Deviations from Fundamentals in US and EU Stock Markets: A Comparative Analysis

Abstract

A ‘two-stage growth’ discounted cash flow (DCF) model is built to test whether changes in the underlying market fundamentals help to explain movements in stock prices. Empirical results on two samples of US and EU stocks show that the ‘fundamental’ earning price ratio (E/P) explains a significant share of cross-sectional variation of the observed E/P, this impact being stronger in the US market. It is also found that: (i) the fundamental component of the E/P has superior explanatory power than simpler measures of expected earnings growth; (ii) ‘non-fundamental’ components, interpreted as signals reducing asymmetric information (such as firm size, the number of forecasts and the chartist momentum), mitigate the role of the fundamentals; (iii) current deviations from the fundamentals are affected by ex post adjustment of publicly available information in the EU sample. It is argued that differences in regulatory environments and in the composition of investors between the US and EU financial systems may help to explain these comparative findings. Results appear consistent with the ‘market integrity hypothesis’ postulating that reliance on publicly observable fundamentals is higher when insider trading is lower.     

Information,belief elicitation and threshold effects in the 5X1000 tax scheme: a framed field experiment

In this paper, we study by means of a framed field experiment on a representative sample of the population the effect on people’s charitable giving of three, substantial and procedural, elements: information provision, belief elicitation and threshold on distribution. We frame this investigation within the 5X1000 tax scheme, a mechanism through which Italian taxpayers may choose to give a small proportion (0.5%) of their income tax to a voluntary organization to fund its activities. We find two main results: (i) providing information or eliciting beliefs about previous donations increases the likelihood of a donation, while thresholds have no effect; (ii) information about previous funding increases donations to organizations that received fewer donations in the past, while belief elicitation also increases donations to organizations that received most donations in the past, since individuals are more likely to donate to the organizations they rank first.     

GROWTH AND INCOME POVERTY IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: EVIDENCE FROM HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS

This paper provides evidence on growth and income poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Results are obtained by processing microdata from household surveys of 18 LAC countries covering the 1990s and early 2000s. Over this period the LAC economies experienced heterogeneous patterns of growth and poverty changes. Most countries in the region had a rather meager performance in terms of poverty reduction. Episodes of positive, significant and unambiguously pro-poor income growth have been rare in Latin America.     

Testing for heterogeneity of preferences in randomized experiments: a satisfaction-based approach applied to multiplayer prisoners’ dilemmas

We use experimental data from the ‘vote with the wallet’ multiplayer prisoner’s dilemma to investigate with a finite mixture approach the effect of a responsible purchase on players’ satisfaction. We find clear-cut evidence of heterogeneity of preferences with two groups of players that differ significantly in terms of effects of the responsible choice on satisfaction.     

Some Useful Concepts for Development Economics in the Tradition of Latin American Structuralism

The aim of this article is to provide a selective account of some of the most important conceptual contributions of the Latin American structuralist tradition to the area of development economics. We argue that this account may help modern development economics theory overcome visible limitations and develop in a more fruitful way. We trace back the origin of these conceptualizations and identify some recent and scant efforts to incorporate them into the mainstream economic development literature. We try to clarify the meaning of the concepts and amplify their current economic significance for developing countries. The constructs selected are: (1) structural change, (2) structural disequilibrium, (3) bottlenecks, (4) structural heterogeneity, (5) endogenous nucleus of technological dynamization, (6) social disarticulation, and (7) conflict‐led instability.