Unobserved Heterogeneity,Job Training and the Employer Size–Wage Effect in Australia

This study attempts to clarify the nature of the employer size–wage effect in Australia by determining the extent to which it can be explained by observed and unobserved quality differences of workers. Our empirical results show that, for men, quality‐adjusted employer size–wage effects are quite small and are mostly driven by lower wages for workers in the smallest firms (fewer than 20 workers). For women, size–wage effects disappear when unobserved quality differences are accounted for. We also find that accounting for differences in the incidence of job training has no effect on the structure of wage differences by employer size.     

The Domestic Politics of Institutional Design: Producer Preferences over Trade Agreement Rules

What explains variation in the design of international institutions? Recent literature shows that providing members with opportunities to shirk their contractual obligations actually promotes agreement formation and durability. Yet, in spite of these benefits, institutions continue to exhibit wide variation in the “flexibility” of their rules. I show that, in the context of preferential trade agreements (PTAs), the benefits of permitting escape are enjoyed unevenly across the market. In particular, import‐competing industries gain from the protection that escape clauses provide while their export‐dependent counterparts bear the costs. This asymmetry creates domestic political competition over agreement design between the two traded sectors of the market. I explore this competition using new data on the design of 330 PTA agreements since 1960.     

Using uncensored communication channels to divert spam traffic

We analyze a simple, feasible improvement to the current email system using an uncensored (open) communication channel. Such a channel could be an email folder or account, to which properly tagged commercial solicitations are routed without filtering along the way. We characterize the circumstances under which senders would voluntarily move much of their spam into the open channel, leaving the traditional email channel dominated by person-to-person mail. We then show that under certain conditions all email recipients are better off when an open channel is introduced. Only recipients wanting spam will use the open channel enjoying the less disguised messages and cheaper sale prices, and for all recipients the dissatisfaction associated with both undesirable mail received and desirable mail filtered out decreases.     

Does Monetary Policy Respond to Uncertainty? Evidence from Australia

We construct a novel measure of uncertainty using expert monetary policy recommendation data for Australia. Our results suggest that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tends to lower the cash rate when expert uncertainty is high. This result is robust to using other uncertainty measures.     

Chinese economy in the new era

The “new era”, a term introduced by President Xi Jinping, may also be identified as the Xi era, during which China will be transformed from a moderately well‐off to a strong and wealthy nation. In the new era, the Chinese Government will deepen economic reform, widen economic opening and enhance the quality of economic growth. / Our projections show that by 2020, Chinese real GDP per capita, in 2017 prices, will exceed US$10,000, an economic development milestone. By 2031, Chinese real GDP will surpass US real GDP (US$29.4 trillion vs US$29.3 trillion), making China the largest economy in the world. However, Chinese real GDP per capita will still lag behind the US significantly, amounting to only one‐quarter of that of the United States. By 2050, Chinese real GDP will reach US$82.6 trillion, compared to US$51.4 trillion for the United States. However, in terms of real GDP per capita, China will still lag significantly behind, at US$53,000, slightly less than the current level of US real GDP per capita, compared to US$134,000 for the United States.     

Vacancies and Unemployment in Australia

This article examines the extent to which the Mortensen–Pissarides model of labour market search can quantitatively match business cycle fluctuations in Australia. With productivity and job‐separation‐rate shocks, the model fails to produce substantial volatility among unemployment or vacancies, a result similar to Shimer's (2005) findings for the United States. Examining a broader range of shocks significantly increases the magnitude of business cycle fluctuations, but still only explains roughly 25 per cent of labour market volatility. The implied volatility of wages in the model is similar to that in the data and hence excessive wage flexibility is unlikely to be central to the failure of the model as claimed in the literature.     

Economic Growth and Productivity Gains from Capital Inflow: A Rejoinder

Journal of Quantitative Economics -     

Why Punish? Social reciprocity and the enforcement of prosocial norms

Recently economists have become interested in why people who face social dilemmas in the experimental lab use the seemingly incredible threat of punishment to deter free riding. Three theories with evolutionary microfoundations have been developed to explain punishment. We survey these theories and use behavioral data from surveys and experiments to show that the theory called social reciprocity in which people punish norm violators indiscriminately explains punishment best.JEL Classification: C91, C92, D64, H41 Correspondence to: Jeffrey P. CarpenterWe thank Carolyn Craven, Corinna Noelke and two referees for comments, and Middlebury College for financial assistance. In addition, Carpenter acknowledges the support of the National Science Foundation (SES-CAREER 0092953).     

缓解中美贸易摩擦的战略分析——基于中国产业集群的视角

近年来,中国凭借产业集群获得了巨大的国际竞争力。中国产业集群的特点是产量大、劳动密集和生产成本低,其明显缺点是生产效率低、污染严重、附加值低。这些缺点为国外愈演愈烈的对中国反倾销及其它指责提供了口实。中美有各自的优势,两者的合作,将不仅能够促进中国产业集群的转型升级,而且将大大缓解中美间的贸易摩擦。     

Some Empirical Evidence of the Efficacy of Job Matching in Urban Labor Markets

Theory predicts that workers in cities are more likely to engage in job search, ceteris paribus, due to market efficiencies associated with greater job density. However, if job search is more efficient in urban markets, then the quality of a given job match should also tend to be higher in cities, ceteris paribus. Employed workers living in cities might then be expected to search less than their nonurban counterparts. In this latter instance, it is not city residency itself that makes search less likely, but rather the positive correlation between city residency and job match quality. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, this prediction is confirmed: The estimated coefficient on an indicator of urban residency is found to be near zero and statistically insignificant in models of employed search that omit proxies for job match quality. When job match proxies are included in the models, the estimated coefficient on urban residency becomes positive and highly significant. This result suggests that workers are not only more likely to engage in employed search in urban labor markets, but also tend to find more productive job matches in cities over time.