Calibration Weighting Methods for Complex Surveys

This paper presents a careful investigation of the three popular calibration weighting methods: (i) generalised regression; (ii) generalised exponential tilting and (iii) generalised pseudo empirical likelihood, with a major focus on computational aspects of the methods and some empirical evidences on calibrated weights. We also propose a simple weight trimming method for range‐restricted calibration. The finite sample behaviour of the weights obtained by the three calibration weighting methods and the effectiveness of the proposed weight trimming method are examined through limited simulation studies.     

Of Course We Can Bootstrap DEA Scores! But Does It Mean Anything? Logic Trumps Wishful Thinking

Journal of Productivity Analysis -     

中国"以电子政务拉动信息产业发展"政策的再评估

电子政务是中国信息化战略的重中之重,但其实际发展与预期间存在着明显差距。本文以中国“以电子政务拉动信息产业发展”政策为研究重点,把这一政策放在中国信息化历史中加以考察,分析中国信息化新阶段ICT市场的新变化和新挑战,针对电子政务实践与预期间的差距,对该政策提出我们的看法。     

League Structure and Match Attendances in English Rugby League

This paper investigates the effects of actual and hypothetical changes in league structure on match attendances for English rugby league. An empirical match attendance model is used to generate simulated attendances under various alternative structural regimes.The simulations are used to compare the effects on attendances of having larger and smaller divisions, and of having regionalised lower divisions or divisions whose membership is determined solely by playing quality. A limited form of regionalisation emerges as a positive recommendation. The model is also used to decompose the changes in average attendance, following the 1996 reorganisation, into components attributable to the change of structure, changes in team performance, and other factors.     

Convergent cultural evolution and multilevel selection: Reply to comments on Janet Landa’s ‘The bioeconomics of homogenous middleman groups as adaptive units: Theory and empirical evidence viewed from a group selection framework’

The comments on Janet Landa’s (J Bioecon 10(3):259–278, 2008) target article provide a fascinating snapshot of how multilevel selection theory is perceived across several disciplines. When we focus on the zone of agreement among the commentators, Landa’s article provides an important example of convergent cultural evolution. When we focus on the zone of disagreement, we find a snapshot of the current status of the group selection controversy that goes beyond narrow scientific issues and requires a ‘truth and reconciliation’ process to resolve, as discussed in my series of blogs titled “Truth and Reconciliation for Group Selection” (Wilson , 2009) and briefly summarized here.      

The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and the Volatility of Exchange Rates after the Asian Crisis: A Counterfactual Analysis

The objective of this paper is to carry out a counterfactual analysis of the impact of alternative exchange rate regimes on the volatility of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) and the bilateral rate against the US dollar for nine East Asian countries after the Asian financial crisis. Our hypothetical regimes include a unilateral basket peg (UBP), a common basket peg (CBP) and a hard peg against the dollar. We find that a UBP would minimise effective exchange rate volatility for all countries and provides the highest regime gains compared to actual. Although the gains for a CBP are always less than those for a UBP, the absolute differences between the two regimes appear to be small. In terms of the bilateral relationship against the dollar, the gains from a UBP or CBP could be quite significant for the non‐dollar peggers since a fall in effective instability would be accompanied by a fall in bilateral instability.     

Incremental approaches to establishing trust

We investigate cooperation using an incremental investment game in which the first-mover has the ability to make small, but increasing incremental investments in their counterpart. Our experiment is designed to test whether establishing trust in small increments is more effective than alternatives, including a one-shot investment game, a decrease only condition where the amount the first-mover sends to the second-mover must be less than the amount previously sent, and an unrestricted condition where the first-mover is not restricted by the amount previously sent. Although results were mixed, broadly, iteration affords greater cooperation than one-shot games and, when given the choice, participants seem to prefer to build trust gradually. Implications for institutional design are discussed.      

Cointegration, Efficiency and Forecasting in the Currency Market

Existing literature on using the cointegration approach to examine the efficiency of the foreign exchange market gives mixed results. Arguments typically focus on econometric testing techniques, with fractional cointegration being the most current one. This paper tries to look at the issue from an economic perspective. It shows that the cointegrating relationship, whether cointegrated or fractionally cointegrated, is found mainly among the currencies of the European Monetary System which are set to fluctuate within a given range. Hence, there is no inconsistency with the notion of market efficiency. Yet, exploiting such a cointegrating relationship is helpful in currency forecasting. There is some evidence that restricting the forecasting model to consist of only cointegrated currencies improves forecasting efficiency.     

Participation: 'bounded freedom' or hidden constraints on user involvement

User participation in information systems development is often surrounded by assumptions that the resultant system will be a success, will reflect user needs, and that the process results in an empowered workforce. This paper argues that underlying these foreground rational assumptions are instrumental, politically motivated justifications driving the need to involve users.