Managing The Volatility Of Gaap Earnings

Abstract

The adoption of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 97 (SFAS 97) eliminated the “lock-in” concept introduced in SFAS 60. Since many of the actuarial assumptions used in the calculation of the deferred acquisition cost (DAC) asset are difficult to predict over an extended period of time, “dynamic unlocking” was a sensible solution. Although this “dynamic unlocking” keeps the assumptions in line with recent experience, it comes at a cost—increased volatility of GAAP earnings. Some of the causes of this volatility are warranted since it accentuates the effects on earnings due to certain changes in the underlying experience. Other causes of this volatility may be unwarranted because of a misapplication of the principles underlying SFAS 97 and SFAS 120 or the manner in which changes in experience were reflected. In addition, most analysts expect the amortization of deferred acquisition costs to increase when earnings are better than expected. Conversely, analysts expect the amortization of deferred acquisition costs to decrease when earnings are worse than expected. Often the amortization of deferred acquisition costs behaves in a manner contrary to their expectations. This article analyzes what causes this volatility, explains why the amortization can behave contrary to expectations, and suggests several techniques for minimizing these unwarranted results.     

Risk-Adjusted Economic Value Analysis

Abstract

The ability of commonly used profitability measures to reflect risk exposure appropriately is evaluated and found lacking. As an alternative, a modern portfolio theory approach, based on utility theory, is recommended. Generalized formulas for calculating risk-adjusted economic values by deriving risk adjustments from certainty equivalents are developed by using the Markowitz expected utility maxim. Practical applications are described. Where appropriate, simplifying assumptions are shown to result in closed-form solutions, thereby reducing the need for extensive, stochastic cashflow simulations. The resulting formulas can be used to measure financial performance on a risk-adjusted basis consistently across different lines of business or to evaluate risk exposures in strategic alternatives.     

Utility Functions

Abstract

This article is a self-contained survey of utility functions and some of their applications. Throughout the paper the theory is illustrated by three examples: exponential utility functions, power utility functions of the first kind (such as quadratic utility functions), and power utility functions of the second kind (such as the logarithmic utility function). The postulate of equivalent expected utility can be used to replace a random gain by a fixed amount and to determine a fair premium for claims to be insured, even if the insurer’s wealth without the new contract is a random variable itself. Then n companies (or economic agents) with random wealth are considered. They are interested in exchanging wealth to improve their expected utility. The family of Pareto optimal risk exchanges is characterized by the theorem of Borch. Two specific solutions are proposed. The first, believed to be new, is based on the synergy potential; this is the largest amount that can be withdrawn from the system without hurting any company in terms of expected utility. The second is the economic equilibrium originally proposed by Borch. As by-products, the option-pricing formula of Black-Scholes can be derived and the Esscher method of option pricing can be explained.     

Pricing Perpetual Options for Jump Processes

Abstract

We consider two models in which the logarithm of the price of an asset is a shifted compound Poisson process. Explicit results are obtained for prices and optimal exercise strategies of certain perpetual American options on the asset, in particular for the perpetual put option. In the first model in which the jumps of the asset price are upwards, the results are obtained by the martingale approach and the smooth junction condition. In the second model in which the jumps are downwards, we show that the value of the strategy corresponding to a constant option-exercise boundary satisfies a certain renewal equation. Then the optimal exercise strategy is obtained from the continuous junction condition. Furthermore, the same model can be used to price certain reset options. Finally, we show how the classical model of geometric Brownian motion can be obtained as a limit and also how it can be integrated in the two models.     

Cash-Flow Valuation and Value at Risk

The cash-flow valuation method (CFVM) has been developed in Canada for the valuation of insurance company annuity products. Its range of application is expected to be extended shortly to the valuation of most other life insurance company products. The CFVM is based on the use of “best-guess” assumptions, supplemented by specific provisions for adverse deviations. In this paper, special attention is paid to the calculation of the provision for adverse deviations with respect to the interest rate risk. We show that the determination of this provision is the analog for life insurance and annuity policy liabilities of the calculation by banks of Value at Risk (VaR) with respect to portfolios of securities held for trading.     

The Impact of the Inpatient Prospective Payment System and Diagnosis-Related Groups

Abstract

The outpatient prospective payment system for the Medicare program became effective Aug. 1, 2000, as mandated by the Balanced Budget Act of 1997. This outpatient program complements Medicare’s inpatient prospective payment system, which was introduced in 1983. A survey of the literature over the past 20 years is undertaken to review the effects of the inpatient prospective payment system and diagnosis-related groups (DRGs) on inpatient hospital utilization, expenditures, and outcomes. The level of the DRG payment has been questioned, as well as the process of adjusting the payment levels from one year to the next. In addition, past research has speculated that the DRG classification may not be sensitive to severity and is subject to coding ambiguities. These conclusions can be used as input to future research on the new outpatient program, as well as updating research on the inpatient program.