Using behavioral decision theory to assess advertisement recognition tasks by level of difficulty

Studies on human decision making consistently report that people are overconfident about the accuracy of their judgments in discrete-choice tasks. Based on these studies, hypotheses were made about the accuracy with which consumers can judge their own ability to correctly recognize print advertisements. Results of an experiment conducted at three different levels of involvement indicate that subjects are not very good at assessing the accuracy of their recognition judgments, tending to be overconfident at low levels of involvement and possibly underconfident at higher levels. The meaning and implications of these results for managerial decision making within the field of advertising are discussed. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Volatility in Oilseeds and Vegetable Oils Markets: Drivers and Spillovers

Food price volatility has re‐emerged as an important topic of political discussion since the food price crisis of 2007–2008. Different volatility drivers have been identified for different markets in the theoretical and empirical literature. However, there is no comprehensive analysis that considers a large number of potential drivers and investigates their joint effects in a dynamic model of interrelated markets. Our study provides such a volatility analysis for the oilseeds and vegetable oils markets. We use a common GARCH approach and a VAR model to identify volatility drivers and spillover effects. Our results show that exchange rate volatility is very important. However, the hotly debated financialisation of commodity markets is not found to be volatility increasing in our monthly data. Impulse response functions show strong spillover effects. Because many volatility drivers found to be important in other markets have no significant effect in our study, our results suggest that volatility drivers are market specific. This implies that any volatility‐reducing policies need to be designed for the market in question.     

How Disclosure Features of Corporate Social Responsibility Reports Interact with Investor Numeracy to Influence Investor Judgments

Firms’ Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) reports typically frame their strategies in terms of either community or global efforts (i.e., “strategy frame”). Further, the style used to depict CSR performance in reports often highlights either pictures or words (i.e., “presentation style”). These two prominent disclosure features of CSR reports promote a natural fit or misfit in the focus (relatively low‐level or high‐level focus) investors adopt when thinking about the firm and its CSR efforts. Further, these disclosure features likely have different effects on investors depending on their numeracy or, in other words, the way that they naturally process numerical information. In this study, we predict and find that a fit between the strategy frame and the presentation style of a firm's CSR report causes less numerate investors to be more willing to invest than when a fit is not present. Specifically, we find that a fit leads less numerate investors to experience subjective feelings of processing fluency and, in turn, positive affect that serves as a cue that the positive CSR performance information can be relied upon, which positively influences willingness to invest. Our results have implications for both CSR reports as well as other types of firm disclosures that increasingly vary along similar disclosure characteristics. Our results also contribute to both the growing literature on presentation effects in accounting, as well as the broader business literature on CSR reporting.     

The power of prediction: predictive analytics,workplace complements,and business performance

Anecdotes abound suggesting that the use of predictive analytics boosts firm performance. However, large-scale representative data on this phenomenon have been lacking. Working with the Census Bureau, we surveyed over 30,000 American manufacturing establishments on their use of predictive analytics and detailed workplace characteristics. We find that productivity is significantly higher among plants that use predictive analytics—up to $918,000 higher sales compared to similar competitors. Furthermore, both instrumental variables estimates and the timing of gains suggest a causal relationship. However, we find that the productivity pay-off only occurs when predictive analytics are combined with at least one of three workplace complements: significant accumulation of IT capital, educated workers, or workplaces designed for high flow-efficiency production. Our findings support claims that predictive analytics can substantially boost performance, while also explaining why some firms see no benefits at all.

     

Does Regulation Trade Off Quality against Inequality? The Case of German Architects and Construction Engineers

We exploit an exogenous price increase of 10 per cent for architectural services to answer the question how price regulation affects income inequality and service quality. Using individual‐level data from the German microcensus for the years 2006–2012, we find a significant reform effect of 8 per cent on personal net income for self‐employed architects and construction engineers. This group moved from the second lowest to the highest quintile of the net income distribution. This increase in inequality is associated with a deterioration of service quality. The reform reduced average scores of a peer ranking for architects by 18 per cent.     

Short Selling Pressure,Reporting Transparency,and the Use of Real and Accruals Earnings Management to Meet Benchmarks

Abstract

Prior literature finds that short selling is beneficial to the market because it increases liquidity and helps to discipline optimistic market prices. The authors use 2 controlled experiments to examine the potential for an unintended consequence of allowing short selling or easing short selling restrictions. Because prior research identifies short sellers as sophisticated market participants who have the ability to see through accrual earnings management choices, we predict and find that, when reporting is transparent, managers are more likely to use real earnings management relative to accrual earnings management when short selling restrictions are relaxed. This is consistent with the idea that real earnings management activities are more defensible as the result of legitimate operating decisions and are therefore more likely to hold up to scrutiny from short sellers. Overall, the results suggest that regulations that are unrelated to financial reporting can affect how managers respond to the transparency that arises from financial reporting regulations.     

Passing the “Torches of Freedom”: Smoking Behaviors of Women in Nepal

Globally, men constitute a larger percentage of smokers than women, but the rate of women smokers is growing. Smoking is a feminist issue: there are unique consequences for women's health, well-being, and agency. Recently passed anti-smoking legislation in Nepal, which has the highest rate of women smokers in South Asia, omits gender-conscious recommendations, potentially diminishing the impact of the legislation on women's lives. Relying on the 2001, 2006, and 2011 waves of the Nepal Demographic and Health Survey, this paper expands the dialogue around women's smoking and places it at the forefront of research on women's health issues. The results indicate that for women in Nepal, formal education and visiting a health facility mitigate smoking behaviors, whereas being employed and living in certain regions promotes smoking behaviors. The aim is for this and the ensuing inquiries to change government anti-smoking legislation in order to improve women's health.     

On a multi-threshold compound Poisson surplus process with interest

We consider a multi-threshold compound Poisson surplus process. When the initial surplus is between any two consecutive thresholds, the insurer has the option to choose the respective premium rate and interest rate. Also, the model allows for borrowing the current amount of deficit whenever the surplus falls below zero. Starting from the integro-differential equations satisfied by the Gerber–Shiu function that appear in Yang et al. (2008), we consider exponentially and phase-type(2) distributed claim sizes, in which cases we are able to transform the integro-differential equations into ordinary differential equations. As a result, we obtain explicit expressions for the Gerber–Shiu function.     

Knowledge,profitability and exit of German car manufacturing firms

In this paper, the profitability of German car manufacturing firms is related to different indicators for the knowledge incorporated in the firms since the birth of the industry in 1886. The analysis is performed with an ordered probit model, where information about the mode of exit of the firms is exploited to construct a latent variable for profitability. Knowledge is represented by the number of patents, learning-by-doing and entrepreneurial experience before entry. The results show that knowledge is significantly positively related to firm profitability and that each of the three knowledge forms exerts an independent effect.