USING RANDOMIZED CONTROL DESIGNS IN EVALUATING SOCIAL SECTOR PROGRAMS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Seven case studies—from Bolivia, Colombia, Indonesia,Mexico, Nicaragua, Taiwan (China), and Turkey—demonstratethe feasibility of conducting rigorous impact evaluations indeveloping countries using randomized control designs. Thisexperience, covering a wide variety of settings and social programs,offers lessons for task managers and policymakers interestedin evaluating social sector investments. The main conclusions are: first, policymakers interested inassessing the effectiveness of a project ought to consider arandomized control design because such evaluations not onlyare feasible but also yield the most robust results. Second,the acute resource constraints common in developing countriesthat often make program rationing unavoidable also present opportunitiesfor adopting randomized control designs. Policymakers and programmanagers need to be alert to the opportunities for buildingrandomized control designs into development programs right fromthe start of the project cycle because they, more than academicresearchers or evaluation experts, are in the best positionto ensure that opportunities for rigorous evaluations are exploited.      

Do charitable causes need to segment their current donor base on demographic factors?: An Australian examination

Modern charities are facing increasing pressures requiring them to use more effectively a range of marketing activities, and segmentation may be one such tool. The giving literature suggests that the demographic factors of gender and age might serve as appropriate segmentation criteria and this paper examines whether motivations of existing donors vary by age or gender. The results suggest that there may be limited benefits in segmenting existing donors and that charities may be able to use similar promotional strategies for all existing donors. Copyright © 2002 Henry Stewart Publications     

Patient intensity in an ambulatory oncology research center: A step forward for the field of ambulatory care--Part II

Nursing leaders in ambulatory care need to objectively quantify patient intensity to balance patient care needs and nursing resources. In this three-part series, current literature on acuity/intensity tools will be reviewed, and the development of an Ambulatory Intensity System (AIS) to objectively quantify nursing care will be described. In this article, the ongoing implementation of the system, its incorporation into the organization's established computerized appointment system, reliability measures, and related performance improvement activities will be discussed.     

Banks and bubbles: How good are bankers at spotting winners?

This paper examines the bank lending relations of a large sample of technology and nontechnology firms that went public during the 1996–2000 period. We use a unique hand-collected data set to examine the characteristics of firms that establish pre- Initial Public Offering (IPO) bank lending relations and whether post-IPO performance is related to the existence and size of pre-IPO banking relations. We find that the majority of IPO firms have banking relations before they go public. Firms with banking relations are older, more profitable or, in the case of tech firms, have lower losses, and are more likely to have funding from venture capitalists than firms without banking relations. We also find that banks lent aggressively to technology firms in the sense that current earnings and cash flows were significantly less important in determining banking relations for technology firms than for nontechnology firms. Consistent with the importance of so-called soft information in lending decisions, we find that, controlling for ex ante observable risk measures, there is a positive and significant relation between improvements in post-IPO operating performance and the existence and size of pre-IPO banking relations. Overall, our results indicate that firms with the best current and future prospects establish banking relations. Our findings provide an explanation as to why investors could interpret lending relations as a positive signal of firm quality.     

Backtesting extreme value theory models of expected shortfall

We use stock market data to analyze the quality of alternative models and procedures for forecasting expected shortfall (ES) at different significance levels. We compute ES forecasts from conditional models applied to the full distribution of returns as well as from models that focus on tail events using extreme value theory (EVT). We also apply the semiparametric filtered historical simulation (FHS) approach to ES forecasting to obtain 10-day ES forecasts. At the 10-day horizon we combine FHS with EVT. The performance of the different models is assessed using six different ES backtests recently proposed in the literature. Our results suggest that conditional EVT-based models produce more accurate 1-day and 10-day ES forecasts than do non-EVT based models. Under either approach, asymmetric probability distributions for return innovations tend to produce better forecasts. Incorporating EVT in parametric or semiparametric approaches also improves ES forecasting performance. These qualitative results are also valid for the recent crisis period, even though all models then underestimate the level of risk. FHS narrows the range of numerical forecasts obtained from alternative models, thereby reducing model risk. Combining EVT and FHS seems to be best approach for obtaining accurate ES forecasts.     

The challenge of program evaluation: When increasing program participation decreases the relative well-being of participants

Two goals of food assistance programs are to improve well-being and to increase participation among those in need. Progress in meeting the first goal can be measured by the difference in well-being between participants and eligible non-participants. This gap in well-being though can be affected by progress made toward the second goal of increasing participation rates. In particular, if those with the lowest levels of well-being disproportionately enter the program, the gap can increase. To examine whether this tension between goals exists empirically, we consider the case of the Food Stamp Program and its effect on food insecurity in the United States, using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). In particular, we use variation in State policies (the change in administrative error rates and the combined value of Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) and food stamp benefits) to analyze whether increasing participation rates leads to increases in the difference in food insecurity rates. Controlling for other factors, we find evidence of the tension between these two program goals insofar as States with policies which encourage participation have higher differences in the food insecurity rates of participants and non-participants.     

Business,Aging, and Socioemotional Selectivity: A Qualitative Study of Gray Entrepreneurship

This three‐stage qualitative paper explores the motivations and experiences of gray entrepreneurship through age‐related lenses outlined in behavioral psychology literature. In contrast to economic approaches that presuppose financial drivers, findings reveal that intrinsic drivers such as achievement, fulfillment, and relationships had primacy among the participants in this research. Entrepreneurship enabled the older people in this study to construct their social environments in a way that maximizes the potential for positive affect, and minimizes the potential for negative affect, both in and out of work.     

The effect of a tax training program on tax compliance and business outcomes of starting entrepreneurs: Evidence from a field experiment

This paper estimates the long-term impact of a short, partly personalized, mandatory tax training program on tax compliance and business outcomes of first-time entrepreneurs. To this end, we combine survey data, audit data and unique register data from the Netherlands' Tax and Customs Administration with a three year long randomized experiment. The results show that the training affects specific domains of tax compliant behavior. Moreover, it has no impact on business survival, but treated entrepreneurs have significantly higher profits compared to the control group due to lower business costs. These outcomes are partially supportive of our hypotheses developed from theories on tax compliance and mental accounting.     

Do formal contracts and relational governance function as substitutes or complements?

Relational exchange arrangements supported by trust are commonly viewed as substitutes for complex contracts in interorganizational exchanges. Many argue that formal contracts actually undermine trust and thereby encourage the opportunistic behavior they are designed to discourage. In this paper, we develop and test an alternative perspective: that formal contracts and relational governance function as complements. Using data from a sample of information service exchanges, we find empirical support for this proposition of complementarity. Managers appear to couple their increasingly customized contracts with high levels of relational governance (and vice versa). Moreover, this interdependence underlies their ability to generate improvements in exchange performance. Our results concerning the determinants of these governance choices show their distinct origins, which further augments their complementarity in practice. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.