Credit scoring for commercial loans: The case of Singapore

This paper develops a credit scoring model which incorporates financial ratios as inputs by applying the statistical technique of discriminant analysis. The objective is to identify and analyse the common financial characteristics which distinguish bad from good accounts. The sample is drawn from the loan portfolio of a major local bank in Singapore. The results indicate that there is a 95 per cent classification accuracy for the model presented.Dr Kwan Kuen Chor is Senior Lecturer at the School of Management, National University of Singapore. Ms Julia Tan is with Paribas South East Asia Ltd. Singapore.     

Entrepreneurial financing in new business ventures: a help-seeking behavior perspective

How and from whom prospective entrepreneurs seek their start-up capital for new venture formation represent fundamental questions in entrepreneurial financing. Drawing on research of help-seeking behavior, we propose that apart from economic rationale entrepreneurs’ decisions to seek financing may be influenced by socio-psychological factors. Using a scenario experiment (venture risk x relational proximity) to investigate how prospective entrepreneurs considered funding from family and outsiders, it was found that they tended to seek family financing when the family was close and the risk was high, and inclined to seek outsider funding when the venture risk was high and the family was not close. The findings might seem paradoxical but they actually underscore the influence of socio-psychological factors in entrepreneurial financing decisions and offer novel contributions to the entrepreneurship, informal investment, and education literatures.     

Structure of distortion equilibria and welfare in a multiregional economy

Summary We consider a convex economy with multiregions, each region facing different specific tax-subsidies. The model reduces to a model of a closed economy with an aggregate production set when there is a single region. It can also represent a model of an international economy through a reinterpretation of variables. We show that there is a unique path of allocations from a distortion equilibrium to the optimum that can be followed by proportionate changes of price distortions. Welfare monotonically increases as one follows the path towards optimum. The information on the structure of equilibria reduces multidimensional comparative statics into a one dimensional problem. The global Newton method of Smale can be used to follow the path in the direction of increasing welfare, allowing us to do comparative statics computationally. Global considerations directly show that, under a sign condition of the Jacobian of a tax function, piecemeal proportional reductions of price distortions improve welfare. A variation of the condition unifies other such conditions in the literature.I would like to thank William Brock, Takashi Fukushima, Tatsuo Hatta, Michael Jerison, Taesung Kim and referees of this Journal who provided me with many constructive comments and references. Previous versions of this paper were presented at the Far Eastern Meeting of the Econometric Society, the Midwestern Mathematical Economics Conference, and the International Conference of Korean Economists. I wish to thank the participants of these conferences for many nice comments. I also wish to thank Bruce Dieffenbach, Thad Mirer and editors of this journal who helped to streamline exposition.     

Housing Tenure Transitions of Older Households: What is the Role of Child Proximity?

This study examines the role of proximity of children to their parents and recent moves of children within a proximate distance in housing tenure transitions of older households. This study is the first to investigate the interplay between health status of older households, moves of their children and a household's decision to make housing tenure transitions. In doing so, we rely on longitudinal household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics with residential location information at the census tract level. The results demonstrate that after controlling for the financial and demographic characteristics of children, living near children reduces the likelihood of making a housing tenure transition for older households, but that the impact of distance is not monotonic with respect to the degree of geographic distances. The results also demonstrate that if a child enters or moves closer to her or his parents’ home, it increases the probability that older households exit homeownership. Finally, we find no evidence that children's moves mitigate the likelihood that their older parents whose health deteriorates become renters.     

Northeast Asian economic regionalism: A Korean view

State failure is more common than generally assumed and often has distinctly negative consequences that may manifest themselves in neighboring countries. For this reason, it has attracted considerable attention in academic and policy circles alike. The researchers exploring the phenomenon have followed a rather narrow path, however, and there is substantial scope to broaden the breadth of inquiry. While the analytical efforts over the past decade to come to grips with the phenomenon of state failure have borne fruit in terms of identifying the key independent variables, the understanding of the mechanism through which they exert their influence on the dependent variable has not been significantly enhanced. The assertion is particularly valid with respect to adverse and abrupt regime transitions. The purpose of this paper is to examine, in light of the author's experience in grappling with state failure in the Chinese context, the potential for systematically expanding the research agenda in a conceptual/theoretical direction.     

On the nature of mean-variance spanning

Asset spanning tests are very useful tools for the determination of which asset classes belong to an investor's portfolio. There are numerous applications of such tools in the finance literature. What is not so obvious is the proper decision an investor should make if the extra asset classes are spanned by some existing assets. Should the investor make a conscious decision not to invest in them as they add no value? Should the investor invest in them anyway as they do no harm? This study provides an analytical solution to the puzzle and also offers an economic rationale.