Pattern Bargaining and Wage Leadership in a Small Open Economy*

Pattern bargaining with the tradables (manufacturing) sector as the wage leader is common in Europe. We question the conventional wisdom that such bargaining produces wage restraint. In our model, all forms of pattern bargaining give the same outcomes as uncoordinated bargaining under inflation targeting. Under a monetary union, wage leadership for the non‐tradables sector is conducive to wage restraint, whereas wage leadership for the tradables sector is not. Comparison thinking might lead the follower to set the same wage as the leader. Such equilibria can arise when the leader sector is the smaller sector, and these can promote high employment.     

The value of multivariate model sophistication: An application to pricing Dow Jones Industrial Average options

We assess the predictive accuracies of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We measure the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses by considering a set of 444 multivariate models that differ in their specification of the conditional variance, conditional correlation, innovation distribution, and estimation approach. All of the models belong to the dynamic conditional correlation class, which is particularly suitable because it allows consistent estimations of the risk neutral dynamics with a manageable amount of computational effort for relatively large scale problems. It turns out that increasing the sophistication in the marginal variance processes (i.e., nonlinearity, asymmetry and component structure) leads to important gains in pricing accuracy. Enriching the model with more complex existing correlation specifications does not improve the performance significantly. Estimating the standard dynamic conditional correlation model by composite likelihood, in order to take into account potential biases in the parameter estimates, generates only slightly better results. To enhance this poor performance of correlation models, we propose a new model that allows for correlation spillovers without too many parameters. This model performs about 60% better than the existing correlation models we consider. Relaxing a Gaussian innovation for a Laplace innovation assumption improves the pricing in a more minor way. In addition to investigating the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses directly, we also use the model confidence set approach to statistically infer the set of models that delivers the best pricing performances.     

A Damage Based Tax Mechanism for Regulation of Non-Point Emissions

In a recent paper Segerson (1988) proposed a novel incentive mechanism for stochastic non-point emissions based on ambient pollution concentrations in nature. For specification of the mechanism when the damage function is nonlinear, the regulator must know polluters cost and emission functions. The mechanism also gives incentives to form coalitions among polluters, which, if they are formed, render the mechanism inefficient. In this paper we propose a revised mechanism which eliminates the need for knowledge of polluters cost and emission functions and reduces the probability of coalition forming. A standards and pricing version of the revised mechanism with both properties mentioned is also developed.     

Risk sensitivity in bargaining with more than two participants

In two-person bargaining over riskless outcomes where the outcome is chosen according to the Nash solution or the Kalai-Smorodinsky solution, an increase in a player's risk aversion is to the advantage of the opponent. It is shown in this note that for the n-person Nash solution, an increase in risk aversion is to the player's own disadvantage but needs not be advantageous to all the opponents. For the n-person Kalai-Smorodinsky solution, the increase is to the player's own disadvantage and to the advantage of all the opponents.     

Can Non-point Phosphorus Emissions from Agriculture be Regulated Efficiently Using Input-Output Taxes?

In many parts of Europe and North America, phosphorus loss from cultivated fields is threatening natural ecosystems. Though there are similarities to other non-point agricultural emissions like nitrogen that have been studied extensively, phosphorus is often characterized by the presence of large stocking capacities for phosphorus in farm soils and long time-lags between applications and emission. This makes it important to understand the dynamics of the phosphorus emission problem when designing regulatory systems. Using a model that reflects these dynamics, we evaluate alternative regulatory systems. Depending on the proportions of different types of farms in the agricultural sector, we find that an input-output tax system can be the core element of a close to efficient regulatory policy.     

Delinquency in the wilderness: patterns of outdoor recreation activities and conduct problems in the general adolescent population

Based on a sample of 5412 Norwegian adolescents, this study identified two patterns of outdoor recreation activities. These patterns were differently related to three patterns of conduct problems that emerged in the same sample. Negative associations were found between an outdoor recreation pattern labelled ‘exercise/appreciation’ and the conduct problem patterns, whereas the associations between a pattern labelled ‘adventurous’ and the conduct problem patterns were found to be positive, although not strong. The paper argues that outdoor recreation is a very heterogenous concept, comprising activities that may take place in diverse social and cultural contexts. Some of these activities may in certain contexts convey meanings resembling those conveyed by some forms of delinquency.     

Budget referendums and government spending: evidence from Swiss cantons

In many Swiss cantons, new government programs must be approved by a referendum of citizens before money can be spent. Referendums seem like a natural way to address citizen-legislator agency problems, yet statistical evidence on how referendums affect spending decisions is almost nonexistent. We estimate regressions for Swiss cantons using panel data from 1980 to 1998 and find that mandatory referendums reduced government spending by 19% for the median canton after controlling for demographics and other determinants of spending.