio of firms,and a (numeraire) zero-coupon bond. We demonstrate the roleof short- and long-term contingent claims on aggregate consumptionfor the implementation of Pareto optimal allocations inthe presenceof short- and long-term risks. In addition, in the presenceof personal risks, we demonstrate the role of insurance contracts.JEL Classification: G13.     

Overtourism,optimisation, and destination performance indicators: a case study of activities in Fjord Norway

Abstract

Many global tourist destinations have experienced growth in arrivals. This has triggered various conflicts in destinations and sparked debates as to how to deal with what is increasingly referred to as ‘overtourism’. Most Destination Marketing Organisations (DMOs) pursue strategies to stimulate arrivals even further. Pro-growth discourses are reinforced by lead bodies such as the World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO). However, maximisation strategies based on higher numbers of tourists increasingly cause conflicts with local residents, whereas simultaneously undermining climate change mitigation pledges as negotiated in the Paris Agreement. New approaches to destination management based on optimisation are therefore warranted. Drawing on a survey of international tourists (n?=?5,249) in south-western Norway, this article discusses whether ‘activities’, i.e. the development of local, small-scale and ideally more sustainable experiences, can contribute to economic growth without necessarily increasing numbers of arrivals. Results confirm that destinations should seek to better understand their markets, including length of stay, spending, and/or activity intention, to identify profitable markets. Ultimately, such knowledge may help addressing overtourism conflicts while building tourism systems that are more economically, socially, and environmentally resilient.     

Globalization and individual gains from trade

We analyze the impact of globalization on individual gains from trade in a general equilibrium model of monopolistic competition featuring product diversity, pro-competitive effects and income heterogeneity between and within countries. Although trade reduces markups in both countries in our framework, its impact on variety depends on their relative position in the world income distribution: product diversity in the lower income country always expands, while that in the higher income country may shrink. When the latter occurs, the richer consumers in the higher income country may lose from trade because the relative importance of variety versus quantity increases with income. Using data on GDP per capita and population, as well as on the U.S. income distribution, our theoretical results are illustrated in two different contexts: the hypothetical bilateral trade liberalization between the U.S. and 188 countries; and the historical sequence of U.S. free trade agreements since 1985.     

Debriefing to learn from extreme events: the case of Utøya

The objective of this study was to discover potential ways to enhance debriefing so that more can be learned from the experience of extreme events. In order to reach this aim, we explored how personnel in the Explosive Ordnance Disposal team from the Norwegian Armed Forces experienced debriefing after an extreme event. That event was a terror attack on the Norwegian island of Utøya on 22 July, 2011, in which 69 people were killed and 66 were wounded. An Explosive Ordnance Disposal team was sent to the island to search for and disarm potential bombs. We explored how personnel in the team experienced their debriefing after this event. Reports of interviewees' experiences identified two relevant dimensions: content (technical and personal) and form (formal and informal), leading to the development of four categories. The main learning points were that although personnel experienced room to share technical issues during debriefing and hence learn from the situation, there were fewer opportunities to share personal issues, and this seemed to limit the debriefing as a learning process.     

New No-arbitrage Conditions and the Term Structure of Interest Rate Futures

Interest rate futures are basic securities and at the same time highly liquid traded objects. Despite this observation, most models of the term structure of interest rate assume forward rates as primary elements. The processes of futures prices are therefore endogenously determined in these models. In addition, in these models hedging strategies are based on forward and/or spot contracts and only to a limited extent on futures contracts. Inspired by the market model approach of forward rates by Miltersen, Sandmann, and Sondermann (J Finance 52(1); 409–430, 1997), the starting point of this paper is a model of futures prices. Using, as the input to the model, the prices of futures on interest related assets new no-arbitrage restrictions on the volatility structure are derived. Moreover, these restrictions turn out to prevent an application of a market model based on futures prices.     

Commodity tax harmonization and the location of industry

We study the positive implications of commodity taxation and tax harmonization under the destination and origin principles when firms are monopolistic competitors facing variable demand elasticity and segmented markets. Our emphasis is on the international location of firms in the presence of market size asymmetries and trade costs. Under the destination principle, an increase in the tax rate of a country always causes some firms to relocate to the other. This effect may be reversed under the origin principle when economic integration is deep enough. Under tax harmonization the choice of a common tax principle is irrelevant for the market outcomes and for the global tax revenues. It affects, however, the distribution of revenues between small and large countries.